3 minute read

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $500,000 Polytrack Provincial-Midway Championships Final (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Audette (Kylie Gavenlock, Gosford): Won three of her past four and six of nine overall so she's a mare with a great will to win. May have been a sitting shot first-up in the qualifier on her home track as she was run down late then overcame a wide run to score at 1300m at Warwick Farm. She's only been beyond that trip once for a third at Muswellbrook in a feature race almost a year ago. In her favour is the wet track, she loves it, and she has pattern that should see her somewhere near the pace to have her chance.

2. Acquitted (Kris Lees, Newcastle): Had some excuses for his fourth when resuming in a qualifier on his home track then very well ridden sweeping around them and putting the race away before the turn at Wyong to make his way into this race. He's a proven heavy track performer so that's on his side. Where he'll find himself from the gate is a question mark, making significant ground may be tough if the ground it trying.

3. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees, Newcastle): Possibly found the 1200m sharp when resuming at Gosford though he previously hadn't finished worse than second when first-up. Couldn't have been more impressive rounding them up from near last in the Wild Card at Newcastle when back out to this trip. He's proven in the wet, he is a backmarker generally so will likely be giving away a start and is another who will need a fair pattern but he's very smart and is a big chance.

4. True Crime (Kim Waugh, Wyong): Generally runs his best races from the front and he showed a heap of fight to lead all the way in his qualifier at Newcastle a month ago. As a two-year-old he won on a bottomless heavy track at Randwick so the going won't bother him and he will put himself in the race rolling forward from that middle to wide gate. He's probably not ideally weighted for a three-year-old, the only of his age in the race, but he's tough and a win wouldn't shock.

5. Kayobi (Sam Kavanagh, Newcastle): Unbeaten in four starts for Kavanagh stable and hasn't really ever looked like being beaten in any of them. He easily had Audette's measure in winning the Gosford qualifier first-up, looking to have plenty in hand, and he'll only be better for going to 1400m. Has won on a heavy, drawn to be not too far off them and he does look the most promising horse in the race. Expecting him to be hard to stop.

6. Spangler (Kris Lees, Newcastle): He might want a mile now but he ran home nicely from the back to chase home Loch Eagle in the Wild Card at his third shot at qualifying for this race. A wet track doesn't worry him and it will come down to pattern as to whether he can have an impact. He will go back to last or thereabouts from the outside gate so if they overcook it up front and you can storm home out wide he's capable of winning.

7. Willinga Freefall (Kris Lees, Newcastle): Another to have three shots at making this Final and he just scraped in by holding third in the Wild Card. It was a handy effort on the speed off a wide gate but he'll need to do it again here. Probably wants some improvement in the track so that's the major drawback.

8. Phearson (Brad Widdup, Hawkesbury): Has come of age with three wins on end including quite a strong performance first-up to win a qualifier on his home track. His two wins before a spell were on quite wet ground so that's a tick and he has that on speed racing style that will see him get his chance. There may be a few with more upside given he's a five-year-old but he's not yet reached his ceiling it seems.

9. Cloudland (Kris Lees, Newcastle): Had some raps on him early winning his first three starts but he did measure up well in a close third in a Benchmark 72 at his fourth. Resumed with a good effort chasing home Short Shorts in a Kembla qualifier that was ran quite fast and he was around third in the run most of the way. Have some small doubts when it comes to 1400m on a heavy track in this class but he's done nothing wrong to date.

10. Herb (Benjamin Smith, Kembla Grange): Attacked the line strongly to run second in the qualifier on his home track and he's had two runs since then. Sound enough effort in a Midway over a mile then back to 1400m and he was placed under 61kg at Kembla. That was a Class 1 though. If he runs up to the second to Essonne he's some hope but place best.

11. Short Shorts (Brad Widdup, Hawkesbury): Reliable mare who did a great job chasing a tearaway leader first-up at this trip and then putting over three lengths on them to win easily. Proven in Benchmark company in town, likes to go forward in her races and is competent in the wet. If that fresh run didn't take too much out of her, she did run fast time, she's capable of being in the finish.

12. Essonne (Richard Litt, Warwick Farm): Five wins from nine starts says she's a talented mare and she handled the soft 6 in good style to win her qualifier back in late February. She's been on ice since then and won a trial to keep her ticking over. From the draw she should settle around midfield. Her heavy 10 failure was in July last year at Warwick Farm where she ran fourth of six so any improvement in the track would be a plus for her. Regardless she can't be left out.

13. Sebrenco (Tracey Bartley, Wyong): Just failed to run down True Crime in the Newcastle qualifier and she should be at her peak for this third-up. Last win was on a heavy track at this distance in October. She may have to do some work from the wide gate to find a position but if she does land handy without overdoing it she's a realistic chance. She has a 50 per cent top three strike rate.

14. Cross The Rubicon (Brad Widdup, Hawkesbury): Started $21 when running into second behind Acquitted at Wyong to make the field for this race. Ran well first-up behind Phearson on her home track. She's not too far away but she hasn't won for over a year now and that's the concern coming into a race certainly no weaker than she's met of late. Wide gate a minus for her too though she does tend to get back.

15. Denetta (Damien Lane, Wyong): Was a $41 chance when she hit the line into second behind Phearson at Hawkesbury a month ago. Hasn't raced or trialled since then. She's a consistent mare with top three finishes in seven of her 11 starts and she has the advantage of the inside gate. But on face value she does need a career best to be in the finish.

SELECTIONS:
5 Kayobi
3 Loch Eagle
11 Short Shorts
12 Essonne