3 minute read
The Tasmanian Racing Club’s big weekend of racing starts on Friday with Schweppes Tasmanian Derby Day to be run in the twilight zone in Hobart.
The Strutt Stakes is the second 3YO feature on the day and while both have attracted limited numbers, the same can't be said for the Group 3 Bow Mistress with 13 acceptors.
With a quick back-up into Sunday's Ladbrokes Hobart Cup Day program, punters may be faced with a decent number of scratchings across the two days thanks to horses accepting across both meetings.
The rail is in the true position for Friday with fine weather forecast.
R1 W L Shields Maiden, 1100m
Princess Matoaka (10) was a good run resuming, unable to slot in from a wide draw she was best of the rest behind Muscle Up who'll have supporters later in the day. Unfortunately, she's drawn off the track again. ELMAJAY (12) led that race as she's done all campaign but battled in the run to the line. Back to 1100m is likely to suit her. MOVE LIKE JAGGER (1) had good market support in Devonport but bookies kept the cash as they often have with him. Back on his home track is only likely to be a positive. CO ACCUSED (6) and ROYAL SCOTCH (13) face the starter for the first time with ordinary barrier draws. HER THOUGHTS (7) hasn't been great in two trials leading in but she's quite exposed on track as a 14-start maiden. CHEEKY WORD (5) trialled nicely in good time for the day, much quicker than stablemate CORA THE EXPLORER (11) who saluted the judge first on the same Longford session. ROHZHAE (2) had his chance settling on the speed last time and has placed more often than not in his five Hobart runs. STEEL MIST (3) caught the eye running on in the same race but that's proven to be his racing pattern. GALAN (16) should've finished closer than fifth when he resumed at the T&D last campaign.
Staking Strategy: Hard to know what to make of the back straight trials but Co Accused did enough to the eye and the booking of Froggy would seemingly be a sign of intent. Also something on Galan who will be a tough watch from back in the field bit I think he's a horse with ability. 1 unit to win on Co Accused (6) and Galan (16)
R2 Ladbroke It! Class 1 Hcp, 1100m
Eyes For Ash (1) controlled a slowly run affair to win at the T&D last start. If there is more to that performance than meets the eye it can be proven in the opener. CHAMPAGNE CINDERS (5) has good early toe and that was evident in a recent Longford trial. She has a stack of gear changes for her resumption. TARKINE EAGLE (2) disappointed at two runs back in November and hasn't been seen since. His best would be up to this as it would for NINA CARMELLA (3) who pulled off a successful plunge on debut but has been ordinary in two subsequent runs. UPSET (4) was a late scratching on Sunday and lines up here five days later. He finished a length ahead of Perkins in his trial who ran a cheeky race in Launceston. DAWN EAGLE (7) was too bad to be true back here in December and there does appear good heat in this race which may enable one to finish over the top if the leaders are stopping.
Staking Strategy: Pretty moderate class 1 and one I really don't have much of a handle on. It's a good map here for Tarkine Eagle who perhaps has come back a better horse than then one we saw prior to a spell. 1 unit to win on Tarkine Eagle (2)
R3 Ladbrokes Mates Mode Bm70 Hcp, 1600m
Chinchero (3) had heavy support resuming and ran well in defeat, beaten by Gee Gee Can Win who is racing in career best form. He's unplaced in three previous Hobart runs but has a nice middle draw to improve that record. ROMARY (2) is another runner second-up. She led at a genuine clip last time and condition perhaps gave out in the home straight. She'll strip fitter here. WE DESERVE THIS (4) was under riding a long way from home there, unsuited dropping back in trip. Up to a mile is likely more suitable and he was a dominant T&D winner two starts ago. DID YOU DECIDE (5) rises sharply in class, particularly given limited form has come from his last start victory. VALLABAR (1) and SHAMPZ AGAIN (6) are capable of more than what they've shown recently, particularly in a race where the stable has four of the nine runners.
Staking Strategy: I had Did You Decide fourth fav in the race so him coming out at $2.80 has taken a lot of personal appeal from the race. That combined with the one stable having four of the seven runners and this becomes a race I won't be getting carried away with. Romary strips fitter and wasn't bad first-up. 1 unit to win on Romary (2)
R4 Graham Family Funerals Strutt Stakes, 2100m
Soul Choice (2) was well rated in front by Jordan Childs to give Dunkel all he could handle in the recent Launceston Guineas. There appears nothing close to the quality of him in this race and most punters will be expecting a barrier to box victory. JUST A NEEDS (1) won the Thousand Guineas, just wearing down the leader in the shadows of the post. She's unproven at the trip but has been excellent in the lead-up races. CLOUDY NIGHTS (3) was a bit plain in that race, particularly given she started $5.50. She was scratched on Sunday to run here. ELUSIVE PRINCESS (5) is maiden eligible, running her first career placing last start where she closed well after settling at the rear.
Staking Strategy: Not something I've done often for this Staking Strategy but I have Soul Choice $1.30 to 110% and with upwards of $1.50 readily available, she's a max bet. 10 units to win on Soul Choice (2)
R5 Schweppes Tasmanian Derby, 2200m
By the start of the quaddie Dunkel (1) may have had his Launceston Guineas win franked. He went as good as he could go there given the pace of the race and the runner-up was probably a touch flattered by the final margin. MIDNIGHT GLOW (2) finished a spot behind him when they met at Flemington. He has since been to the trials where he was kept under a hold and winkers go back on here. CABLE DANCER (4) finished ahead of ABRUPT (6) last start when they took on older horses at Kilmore. They each have a win under the belt, but they'll likely need the top couple to be off their game. UNIQUE GLOW (8) is a filly taking on the boys after racing last Sunday in a maiden/class 1 run at breakneck speed. She was very good there but that's the type of run that could also prove taxing. BERSERKER (5) broke through for his maiden win at start four where he knocked off a subsequent winner. He's on trial over 2100m when the rest of the opposition at least have one staying run under the belt.
Staking Strategy: I have Dunkel a fair way ahead of Midnight Glow and then Midnight Glow a fair way ahead of the race. Perhaps a quinella with the two will extract a bit of value from a race where the favourite is $1.30, and a small bet on Midnight Glow in the event of an upset. 1 unit to win on Midnight Glow (2). 4 units on 1,2 quinella
R6 Carbine Club Plate, 1200m
Most of these come via the inaugural running of the Blackflash won by Miami Sun (2) in dominant fashion despite starting $21. He swooped past the field after settling back from a wide draw, tactics that seem likely to be repeated from barrier 13/13. FAKE MAGIC (3) took inside runs from the pole draw to finish best of the rest there and he has drawn the same marble again. GEEGEE JET BY (1) and SISTINE (7) each covered a bit of ground in that race but haven't exactly drawn for a softer run. MUSCLE UP (6) is the main player bringing a different formline. He was very brave in defeat here two starts ago and justifiably franked that form with a soft win in Launceston. He draws favourably and it's hard to not see him being in the finish given he's run in the quinella at all five career starts.
Staking Strategy: A lot of scratchings from this race but most of them were rough in the market. Miami Sun has been very impressive in two Hobart wins and a few of those "road blocks" coming out should help Brooke Hanham navigate a passage from back in the field. 4 units to win on Miami Sun (2)
R7 Kevin Sharkie Bow Mistress, 1200m
Dance To Dubai(1) arrives as comfortably the highest rated horse in the race on the back of two dominant Moonee Valley victories. She was able to find the front and the rail easily enough in both of her wins before booting clear in the home straight. She'll have to use a bit of juice early if she is to cross here having drawn barrier 11. RIDUNA (4) looks the likely leader having drawn near the rail. She missed the kick at her most recent run, forced to race against her usual pattern. She's had a pair of recent trials and like others off a similar setup, you respect the stable targeting this race first-up. FOR REAL LIFE (5) has been freshened since a Flemington straight win and was close at the start prior. She draws to stalk the speed. BELSIELLE (3) also brings straight track form, albeit safely held in BM78 company. Craig Newitt obviously has a lot more experience on the track than most visiting hoops. EMBELLER (6) trialled well leading into this but appeared to have her chance in the two runs prior while this is a huge jump in class for IN HER STRIDE (12) who hasn't been seen publicly since July. QUEENBOROUGH FLYER (13) won the Lady Lynette quite comfortably but given her price, and the slow pace of the race, the form is a query. SIRENE STRYKER (10), EMILY (9) and MISS TUPPENCE (8) were all good from back in the field there while JAJA CHABOOGIE (7) had favours on speed. SUMMER FIRE (11) was very good with race shape against her first-up but this is a substantial rise in class.
Staking Strategy: A bit short for me this favourite who has been backed into even money at the time of writing. I like the run that For Real Life gets here, provided morning rain hasn't made the inside part of the track inferior ground. 1 unit each-way on For Real Life (5)
R8 The Hon. Madeleine Ogilvie Mp Bm62 Hcp, 1200m
Gee Gee Queen Bee(4) was smashed late in betting last time but was slowly out and then struggled finding clear air. The recipe for success was there that night, she's a horse that needs to be smothered and saved for a short burst. GEE GEE TRUE STORY (2) was second in the same race and was since a bit plain when finishing sixth over the Launceston 1200m. It's been nine starts since he's had a senior rider on. NICCO THE GREEK (7) broke through for an overdue win to start 2023 at the T&D. He's only missed a place twice in 12 career starts. YANOSHA (5) put the handlebars down and broke their hearts to land some good bets last time out. No reason the same won't be repeated if he pings from the inside draw. ETOSHA (6) is one horse that may be able to pressure the leader if he jumps well. He hasn't been seen publicly since May. MAGIC TYPHOON (12) has been consistently around the mark in races like this all campaign. FREAK ON A LEAD (1) ran up to a big market drift resuming and there must be a query on whether he lines up with 62.5kg and no jockey named at the time of writing. Stablemate DEBRIEF (3) has won both of his Hobart starts but was safely held in a recent trial. MASCHERATA (8) appears to be trending the wrong way this campaign and is on trust after recent starts.
Staking Strategy: Following up on Gee Gee Queen Bee who we were a little stiff not to get the cash with last start. Saver on Yanosha who I expect will be trying to do what he did when leading throughout at the last Hobart meeting. 2 units to win on Gee Gee Queen Bee (4) and 1 unit to win on Yanosha (5)
