3 minute read
The first Grand Slam of the year is upon us and once again, the bookies cannot see past Novak Djokovic for the Australian Open title.
The Aussie Open takes place between 14-28 January at Melbourne Park – one of the biggest tennis venues in the world – where last year more than 902,000 people attended the event.
All eyes will be on Djokovic, who is bidding for an unprecedented 25th Grand Slam title, and record-extending 11th men's Australian Open singles title. The Serb is no bigger than 11/10 to win Down Under and that is understandable given he won three of the four majors on offer in 2023.
Djokovic is 36 but still plays with such freedom. He is super-fast around the court and his playing style is an ode to artistic finesse. His mental strength also sets him apart from his peers. Ergo, given his record in Melbourne and how dominant he was in Slams for most of 2023, the 11/10 on him mopping up once again in Melbourne would ordinarily make plenty of appeal.
He gets a qualifier first up, and organisers will doubtless be hoping that he meets Britain's Andy Murray in round three. The pair have enjoyed some incredible battles down the years, yet for them to meet again in this particular major Murray will need to see off 30th seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry of Argentina in the opening round.
Djokovic is a rightful favourite, but there are question marks ahead of his opening match that will give his big rivals genuine hope. The great man struggled with a wrist problem in a straight-sets defeat to Alex de Minuar in the United Cup in Perth recently, and there is no guarantee he will be 100% fit when the tournament kicks off.
Then there is the Carlos Alcaraz factor. Alcaraz was the only man to beat Djokovic in a Grand Slam final last year, coming through a battle for the ages at Wimbledon in July.
'Carlitos' missed last year's event with a hamstring injury but arrives this week as a two-time major winner and with a deserved reputation as the brightest young star in tennis.
The Spaniard is a 10/3 second favourite and given he has already won a major on hardcourts (US Open) you cannot really argue with that price.
What is interesting though is the fact that Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner will all arrive in Melbourne without any tournament match practice so far in 2024. It kind of makes sense that veterans with Grand Slam ambitions like Djokovic (and before him Roger Federer) would try to conserve energy by landing at a Grand Slam event without playing a warm-up tournament. However, for the likes of Sinner, who is just 22, and Alcaraz, age 20, it is quite baffling.
Alcaraz meets Richard Gasquet in his opening match and will need to find his feet quickly after opting not to play any warmup events. Yet Gasquet in 2024 – while still owner of that exquisite backhand - is not the maverick danger he once was so it would be a seismic shock if the Spaniard lost to the French veteran.
Sinner has the power to take out anyone when he is in the mood, as he showed with that lights out run to the final of the ATP Finals in Milan at the back end of last year. He also beat Djokovic in the Davis Cup semis around the same time and is set for a big 2024. Medvedev is another who could go all the way, and he showed when winning the 2021 US Open he does not fear the big stage. Given how gruelling the season is, Medvedev has elected to spend a bit more time with his wife and their young daughter over the Christmas period. I guess we will only know whether that will prove a wise decision in a few weeks.
It is disappointing for organisers that Rafael Nadal pulled out of the Aussie Open with a muscle tear. Nadal has embarked on a farewell tour in 2024 and it would have been interesting to see Spain's Raging Bull line up here if he was fully fit.
In terms of a winner, I cannot advocate a lump on Djokovic given his recent wrist injury concerns, and while Alcaraz looks the most logical alternative, he also looks a little short.
In fact, it might be worth taking a leap of faith and having an each-way go on Grigor Dimitrov at 40/1 (who was 100/1 at the weekend but has obviously seen money come in for him). Dimitrov beat Holger Rune in the Brisbane International final to claim first title in six years recently, and the win clearly meant everything to him.
Before Brisbane, the Bulgarian's last title victory was the 2017 ATP World Tour Finals, meaning he endured a wait of 112 tournaments between wins on the ATP Tour. However it was the manner of his win in Brisbane that were so impressive. We have always known that backhand is elite. However, the Bulgarian was moving and serving so well. He was rock-solid all week, and if he arrives in Melbourne in the same mood then he is going to take some stopping.
He has been drawn in the third quarter, where Medvedev could await in round four. The Russian has a 6-3 head-to-head advantage over the Bulgarian, but interestingly Dimitrov won their last meeting at the Paris Masters in 2023.
