3 minute read
A look at how Saturday’s Mornington Cup victor stacks up with past winners
The Melbourne Racing Club would probably concede the Caulfield Cup ballot exemption it has attached to the Mornington Cup has not been the roaring success it would have hoped.
The 'golden ticket' has been on offer since 2011 and more often than not the horse who has won the 2400-metre Listed event has not even made it to the MRC's $5 million flagship event six months later.
Of the 12 that have been won, only three have been taken up.
Kings Will Dream was considered the most likely Mornington Cup winner to have an impact in the Caulfield Cup and he ran a solid race in the 2018 Caulfield Cup, finishing sixth as $5.50 favourite behind Best Solution.
The others to have run are Tuscan Fire, who finished 12th at $71 in 2013, and Crystal Pegasus, who was a $101 chance last year, when 14th behind Durston.
But the MRC has good reason to believe that this is the year the Mornington Cup form could hold up in a Caulfield Cup.
Right You Are now owns the highest rating posted by a Mornington Cup winner since Timeform started assessing the race in 1992.
The six-year-old So You Think gelding ran to 119 when defeating Hezashocka – who also rated 119on Saturday – by a nose, the fifth Mornington Cup decided by that margin since the ballot exemption was introduced.
Tally, who rated 117 in 2017, was the previous highest-rating winner of the ballot exemption era, while Kings Will Dream and Mount Popa – who both rated 115 – the only others to rate above 110.
If Right You Are bumps into a Dunaden (130), Incentivise (129) or Admire Rakti (127) at Caulfield on October 22 victory would be unlikely, but if he strikes a race like last year, which Durston won in just 110, or 2017, when Boom Time won in 117, he would only need to repeat Saturday's number to be a force.
But winning a Caulfield Cup with a sub-120 rating is rarity.
The spring's other 2400-metre Group 1 handicap, on the other hand, is rarely won by a horse who runs to 120.
In the past 30 years, only twice has The Metropolitan, run at Randwick on the first Saturday in October, been won by a horse going better than 119; Coco Cobanna (2000) and Magic Hurricane (2015), who both rated 121.
Herculian Princess (2010), Glencadam Gold (2012), Mirage Dancer (2020) and Montefilia (2021) all won in 119.
Last year's 'Metrop' was won by No Compromise in 112 with Foundry having got away with the 2017 edition with a 107 performance.
So, Right You Are has a guaranteed Caulfield Cup start and trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace can be confident he will acquit himself well given his progression this season but, on Saturday's rating, The Metropolitan is the 2400m Group 1 they could head into spring confident about winning.
Below is the list of ballot exemption Mornington Cup winners and the rating they ran that day with the Caulfield Cup winner of that year and their rating in brackets.
2011 Guyno 109 (Southern Speed 118)
2012 Norsqui 104 (Dunaden 130)
2013 Tuscan Fire 108 (Fawkner 121)
2014 Instrumentalist 103 (Admire Rakti (127)
2015 Banca Mo 108 (Mongolian Khan 126)
2016 Berisha 107 (Jameka 121)
2017 Tally 117 (Boom Time 117)
2018 Kings Will Dream 115 (Best Solution 125)
2019 Self Sense 108 (Mer De Glace 122)
2020 Aktau 108 (Verry Elleegant (120)
2021 Mount Popa 115 (Incentivise (129)
2022 Crystal Pegasus 110 (Durston 110)
