3 minute read
Track Soft 5 and rail out 4m from 1100m to 450m & true the remainder.
Race 1 2YO & 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1600m):
We open with a smaller field of improving three-year-olds on a surface that will likely get back to Good 4 by the start. Home track filly 2. Razella reloads off a five week freshen-up from a low draw. Showed good improvement to find the line last start at Kembla, and has been kept ticking over nicely at the trials.
Dangers: Emerging filly 1. Vivezza is set to jump a short price favourite after leading until the final strides on heavy going against a metro line-up, and is the obvious clear threat. Draws to control the tempo again, but still under the odds. Gap to the rest headed by 3. Think We're There who can rebound back on top of the ground at his fourth start after a shocker in heavy going at Taree. Backs up in 10 days with gear changes, and a leading city jockey takes over.
How to play it: Razella to win and quinella 1 and 2
Race 2 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1000m):
Back to the five furlongs in a more open affair strictly for the three-year-olds, and it shapes well for emerging colt 12. Cryptonic significantly on much firmer ground if the home stable goes this way at his second start. Rolled to the front here on debut, and kept finding to be beaten only a long neck. Dropping back 100m in trip is a plus, leading hoop sticks solid, and won a previous trial smartly on Good 4 rating.
Dangers: Big market watch on resuming Godolphin filly 11. Waterski who draws the outside gate, but is very forward bolting in the second of two trials. Must keep safe, likely leader 1. Duke Of Bronte who has found one better in all three provincial runs this prep, and back to this shorter trip puts him right in the mix again. Include both 2. Recruiter by Deep Field and on debut for the Hawkes stable; and home tracker 6. Nefetari also first-up in all exotics; while don't be surprised to see 3. Tomcat Flowers perform well above his big price, second-up behind a fair provincial debut.
How to play it: Cryptonic to win
Race 3 SUPER MAIDEN HCP (1300m):
Reloading off a 10-week break and strong finishing effort in a more than handy maiden at this track, 6. California Sunrise looms as the one to beat. That race quickly proved a decent formline with the third-placed runner then bolting in his maiden nine days later. Given plenty of time by Team Snowden via a smart trial win, she looks ready to win.
Dangers: Drawn immediately to the top selection's outside, 3. Cheergal may challenge for favouritism second-up at her third start, given the run of success for the Annabel Neasham stable. Will relish better placement back 100m on a firmer track after compounding badly from the front on debut at the Kensington course in heavy going. Over the odds on firmer going is 7. Skip A Beat second-up for the Gary Portelli yard; while both 2. Scissor Me Timbers back from metro opposition; and 12. La Belle Claire second-up on a 2kg weight drop; can run into the minor money.
How to play it: California Sunrise to win
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1100m):
Love the early value here about locally-trained filly 4. She's All It third-up in her first full prep. Hit the line fresh in a handy country maiden before only even to the line here in heavy going 16 days ago. Much better placed back on drier ground, staying over the trip.
Dangers: Emerging 1. Cryptonic has also been accepted to run in an earlier arce, but has the progression and tactical speed to overcome a wide draw here. Naturally track the betting on debutant 7. Blue Suede Hooves, a two-year-old by fashionable sire Blue Point in the Kim Waugh stable, who has won both lead-up trials in tidy fashion. Another good value first starter is 9. Titanium Miss who comes off two trials in rain-affected going for the Tracey Bartley yard; while 16. Nefertari goes in all exotics first-up, although more likely to start in an earlier race.
How to play it: She's All It to win
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m):
Strong three-way battle for favouritism looms here. Well-bred mare 4. Junebug only beat a moderate country field as a hot favorite on Australian debut, but she had to dig in on what was a testing surface. With that acclimatising run off a lengthy break, and much firmer going, she can improve significantly getting out to this trip.
Dangers: 3. New Forest is a serious threat for an often underrated provincial stable. Held his ground okay as a clear-cut favorite when fresh before breaking through at Kembla surging home from just off the speed. Would likely prefer it wetter, but this is well within his reach. Early favorite 2. Mickey's Medal has been solid to the line in two feature country races this prep, and gets blinkers added from the fence draw. Gap to the rest headed by ultra consistent 1. Good Once who finished best to win his maiden at Newcastle two starts ago, and hasn't missed a place in his last five around the provincial circuit.
How to play it: Junebug to win
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1300m):
Progressive metro filly 1. Beauty Rising should have won last start at this track in a deeper BM 64 when just getting a checkered path at a vital time in the straight before storming late to miss by a nose. Has far more to offer than her record suggests, and she was considered good enough to tackle Listed company last spring. Looks suitably treated at the weights after the claim against this lot. The one to beat having been scratched from Canterbury on Wednesday to be saved for this.
Dangers: Emerging stablemate from the Neasham yard 5. Verbil can mount a challenge. Swept home to win on debut at Gosford before even to the line in city grade on a Heavy 9. Must include 4. Lulumon, who has been in the money and attacking the line well all prep, and again draws to get good cover off speed. Sparingly raced 3. Escutcheon second-up; and improving 8. Das Kapital on a seven day back-up; can both figure in the minor money.
How to play it: Beauty Rising to win
Race 7 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1800m):
Home track filly 9. Be Real is primed to win, especially with the main market rival being preferred at Wednesday's canterbury meeting. Bolted in her maiden at the provincials two starts back before hitting the line late at big odds in BM 68 company at Warwick Farm.
Dangers: Keep very safe 3. Gulf Of Mexico back on top of the ground second-up, with a superior jockey taking over; while 4. Zerkhan heads the rest, but would need to improve significantly after a poor effort on the Kensington track third-up. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Be Real to win
Race 8 MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m):
One of the tougher and widest races on the program is saved for last. Lightly raced six-year-old 1. Restrictions finds a winnable race resuming at big odds. Sports blinkers for the first time off two progressive trials for a stable who likes to strike fresh, and drawn to get the right run on or just behind the speed.
Dangers: Big watch on talented and speedy 2. South of India who resumes for only his fourth start behind a quiet trial. Led them a merry dance to win both starts at the provincials last prep, but a wide draw and more weight could prove a real leveller in a bigger field. Another one resuming 6. Layin' Four has also trialled well, and is building a nice record having won twice and placed a further seven times from 14 starts. Expect significant third-up improvement from 3. Drums Of War getting back on firmer ground; while both 5. Boss, a stablemate of the top selection and also resuming off two trials with gear changes; and 11. Struff first-up; can add value into exotic bets.
How to play it: Restrictions each way
BEST BETS:
R3 6. CALIFORNIA SUNRISE
R6 1. BEAUTY RISING
BEST VALUE:
R4 4. SHE'S ALL IT
