3 minute read
The NFL's postseason begins with Wildcard weekend with six franchises in action in the AFC Conference.
The Baltimore Ravens secured their path to the divisional round by claiming the AFC North title plus the #1 seed and await the outcome of this weekend's fixtures.
The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers will face-off this weekend with three berths remaining in the next round. We preview all three matchups from a betting perspective.
#5 Cleveland (11-6) @ #4 Houston (10-7)
A battle few may have expected coming into the season, the Houston Texans, led by first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, take a Cleveland Browns team headed by quarterback Joe Flacco – a long-time Baltimore Raven and a former Super Bowl MVP.
The bookies have the number five seed Cleveland as a –2.5-point favourite heading into the contest – perhaps a weak line given the Browns defeated the Texans 36-22 on enemy soil on December 24 – although the Texans were missing rookie sensation quarterback CJ Stroud.
In that game, it was wide receiver Amari Cooper who stole the show with 11 receptions for 265 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. Cooper has five 100+ yard receiving days on the season and over 77+ yards in his past three starts – developing a strong rapport with Flacco. A 75+ yard day coupled with a touchdown would pay at 23/10.
Speaking of Flacco, the veteran QB has thrown for 300+ yards in his last four starts, and 250+ in all five of his starts this season. He has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in all five games and at least one interception. 250 yards, two passing touchdowns and an interception is 11/4.
For Houston, QB Stroud is the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year and has amassed nine 250+ passing yard days in 2023. He has multiple touchdowns throws in eight of 15 games and has just three starts with interceptions. 250+ passing yards and a touchdown pass is 11/10 shot.
His main weapon is Nico Collins, a wide receiver who has 80+ receiving yards in four of his last six starts with two 190+ yard performances and four touchdowns. Collins has made the jump in year three and boasts 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns on the year.
Defensively, Myles Garrett is 5/11 to sack the quarterback – he has 14 on the season.
Parlay: Cleveland to win by 6.5 points, Joe Flacco to pass for 250 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, CJ Stroud to throw for 200 yards and a touchdown and Myles Garrett to record a sack – 16/1
#6 Miami (11-6) @ #3 Kansas City (11-6)
Wide receiver Tyreek Hill returns to his old stomping ground to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who have lost their aura of invincibility. Despite that, the Chiefs are –4.0-point favourites to advance to the divisional round.
The teams met at Arrowhead on November 5 with the Chiefs coming out on top 21-14. Offense was at a premium with Miami running back Raheem Mostart the star man in defeat, in defeat.
However, the Dolphins have a tendency to underperform against playoff calibre opposition. They have lost to Buffalo twice, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Baltimore in 2023, with their lone win over a postseason opponent a 22-20 triumph over Dallas on December 24.
KC, meanwhile, has had similar troubles with defeats to Buffalo, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Detroit – with their win over Miami their lone victory over a playoff team.
It will likely come down to the play of the quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes is an MVP talent, but has thrown interceptions in five of his last seven starts. He has topped 200+ passing yards in six straight games. 200 yards, two touchdowns and an interception seems a reasonable line for Mahomes at 5/2.
Opposing him is NFL passing leader Tua Tagovailoa who has thrown for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns on the season. Tua has thrown for over 250 passing yards just once in the last five weeks, with a single multi-touchdown performance. Against a stout KC defense, a 200-yard passing day, coupled with Under 1.5 passing touchdowns is priced at 31/20.
We should discuss WR Hill who has topped 75 receiving yards in 10 of his past 12 starts, topped six receptions in 10 of 12 and has 13 touchdowns on the season. He had an eight reception, 68-yard day against KC in November, but a 75+ yard, six catch performance with a touchdown is in the ballpark.
Parlay: Kansas City to win by 6.5 points, Patrick Mahomes to throw for 200 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 200 yards and under 1.5 touchdowns and Tyreek Hill to record 75+ receiving yards – 16/1
#7 Pittsburgh (10-7) @ #2 Buffalo (11-6)
At the mid-point of the season, the Buffalo Bills looked down and out with a 6-6 record, but five straight wins have somehow secured the AFC East outfit a divisional title and the #2 seed. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has trudged along to once again reach the playoffs, without really showcasing elite ability.
Buffalo is a –10.0-favourite in what the bookies expect to be the biggest mismatch of the weekend, and it's hard to argue with a quarterback match-up of perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen against Steelers' backup Mason Rudolph.
Allen has been in stunning form over the five-game winning streak for Buffalo registering five passing touchdowns, six rushing touchdowns and a trio of 200+ yard passing performances. A stats line of 200+ passing yards, a passing touchdown, a rushing touchdown and an interception – he has thrown at least one in 12 of his last 13 outings – pays at 9/2.
On the opposite side of the ball, it is wide receiver George Pickens who has stood out, despite not recording a reception against Baltimore last weekend. Pickens is a boom or bust selection – he has eight performances over 75+ receiving yards this season, in addition to nine sub-50-yard outings. Given Buffalo should front run in this matchup, Pickens will likely see lots of opportunities.
Parlay: Buffalo Bills by 10.5 points, Josh Allen to pass for 200+ yards, a touchdown and an interception in addition to a rushing touchdown, and George Pickens to top 75 receiving yards – 45/1
Money Line Treble: Buffalo, Kansas City, Cleveland – 1.94/1
Touchdown Treble: Nico Collins, Raheem Mostart, Josh Allen – 9.42/1
