3 minute read
The big guns avoid each other this weekend and will start at short quotes to win their respective matches. Similarly, those in the relegation fight don’t meet so there are no ‘six-pointers’.
The so-called 'big six' all won last weekend; it confirmed that the title is a three-horse race. Villa's loss to Man U thrust Spurs back into the top four and gave the Red Devils new hope of Champions League qualification.
At the other end, Sheffield Utd's win over Luton makes little difference to their prospects of survival but was a big hiccup in Luton's progress. Fortunately for them, the two sides above and the two below all lost as well to maintain the status quo.
BRENTFORD v LIVERPOOL: Saturday 17 February 11.30pm
POSITIONS: Brentford 25pts, 14th. Liverpool 54pts, 1st.
BRENTFORD FORM: Broke a run of poor away form with a surprise win at Wolves last weekend. At home, the Bees have lost four of their past six, with the only wins coming against strugglers Forest and Luton. The return of Toney has certainly made a difference, and Maupay is proving to be an able partner up front.
LIVERPOOL FORM: Not the most convincing display at home against Burnley last time around, with a Nunez goal in the 79th minute wrapping up the win. Burnley opened the Reds up a few times, that coming after a mistake-riddled performance at Arsenal the game prior. With a sizable injury list at present, there is a degree of shakiness for the league leaders.
HISTORY: Since Brentford's ascension to the top-flight, Liverpool has won three of the five meetings (including a 3-0 whitewash at Anfield in November), but it is worth noting the two clashes at the Gtech have been a 3-3 draw and a 3-1 win to the home side.
Prediction: Draw ($4.33 with bet365*)
BURNLEY v ARSENAL: Sunday 18 February 2.00am
POSITIONS: Burnley 13pts, 19th. Arsenal 52pts, 3rd.
BURNLEY FORM: Not winning often enough to dig themselves out of the relegation battle, but recent efforts have been encouraging. At 2-1 down they had a golden chance to draw level well into the second half at Anfield last Saturday. They look dangerous going forward but with only two clean sheets for the campaign, Kompany needs to plug the gaps at the back if his side are to turn things around.
ARSENAL FORM: Since a mid-winter break in Dubai, the Gunners have been relentless. Liverpool's uncharacteristic sloppiness did help when they scored a vital 3-1 against the leaders at home. They then went to the London Stadium and registered their biggest away win in the Premier League era against a woeful West Ham. The goals are being shared around in the absence of a genuine #9 – usually title winners have a 25-goal man up front (Haaland/Salah) so it remains to be seen if this run can continue into the pointy end of the season.
HISTORY: The sides have played 21 times since 2008 and Burnley has won just twice, with four games drawn. Arsenal won the reverse clash 3-1 at the Emirates on 11 November.
Prediction: Arsenal win ($1.30 with bet365*)
FULHAM v ASTON VILLA: Sunday 18 February 2.00am
POSITIONS: Fulham 29pts, 12th. Aston Villa 46pts, 5th.
FULHAM FORM: The Cottagers have taken advantage of a kind sequence of fixtures and picked up five points from the last three games to end a poor run either side of Xmas. Aside from a shock loss to Burnley, the home form is very good with five wins and a draw from the last seven matches, including a comfortable win over Bournemouth last weekend.
ASTON VILLA FORM: Too inconsistent to keep pace with the big three, with two wins, two draws, and three losses from their last seven. They may have lost to Man U at home last weekend, but the Villains dominated parts of the game and deserved at least a point. The injury list isn't looking too bad now which is important with European commitments on the horizon.
HISTORY: Fulham once had the wood on Villa but in the five clashes since season 20/21, Villa has won four including a 3-1 success in Round 12 when they were in control after taking the lead in the 27th minute.
Prediction: Aston Villa win ($2.20 with bet365*)
NEWCASTLE v BOURNEMOUTH: Sunday 18 February 2.00am
POSITIONS: Newcastle 36pts, 7th. Bournemouth 27pts, 13th.
NEWCASTLE FORM: The entertainers of the league – their 24 games have yielded 90 goals at an average of 3.75 per match. It continued at the City Ground last weekend when they twice repelled Forest comebacks to earn a 3-2 win. St James' Park has not been the impregnable fort of late. The Magpies have picked up just one point from their last three home games and conceded 10 goals in the process.
BOURNEMOUTH FORM: Since the big win over Fulham on Boxing Day it has been a slippery slope for the Cherries, drawing twice and losing three times. The goals have been hard to come by – after scoring at least two in seven consecutive matches they now found the net just four times in that recent run of five games. The last three fixtures haven't been tough, so the demise is a disappointment to fans who must have harboured thoughts of a top-ten finish at Xmas.
HISTORY: Bournemouth won the reverse clash 2-0 when they were flying and Newcastle was crippled with injuries. Before that, it was a match-up dominated by the Tynesiders who had won four and drawn four of the previous eight clashes.
Prediction: Newcastle win ($1.83 with bet365*)
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v WEST HAM: Sunday 18 February 2.00am
POSITIONS: Nottingham Forest 21pts, 16th. West Ham 36pts, 8th.
FOREST FORM: Nuno's honeymoon is well and truly over. His side has picked up just one point this calendar year, although the three defeats in that time have been by a single goal. Forest showed resilience against Newcastle last weekend, coming from behind twice in a cracking game only to concede a third midway through the second half which was the difference.
WEST HAM FORM: Diabolical in a word. The 6-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal, their first loss of such magnitude at home in over 60 years, was coming. Draws against Sheffield Utd and Bournemouth, sides a top-six aspirant should be going after and not struggling to hold, have been followed by nine unanswered goals. Fans are rightly fed up with Moyes – he has plenty of attacking talent at his disposal and it is wasted. One goal in open play in 2024 says it all. With a kind run of fixtures coming up, positive results are a must, or the board will be looking for a new man at the helm in 24/25.
HISTORY: Only three recent clashes to draw upon. Forest won the only meeting at the City Ground since their reappearance in the top-flight, with the Hammers getting up at home in the other two.
Prediction: Draw ($3.50 with bet365*)
TOTTENHAM v WOLVES: Sunday 18 February 2.00am
POSITIONS: Tottenham 47pts, 4th. Wolves 32pts, 11th.
TOTTENHAM FORM: Left it to the last minute of stoppage time to grab all three points against Brighton last time out in a highly entertaining game between two attractive sides. Incredibly, Spurs have scored in every match this season, but on the flip side has just one clean sheet in their last 15 – evidence of 'Ange-ball'. Since a poor run at home late last year, they are on a run of five successive home victories.
WOLVES FORM: A second straight loss at home last weekend, beaten 2-0 by Brentford. It was the first time this campaign that O'Neil's side has failed to find the net at Molineux. It has been a bit of feast or famine for Wolves their last eight – three times they have not scored but in the other five games they have racked up 16 goals. Overall, it has been a pleasing campaign and led by Cunha and Neto they are a great team to watch. Bad news for Wolves is that Cunha is out for an extended period with a hammy.
HISTORY: It has been a decent fixture for Wolves recently, winning three of the last four in the league including a couple in stoppage time to get up 2-1 earlier this season.
Prediction: Tottenham win ($1.57 with bet365*)
MANCHESTER CITY v CHELSEA: Sunday 18 February 4.30am
POSITIONS: Manchester City 52pts, 2nd. Chelsea 34pts, 10th.
MAN CITY FORM: Made it six wins on the bounce when they took a while to break down Everton but eventually got home 2-0. It was Haaland again, and the introduction of De Bruyne 12 minutes into the second half with the game evenly poised must have sent shivers down Sean Dyche's spine. City remain undefeated at home this season. With a game in hand they sit two behind Liverpool so their title destiny, although still 15 games out from the end of the campaign, is in their hands.
CHELSEA FORM: Yo-yoing as it has all season. Eight goals were conceded in two games before a second half revival at Selhurst Park on Monday evening against a depleted Palace. The Blues had 80% possession in the first half and managed just one feeble attempt at goal. The passing was pretty but the incision non-existent until they clicked after the break. Their last positive result against a top-eight side was their memorable 4-4 in this reverse fixture.
HISTORY: Before the aforementioned eight-goal thriller at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea had lost every meeting with City since the Champions League final in May 2021, failing to score in any of those six games.
Prediction: Manchester City win ($1.33 with bet365*)
SHEFFIELD UTD v BRIGHTON: Monday 19 February 1.00am
POSITIONS: Sheffield Utd 13pts, 20th. Brighton 35pts, 9th.
SHEFFIELD UTD FORM: The Blades registered their third win of the campaign, the first since 9 December, when they upset relegation rivals Luton at Kenilworth Road last weekend. It was the second time in three games that United had scored twice in the first half, only this time their often feeble defence held the Hatters out. The improvement is there since Wilder's arrival – eight points earned in ten games since he took over after just five were collected in the first 14.
BRIGHTON FORM: Mitoma's return last weekend at Tottenham sparked a bright performance and a point looked in the bag until Johnson's late, late goal on the break sunk the Seagulls. Only four wins now since round six and a consequential slide to ninth on the table, a long way off back-to-back European qualification. On their travels De Zerbi's side have no wins from the last six games, including a thumping at Luton.
HISTORY: Surprisingly, a recent 5-2 by Brighton over Sheffield Utd in the FA Cup ended a dry spell for them. In the five Premier League meetings between the pair, the record reads SU two wins, three drawn.
Prediction: Brighton win ($1.61 with bet365*)
LUTON v MANCHESTER UTD: Monday 19 February 3.30am
POSITIONS: Luton 20pts, 17th. Manchester Utd 41pts, 6th.
LUTON FORM: Luton are playing a lot of games at home of late, this will make it eight of their last 12. The 3-1 loss to Sheffield Utd last weekend was easily their worst result at Kenilworth Road since earning promotion. Highlights at the quirky stadium have been wins over Newcastle and Brighton, a draw with Liverpool, and narrow defeats against Man City, Arsenal, and Tottenham.
MANCHESTER UNITED FORM: Another three points for Man U last weekend, and a decent three at that against Villa away. To be fair, McTominay's late winner snatched a point away from Villa that they deserved. Onana had one of his best games between the sticks, Hojlund has found his range, and Rashford seems to be over his problems. They are a long way off threatening the big three, bit fourth spot is not an impossible dream if the momentum continues. However, I have my doubts.
HISTORY: Understandably very few games between these sides. Man U won earlier in the season 1-0 at Old Trafford. The last win by Luton over the Red Devils came in the old Division One in March 1987.
Prediction: Manchester Utd win ($1.80 with bet365*)
EVERTON v CRYSTAL PALACE: Tuesday 20 February 7.00am
POSITIONS: Everton 19pts, 18th. Palace 24pts, 15th.
EVERTON FORM: Just three points from their last seven games looks bleak but consider the opponents in that time … Spurs (twice), Man City (twice), Aston Villa, Wolves, Fulham. After this meeting they have four straight against top-half opponents, so in the relegation battle a result here is critical. The Toffees' last two home games have resulted in draws against Villa and Tottenham. Their effort last weekend to hold Man City out until the 71st minute was full of merit.
PALACE FORM: As highlighted in last week's preview, the presence of Eze and Olise is vital to Palace's success. The duo was missing at home to Chelsea on Monday evening and despite a stonewall first half that saw them go to the sheds ahead, three unanswered second half goals sunk them to a fourth loss in six. The Eagles have not won away since beating Burnley at Turf Moor 2-0 on 4 November. Olise is out until April, Eze in doubt for this clash.
HISTORY: Palace has not won in their last nine visits to Goodison. Thet sides have met three times since 11 November, with Everton winning at Selhurst in the league, and at home in an FA Cup replay following a controversial 0-0 first time around.
Prediction: Everton win ($1.70 with bet365*)
SUGGESTED WAGERS:
All-up Newcastle to win, Tottenham to win, Manchester City to win, Everton to win at $6.50* with bet365.
*Odds correct at 2.40pm 15 February 2024.
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