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Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday's Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 1:25PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1000 METRES)
Like 1. Shalaa Gold, whose debut run was full of merit at this track a fortnight ago in a high-rating race. The colt led his rivals up at an even tempo, accelerated hard and went down fighting to finish second to a smart type in Emirate. Further, that race produced an extremely strong last section figure even after adjusting for track deterioration, and the big gap to third confirmed the quality. He has come in on a solid base figure, will roll forward and has a race experience edge. It's worth noting that the Trainer/Jockey combination of Bjorn Baker/Josh Parr, when teaming up together over the past 100 times, has had 19 winners at a profit on turnover of 28.9%.
Dangers: Debutant 2. Apex has moved well in two trials and has a strong platform to kick off his career. He is coming through a high-pressure heat at Rosehill, where he showed gate speed and, although ridden out, that will give him a solid fitness base. 9. Tartaglia always gave the impression that he would come back improved in his second preparation, and he has gone to the line full of energy in two trials. 11. Private Life will be fitter and benefited from the outing on debut at Canterbury. He is a key late-market watch.
How to play it: Shalaa Gold WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 2:00PM KIA ORA PRAGUE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Leaning towards 3. Tannenburg at the odds and expecting him to improve sharply in this event. The lightly raced galloper drifted in the market first-up at Kembla Grange after only having the one soft trial leading into that assignment, and his sectional breakdown suggested he would come on from the run. He got too far back and had to make his run through the inferior ground, but still clocked the entire meeting's fastest 400m-200m split before peaking on his effort. He may still be one-off, but a senior rider in Nash Rawiller goes on, and he has a strong closing speed.
4. Little Jeanie SPed $1.50 when breaking through for her maiden win last start at Canterbury, and she ran slick time relative to the day after adjustments. She has style, James McDonald sticks and she has trialled between runs, which will keep her up to the mark. 5. Professor Pickles is rock-hard fit and will roll forward. 2. Fiddlers Green is a consistent type who maps to have all favours from the kind draw.
How to play it: Tannenburg WIN ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 2:35PM PRECISE AIR PLATE (1200 METRES)
Import 5. Inquiring Minds' debut run had merit in a strong form race at Kembla Grange 20 days ago, producing two subsequent winners. The four-year-old raced wide with cover, wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape, but knuckled down hard to finish second with an improver's action. Further, he built through his gears well and recorded one of the meeting's fastest final 200m splits. Everything about his ratings/sectional profile suggests he can only step off that effort, and the rise to 1600m is ideal. In addition, James McDonald rides, and he has a favourable map.
Dangers: 3. Time Quest resumes off a 56-day break and will still have residual fitness from last campaign. He historically races well fresh, and his first-up run from last prep was solid when he raced in a stronger grade. He maps well and can sprint hard. The blinkers go back on 9. Wild Calm and the step back in distance suits. 1. The Little Pumper can improve back onto a drier surface and respect 4 Go Troppo's last start SP.
How to play it: Inquiring Minds WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 3:10PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (2400 METRES)
Like 11. Anderson Bridge, who can improve sharply, gets back onto a direr surface where he produces his peak figures and has a positive race setup here. Happy to forgive his past two starts on testing ground, but his prior effort in the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) was solid where he had excuses. Repeating that effort will make him hard to hold out here, and James McDonald rides for the first time from the inside gate.
Dangers: 12. O'Ziggy has gone to a new level this prep, and he was brave in defeat last start at Hawkesbury in a stronger grade. He always faced the breeze in a very fast tempo and was left in front too early whilst the other on-pace runners faded. He is now at optimal fitness and will roll forward. 4. Gottabesavvy was a flashing light win last start at Warrnambool, but the clock backed up his visual late strength with the gelding running the second-fastest last 200m split of the meeting. Nash Rawiller sticks, and he will be savaging the line late. 7. Though Provoking was honest last start and 13. Bullets High has had excuses in his past couple of starts.
How to play it: Anderson Bridge WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 3:45PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
10. Pink Cashmere represents value, and this looks like a target race by the stable. The mare was asked to win a recent trial at this track and possesses a solid fresh record. Historically, her first-up runs from a figure's perspective, rate to win this race, and she receives a favourable setup. The Ciaron Maher galloper will need luck from the inside draw, but Jason Collet rides, and she races at her home track.
Dangers: 5. Best Intent surged to the line to score first-up at Wagga, and she clocked the fastest final 200m split of the meeting. She has come back improved and can step off that effort. Forget 6. Llanddwyn's first-up run at Canterbury, where she had no luck whatsoever. She can bounce back here from the inside gate and James McDonald rides. 2. Perennial will improve after a solid first-up run after always facing the breeze. Market watch on 4. Global Empress who has trialled well enough.
How to play it: Pink Cashmere WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 4:20PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
4. Fleetwood resumes as a gelding and has trialled well in preparation for this assignment. The Godolphin galloper has moved well in two heats and gone to the line not extended, indicating he is ready to sprint well fresh. He went to a new level last campaign, and his SP in the Listed Gosford Guineas must be respected prior to him spelling, albeit he had no luck. James McDonald rides from barrier one, and, with even luck, expect him to be in the finish.
Dangers: 6. Storm The Ramparts gets the blinkers back on, and he is two from two when they have been reapplied. He exerted all his energy between the 600m-200m first-up at Kensington before peaking on his run. He would've only come on from that effort, and he maps well. 9. Accredited is another improving type who looks set for a big campaign, and he'll be savaging the line late on his home track. Add 12. Physical Graffiti and 2. Flying Destiny.
How to play it: Fleetwood WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 4:55PM OLE KIRK @ VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Leaning towards 8. Atlantic Ocean, whose last three wins have come at this track, and he maps to be smothered away getting an economical run in the anticipated high-pressure event. The gelding got the good run through first-up at Canterbury, but he wanted to keep picking up to the line and ran third behind subsequent placegetter The Instructor. Any improvement from that effort puts him in the finish, and he represents value. Each-way.
Dangers: 14. Pure Alpha resumes off 126 days, and he went out on a career peak figure before spelling last prep. He has key attributes and will be savaging the line. Expect an aggressive ride from the inside draw on 4. Let's Try with this galloper being much more suited to leading and happy to forgive his last start. 5. Gelatin had to make his run through the inferior ground first-up and add 3. Able Willie to wider exotics.
How to play it: Atlantic Ocean E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Bet: Race 3 # 5 - Inquiring Minds
Next Best: Race 1 # 1 - Shalaa Gold
Best Value: Race 7 # 8 - Atlantic Ocean
