3 minute read
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Sunday's $150,000 Newhaven Park Central Districts Country Championships (1400m) at Mudgee.
1. Possibly So (Andrew Ryan, Bathurst): It hasn't been the best of build ups for last year's runner-up in his attempt to go one better. He won a Highway at Randwick back in early January in nice style and was set to run on his home track in the Preview only to be scratched at the barriers. Quickly dashed back to the trials and arrives here fresh. Sort of. If he hits the line like he did a year ago he's capable of winning but will need things go his way.
2. Lockdown Gamble (David Smith, Mudgee): Ran third in this race in 2022 and finished midfield in the Final after getting a call up when the horses who beat him couldn't take their place. Didn't fire at all last preparation and comes here back in form with a first-up win and an excellent effort at Newcastle second-up. Capable of using the barrier to be in the first half and if he gets the breaks he's in the type of form that says he can be hard to beat.
3. Laffing Waters (Andrew Ryan, Bathurst): Led and knocked up when resuming in the Cowra Japan Cup a month ago and has trialled twice since then. Expect she will roll forward from the wide gate and look to lead, or be right there, but she's yet to try 1400m and would need to have come on considerably fitness wise. May be outclassed.
4. Aimpoint (Mack Griffith, Mudgee): Won three from four in his first prep for the stable but this time around has been to Sydney for Highways at each run back. Completely ignore the latest one where he drew wide and went back and didn't fire at all. His previous two efforts were pretty sound and he lands an ideal gate he can take some advantage of. Commands plenty of respect.
5. Scopics (Dean Mirfin, Bathurst): Ran fourth in this race last year at just his fourth race start and has continued to improve in the past 12 months. That was on show first-up when he scored a strong win at Kembla Grange. Forgive his Highway run where he drew wide and settled last and didn't make any impact. Much better suited here and looks one of the major chances.
6. British Statesman (Gayna Williams, Bathurst): Comes through the same Highway at Randwick a few of his rivals contested and he wasn't a factor after settling handy and dropping off. Fitter for that and certainly drawn a lot better. Last win was at Queanbeyan back in September leading all the way over 1200m. Looks a place chance.
7. East Harlem (Dean Mirfin, Bathurst): Possesses an honest record and has struck form at the right time with a win at Parkes and a second in the Preview on his home track. Was no match for the winner there and is slightly worse off at the weights. Added to that he faces a wide gate and a bit of work to do to find a spot. Wouldn't rule him out completely but will need some favours.
8. Our Orator (Roy McCabe, Bathurst): Seems to have gone missing a bit of late. Scored a nice win at Wellington in October and ran a handy race in a Highway after that on two occasions. But his two runs back from a short break haven't been up to scratch and he was quite disappointing in the Preview. Needs to find a few lengths.
9. Fact Finder (Cheryl Crockett, Mudgee): Produced a big finish from the back, aided by a ground saving ride, to break through at Parkes over a mile a month ago. Form prior to that had been mixed so is very much a case of take on trust. Perhaps he'd appreciate a mile once again too.
10. Fletchlo (Gayna Williams, Bathurst): Least experienced horse in the race with just five starts to his name for two wins. Strong winner at his home track in November and his two runs since then have had merit without suggesting he's a Country Championships winner. Beaten favourite last time though gets weight relief here. Place best.
11. Life's A Party (Mark Jones, Mudgee): She's hit her top at the right time bringing a couple of nice Highway runs, including a second at Randwick at the end of December, into an easy win in the Preview at Bathurst two weeks ago. Yet to tick the 1400m box but she does handle all ground and looks well suited from a draw that gives her options. Would be a surprise if she's not very competitive.
12. Musical Affair (Mack Griffith, Mudgee): Consistent mare whose only failure of late came in a Highway at Rosehill a month ago. Bounced back with a game enough second after leading at Bathurst over this trip. She is probably a rung below this class but has the racing style that sees her up on the speed and giving a sight.
13. Ida's Rules (Dean Mirfin, Bathurst): Ninth run of the campaign and posted her second win in that time getting through a heavy track the best a couple of weeks ago in a Benchmark 58. Needs to step up from that and her best chances may well come if the track is a testing one.
14. Kelilah (Melissa Harrison, Orange): Just the one win from seven starts and that was on debut. Nothing wrong with two runs back in lesser company that would suggest a win is close in that grade but she'll find this a bit tougher and even more so negotiating a tricky gate. Prefer her in something easier.
15E. Whataboutscotty (Karen McCarroll, Wellington): Started $10 in the Preview and found himself almost 13 lengths from the winner there after racing handy. Has had stop-start campaigns since running second last as a $61 chance in this race last year. This edition is no easier.
16E. Tokyo Run (Dean Mirfin, Bathurst): Big chance in a maiden earlier in the day as he faces a test from a wide gate up in class. Granted he did contest a Group 1 in the Victoria Derby last spring. Needed one more stride to win first-up at 1100m on his home track so he'll relish the 1400m now. Not suited here at this stage. Maybe next year.
17E. Bon Zipper (Michael Lynch, Cowra): Racing quite well in Benchmark 58 grade or thereabouts of late but finds himself in a different league here. Drifter in betting last time and held his ground okay at Bathurst but hard to make a case for him.
18E. A Pound Of Salt (Peter W Stanley, Wellington): One win from nine starts and safely held as an $18 chance at Bathurst in a Class 1 last time out. Probably wants a mile and something a bit easier than this so follow him when he turns up under those circumstances.
19E. Eilrahc (Alison Smith, Orange): Considering he was a $41 chance he wasn't entirely disgraced in the Preview behind Life's A Party when beaten seven lengths. But faces the outside gate if he gets a run and a lot more depth so he's better off in his own grade.
SPEED MAP: Potential for a truly run race with Musical Affair and Laffing Waters noted front-runners, and East Harlem drawn wider if he gets a run. Aimpoint, Scopics and British Statesman can land in handy spots and Lockdown Gamble has the speed if needed to slot in somewhere near or just off the speed. Kelilah has a decision to make from a tricky draw.
SELECTIONS:
2 LOCKDOWN GAMBLE
11 Life's A Party
4 Aimpoint
5 Scopics
