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The Kansas City Chiefs will aim to become the first repeat 'world champions' since the 2004-05 New England Patriots when they take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday, February 11 at Allegient Stadium in Las Vegas.
The Chiefs have reached the NFL's championship game in four of the last five years, winning twice and losing once. The Niners, meanwhile, last reached the Super Bowl in February 2020 – losing 31-20 to Kansas City at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. San Fran's last Vince Lombardi Trophy win came in 1994 – but they do boast five world titles in total.
The 49ers are a –2.0-point favourites to claim a sixth NFL crown. They went 14-5 during the season, earning the #1 seed before defeating both the Green Bay Packers (24-21) and Detroit Lions (34-31) in the playoffs.
Kansas City, meanwhile, went 14-6 through the season, and looked extremely convincing, at least on defense, during the postseason with wins over the Miami Dolphins (26-7), Buffalo Bills (27-24) and Baltimore Ravens (17-10).
Points wise, the Niners have scored over 23.5 points (20/27) in 14 of 19 games this season, while KC has allowed under that mark (21/20) in 17 of 20 outings. The Kansas City points line is also set at 23.5 - they've gone over in just eight of 20 meetings (20/23) and go against a strong Niners' defense that has allowed over that mark just four times in 19 matches.
There are a pair of easy backs on the anytime touchdown market. Niners' running back Christian McCaffrey has 18 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving touchdowns in 2023, including four TDs in two play-off games. He's reached the endzone in 15 of 18 outings this season and is 4/9 to score anytime and 13/8 to reach the endzone twice.
For the Chiefs, tight end Travis Kelce is quarterback Patrick Mahomes' go-to-guy in play-off football. Kelce boasts 156 catches, 1,810 yards and 19 touchdowns in 21 career playoff games – with 23 catches, 262 yards and three touchdowns this season alone. He is 4/5 to score a touchdown anytime.
Onto the quarterbacks, Mahomes is 10/11 to throw over 260.5 passing yards, 20/31 to throw over 1.5 touchdowns and 20/23 to throw an interception. The Chiefs' QB has hit the over on yards nine times this season, over on touchdowns 10 times and over on interceptions on 11 occasions.
His adversary, Brock Purdy, has a passing yardage line of over 246.5 (10/11), over 1.5 passing touchdowns (10/13) and over 0.5 interceptions (5/6). He has hit those marks in 11, nine and seven games respectively.
Both running backs in the contest – McCaffery (49ers) and Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) - could provide solid betting options. McCaffrey is 20/23 to produce over 128.5 rushing and receiving yards – a feat he has achieved 10 times in 2023.
Pacheco, meanwhile, is more of traditional running back who gains his yards on the ground. He's 10/11 to produce over 67.5 rushing yards – a mark he has achieved in six of his last eight outings including all three playoff games. He also has touchdowns in six of his last seven performances.
The passing game threats for San Francisco are exceptional – wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk ,coupled with tight end George Kittle, are all high calibre talents. However, due to having so many options, it can be difficult to pinpoint the value on a week-to-week basis.
On the opposite sideline, wide receiver Rashee Rice is the most likely candidate to breakout other than Kelce. Rice has six or more receptions (10/21) in six of his last eight games.
On the defensive side of the ball, there are a few options to back in the props markets. The Niners are 6/4 to record more than 2.5 sacks – KC has allowed three or more sacks on just four occasions in 2023. KC has a similar line of over 2.5 sacks at 11/10 - the under (5/7) may be the play, however, as San Fran is also strong against the pass rush.
Parlay – Both teams to score under 27.5 points, Isiah Pacheco and Christian McCaffrey to score anytime touchdowns, Rashee Rice to record five receptions, Christian McCaffrey to produce 100+ combined rushing and receiving yards – 11/1
