3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Gosford meeting. Selections based on a soft to good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
R1 - 12:00PM TOOHEYS SPECIAL SHELLY BEACH GC CLASSIC MAIDEN (1600 M)
6. Justela, who profiles well for this, is on an upwards ratings spiral this preparation and has a strong platform. The mare wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape last start at Kembla, but to her credit, once balancing up, she found the line well to run second and ran strong closing splits. She maps to have all favours, is proven at the trip, and jockey Jason Collett sticks. Hard to beat with even luck.
Dangers: Forget 8. Never Bird's last start at this track/distance when she was heavily checked and went through the line not tested. Prior to that effort, she was honest on debut, and repeating that performance/figure can put her in the finish. 2. Contarelli resumed for his new trainer Nathan Doyle 9 days ago at Newcastle. Further, he led but felt the pinch over the concluding stages and held on for fourth. He will be fitter for that and will roll forward. Market watch 7. Lovely Thoughts who is having her first start and 1600m suits.
How to play it: Justela WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
R2 - 12:35PM TOOHEYS ELANORA HOTEL LEGENDS CLASSIC C1 (1000 ME)
1. Chipper resumes and has trialled well enough recently at Gosford in a fast time heat relative to the morning. The three-year-old raced well last prep when finally striking drier tracks. Moreover, he brings a strong SP profile, solid form lines throughout his career, and multiple winning ratings. Expect him to roll forward from the wide draw and take some catching.
Dangers: 4. Fourth Spargo was an alarming drifter in the betting first-up at Hawkesbury 21 days ago, and she had excuses. Further, she was blocked at a critical stage, halting her momentum, but even with that interference, she still clocked some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting. Expecting an aggressive ride early to utilise the inside draw. 5. Twitch brings a fitness edge and has been racing honestly this campaign. Key late market watch on 6. Yankees, who resumes off a 211-day break and won a recent trial at Hawkesbury with the blinkers on for the first time. 2. Chain Of Gold went out on a career peak figure before spelling last prep. He resumes and beat subsequent city winner Iowna Merc in his latest trial at Rosehill.
How to play it: Chipper WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
R3 - 1:10PM TOOHEYS 2.2 – EVERGLADES COUNTRY CLUB PLATE M (1100 M)
Tricky race and leaning towards 2. Encroachment who is now in the hands of trainer Matthew Smith and he resumes as a gelding. The lightly raced three-year-old has had two trials leading into this event and hasn't been extended in both heats. He has had a long-time off but expect an aggressive ride from the wide draw.
Dangers: 5. Sinner has a strong platform and is ready to peak third-up. He will appreciate the anticipated genuine tempo and hit the line hard. 11. Vancouvers Crown will be fitter and 3. Northumbria has been racing well without luck. Add 6. Lady Brulee to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Encroachment WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
R4 - 1:50PM TOOHEYS HOW DO YOU FEEL ENTRANCE LEAGUES M (1200 M)
Keen on 9. Misty Dreams, who receives a much more positive race setup here and is ready to peak third-up over more ground on a quick backup. The four-year-old has had too much to do in both of her starts this campaign due to being a victim of wide gates. She was restrained at Wyong last start and got too far back in the run. Moroever, she ran hidden closing sectionals, clocked the entire meeting's fastest 400m-200m split and ran on well into fourth. To further the merit of her performance, that race rated well relative to the day, and the margins throughout confirmed the quality. The Kim Waugh trained galloper can settle closer, has multiple winning ratings and expect her to be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 3. Mr Kennedy is coming through time/sectional merit races and was honest last start holding on for second behind smart galloper Ozzmosis. He brings the best last-start figure, will roll forward and take some catching. 6. Lady De Guise appreciated striking a dry surface last start at Kembla and was brave in defeat. Some query on her SP, but Jason Collett rides for the first time. Market Watch on 11. Notabadsmile, who is 44 days between runs and brings metropolitan form lines.
How to play it: Misty Dreams WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
R5 - 2:25PM TOOHEYS WHITE STAG DAVO RSL STAKES BM 64 (2600 M)
3. Reliable Dude had multiple factors against last start at Kembla, but to his credit, he overcame difficulties and ran on well into second place. The five-year-old wasn't suited to settling near the rear of the field in a farcical tempo, raced wide and ran the race's quickest closing splits. He is rock-hard fit, receives a significant barrier change allowing him to settle closer and is ready to step up in trip.
Dangers: 4. Mums The Boss, who represents value, comes through the same race as Reliable Dude but had no luck after being held up for most of the straight. She maps well and receives a gear change. 2. Gorgeous Zara is an improving stayer and has been ultra-consistent all prep. Add 6. Skymax and 12. Seething Chuck to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Reliable Dude WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
R6 - 3:05PM TOOHEYS OLD ETTALONG BOWLO DERBY BM 64 (1900 M)
4. Vandelay Style brings strong form lines to this event and drops back in grade. The mare was specked late in the trade last start at Rosehill but struggled with the sharp rise in class. However, her two prior runs were strong at the provincial level and repeating those performances/figures will put her in the finish. She is a consistent enough type, has tactical versatility and handles all conditions. Each-way.
Dangers: 3. Makadeel is a rock-hard fit and proven at the distance. He had excuses last start at Kembla Grange and brings a strong ratings profile to this event. 10. Dream Maiden hasn't won in a long-time, but she sets up well here, and Jason Collett sticks. Stablemate 13. Clear Blonde drops in grade and 1. King Kikau brings country open handicap form.
How to play it: Vandelay Style E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
R7 - 3:40PM TOOHEYS NEW – I FEEL LIKE A TOOHEYS CUP BM 64 (1200 M)
All key indicators suggest 5. Rebel Dean is ready to peak, and he has a positive race setup. The gelding hit the line hard last start in a solid time race to run second at this track/distance and beat the rest easily. His ratings/sectional profile and barrier propose he can run a peak figure in this event. Additionally, the gelding can settle closer and use his key asset of acceleration to sprint over the top of his rivals.
Dangers: 1. Fire And Ice is on a quick backup after bolting in seven days ago at Wyong in a similar grade race. The three-year-old had every chance but was heavily backed late in the trade and won easily. 4. Florino has been well found in early markets but is undefeated, maps to have all favours and can make the step-in class. 2. Grand Crusader is an honest on-pace type and will take some catching. Add 6. Belladeel to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Rebel Dean WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
R8 - 4:20PM TOOHEYS EXTRA DRY HOTEL GOSFORD STAKES BM 64 (1200 M)
4. Quilting has raced well in time/sectional merit races this campaign and drops significantly in grade here. She was solid last start in the Listed Denise's Joy Stakes (1100m) at Scone's standalone metropolitan meeting. Further, that race rated extremely well relative to the day, and the form has since been confirmed with a subsequent winner. The filly handles all conditions, can sprint off slow/fast tempos, has blinkers on for the first time and maps to have all favours from barrier one. Expect a bold showing.
Dangers: 3. Rose Crescent presents as a knockout chance who was blocked and lost all her momentum at a critical stage last start at Kensington. To her credit, she picked herself up and kept trying to the line. Aaron Bullock rides, and she can have the last shot. 1. Capitol Queen resumes and has trialled well enough at Kembla Grange, albeit over a month ago. The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace galloper bolted in on debut last prep and produced a career peak figure. She has a tricky draw, but repeating that performance/figure will put her in the finish. 5. Announcing returns, she improved with experience and from a ratings perspective each run last prep. The blinkers come off and expect her to hit the line hard. Add 2. Opito Ballerina to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Quilting WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Best Bet: Race 4 # 9 - Misty Dreams
Next Best: Race 8 # 4 - Quilting
Best Value: Race 7 # 5 - Rebel Dean
