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Chris Scholtz looks at the historical burden Capitalist will carry into his return to racing in Saturday’s San Domenico Stakes at Rosehill.
Capitalist, soon to be crowned Australia’s champion two-year-old for the 2015/16 season, will again command the spotlight heading into the delayed start of his three-year-old campaign at Rosehill on Saturday.
Capitalist, who finished his two-year-old season with four wins and a second from five starts, was scheduled to resume at Randwick last Saturday against older rivals in the Missile Stakes under favourable weight-for-age conditions.However trainers Peter and Paul Snowden pulled Capitalist out of that G2 contest over 1200m some 48 hours before the race to avoid subjecting him to a stressful first-up test on a seriously heavy track.
He now goes to the G2 San Domenico Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill on Saturday against his own age but under more testing weight conditions as he will carry a 4kg penalty for his win in the G1 Golden Slipper win in March.
He will be carrying 60kg under the set weights and penalties conditions and will concede between 2kg and 6kg to his rivals.Monday’s San Domenico nominations attracted only eight rivals for Capitalist and there is only one Group winner among them, being the New Zealand G3 winner Manolo Blahniq who is now prepared in Victoria by Tony Noonan.
Manolo Blahniq will carry 58kg with a 2kg penalty for winning the G3 Eclipse Stakes at Ellerslie in January.The Snowdens have also nominated the unbeaten Russian Revolution but early reports suggest the stable intends sending him to Melbourne for a start in the G3 Vain Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday to avoid a clash with his high profile stablemate.
That leaves the talented Star Turn, trained by John, Michael and Wayne Hawkes, and Gerald Ryan’s unbeaten colt Tango Rain as perhaps the most serious rivals for Capitalist among the original nominations, allowing for the possibility of some additions after entries were extended until Tuesday.Star Turn and Tango Rain will both carry 56kg, the minimum weight for colts, as they are yet to win a Group or Listed race. However it’s worth noting Star Turn’s only win was recorded in the Pierro Plate, a race worth $150,000 but not carrying black type.
Star Turn last raced in the Golden Slipper, finishing sixth behind Capitalist but making up ground from the back half of the field to be beaten 3.2 lengths. Two recent trial wins indicate he has made impressive improvement since the autumn.The only filly nominated for the San Domenico is the Joe Pride-trained Kentucky Miss, a speedy two-time winner at Warwick Farm and Wyong who will be carrying 54kg.
The bigger burden Capitalist carries on Saturday is the often referred to jinx on Golden Slipper winners being able to reproduce their winning form as three-year-olds or olderThe historical concern for Capitalist is that failures by Golden Slipper winners in the San Domenico are double their success rate as four – Flying Spur, Calaway Gal, Dance Hero and Vancouver - were all beaten in the race when starting their 3YO seasons.
Note that the San Domenico was run at 1000m, first at Warwick Farm then Randwick, until 2011 when it was extended to 1100m and moved to Rosehill.THE SLIPPER JINX – FACT OR FICTION?
When Vancouver, undefeated as a juvenile, finished an underwhelming fourth in last year’s San Domenico Stakes (in what was ultimately his final career start) he became the ninth Golden Slipper winner since 1995 to go winless among those to race on in their later years.The others have been Mossfun, Overreach, Crystal Lily, Stratum, Polar Success, Calaway Gal, Catbird, and Prowl.
Sebring and Merlene did not race beyond their 2YO seasons.Conversely there have also been some notable achievements by Golden Slipper winners as older horses in the same period that most would agree outweighs the record of the non-winners:-
- Flying Spur despite his San Domenico loss won three more times including the G1 Australian Guineas and G1 All-Aged Stakes- Guineas won three more at G2 and G3 level.
- Belle Du Jour won another five races including the G1 Newmarket Handicap- Ha Ha won four including the G1 Flight Stakes
- Dance Hero regrouped from his San Domenico loss to win four times including the G1 Salinger Stakes- Miss Finland won eight more races including three G1s in the Thousand Guineas, VRC Oaks and Australian Guineas
- Forensics won four including the G1 Queen Of The Turf and G1 Myer Classic- Sepoy won five including the G1 Manikato Stakes and G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes
- Pierro won five including the G1 Canterbury Stakes and G1 George Ryder Stakes- From 1989 to 1994 every Golden Slipper winner – Courtza, Canny Lad, Tierce, Burst, Bint Marscay and Danzero - won Group races in later seasons .
At this point of time I am happy to think with some confidence that Capitalist will be adding his name to this honour roll.My confidence is based on a comparison of his current Timeform rating compared with other leading youngsters of the past 16 seasons.
While Capitalist’s juvenile TF rating of 122 ranked him only second on the 2YO list last season behind Extreme Choice (123) his figure is right on the average for the leading Timeform juveniles since 2000.While Pierro is way out in front with his TF rating of 127, Capitalist ranks equal or above 12 of this century’s 2YO rating leaders.
Those 2YOs ahead of Capitalist are Pierro (127, 2011/12); Dance Hero (125, 2003/04); Amelia’s Dream (124, 2007/08), Sepoy (124, 2010/11); Viscount (123, 2000/010); Meurice (123, 2006/07); Phelan Ready/Real Saga (123, 2008/09) and Extreme Choice (123, 2015/16).The top raters in the other seasons have been:
122 Untouchable (2002/03); Stratum (2004/05); Crystal Lily (2009/10); Vancouver (2014/15)121 Bel Esprit (2001/02); Overreach (2012/13)
120 Miss Finland/Nadeem Danleigh (2005/06)119 Earthquake/Mossfun/Rubick (2013/14)
