3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a good track.
Race 1 - 2:20PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
1. Dimaggio is tracking to put in a peak performance shortly as he was quite strong through the line in a Midway second-up at Rosehill. Specked in betting there and ran up to it. Imagine he pushes forward in the small field and should be in the finish.
Dangers: 5. Winning Point was strong at the finish winning the Bega Cup over the mile. Still lightly raced so there's upside to her and from a soft draw in a smaller field she has to be considered. 7. Mistress won well at Wyong three starts back but last couple have been below par. Thought she had her chance at Canterbury last time but if she strikes her best she's a good chance. 2. Sweysive has been a $15 chance in his two runs back and held his ground fairly in both. Unbeaten at this track which is a plus and his last win was over this distance back in August. Stays under notice.
How to play it: Dimaggio WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 2:55PM PRAGUE YEARLINGS SELLING NOW PLATE (1100 METRES)
6. Chateau Miraval is another Waterhouse/Bott youngster and she's trialled strongly in the lead up to her debut with two Warwick Farm trial wins in January. She'll be right on the pace and likely the one to run down.
Dangers: 7. Diamond Firetail is a well bred Godolphin filly and there was a lot to like about her latest trial at Warwick Farm where she brushed to the line nicely. Keep her safe. 9. Elegant Artist made a promising debut with a close second to Rag Queen at Canterbury and that form has held up well through the Inglis Millennium. Draws well and if she runs up to that she's a big chance. 1. Deputize was solid in betting but didn't show a lot of pace before working home to a midfield finish behind Switzerland at Randwick. Runner-up has won since so it looks a strong race. Can improve.
How to play it: Chateau Miraval WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 3:30PM RANVET HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
4. Treize looks well placed now she's had a run around this trip since a setback earlier in this prep. Led and was run down in a Midway at Rosehill last time but did fight on well and could get some control of this race. Promising and chance to go one better.
Dangers: 6. Waikato Girl went for a break after a strong maiden win at Rosehill back in November. Fitter for two trials and drawn quite well in the small field. Class rise for her but she's a big threat. 3. Byron Belle has some ability but has been a bit hit and miss to date. She does react well fresh and her latest trial was a bit promising. Keep safe. 2. Centrestone wasn't beaten far when placed over 1550m here two weeks ago though had her chance at the same time. Perhaps coming back a touch in trip is in her favour and is worth another look.
How to play it: Treize WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 4:05PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Xidaki is hard to go past though he hasn't quite been able to put one away just yet. Placed in all four starts and did show a heap of fight when challenged here two weeks ago, going down narrowly. Good set up here from a perfect draw and this is his chance.
Dangers: 9. Overview was a huge drifter in betting when resuming at Canterbury, more than doubling her price, but she ran a game race on speed to hold down second. Fitter for that and she's likely an improver. Keep in mind. 4. Autumnation was widely expected to win as a $1.40 favourite at Canterbury in the same race as Overview but didn't fire at all after appearing to have her chance. Barrier may see a negative ride, which could be a plus or a minus. Have to give another chance. 3. Superstitious has been handy in two runs back for placings at Canterbury and if he has any luck from the draw can be right in the finish again.
How to play it: Xidaki WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 4:40PM GHAIYYATH FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
8. Fleet Commander has been a beaten favourite at his past two starts but does get the blinkers on here so have to stay on his side. Wary he's had a few chances but perhaps this distance range is his sweet spot and he can run well.
Dangers: 3. Naval Seal loomed up but didn't go on with it when runner-up to Roma Avenue over this course two weeks ago. He's been a little disappointing but this prep has put in a couple of nice runs so he's not without a chance. 5. Commander Bell stays under notice after beating Fleet Commander at Canterbury almost a month ago. Made a midrace move there and kept going. Won two of his last three so worth including. 7. Loving Cilla ran on well off a two month break at Rosehill then small drifter and boxed on okay for a placing at Newcastle. Needs a dry track and she's in the conversation if she gets one.
How to play it: Fleet Commander WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 5:15PM VINERY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
7. Balkans looked good winning his first two starts last prep then thrown into stakes racing and not quite up to it though wasn't beaten far in two attempts in the spring. Gelded and has trialled nicely, he should take plenty of stopping first-up.
Dangers: 8. Tellez enjoyed a nice run and converted it with an easy maiden win at Warwick Farm on Australia Day. Back in trip again but drawn to get that same sort of run behind what could be a generous tempo so a repeat could be on the cards. 9. Confess Our Dreams won twice at the Newcastle 900m back in the spring in a promising start to her career. She's also trialled well, that draw could be problematic but have to include her in the chances. 4. Secret Revolution raced consistently last time in and returned with a popular Canberra win. Had plenty of support last time at Warwick Farm and disappointed behind Shezanalister. Inclined to forgive that a little and no surprise if he bounces back to form.
How to play it: Balkans WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 5:50PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
13. Smart Legend was confidently supported first-up two weeks ago but couldn't go with the winner when the sprint went on. Fitter for that given he was off one trial and getting to 1400m is a plus for him, similar sort of race and he's entitled to another chance with a favourable scenario.
Dangers: 10. Kangaroo Court shapes as a big improver on his first-up effort at Warwick Farm where he was in the market but just battled to a midfield finish. Trialled again since and with the wide gate he'll likely look to cross onto the speed. Keep safe. 3. Fistsoffury was stakes placed behind Riff Rocket before a spell in Melbourne and he trialled okay behind a handy one at Rosehill just over a week ago. Has a handy record and any support would be significant. 7. Sir Artie showed a nice dash to score a very easy win at Gosford a couple of weeks ago and deserves a shot at this. Each-way claims. Also keep in mind 9. Cut On A Dame first-up as a gelding and 12. Growl who has trialled well for the new stable.
How to play it: Smart Legend WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
