3 minute read
Michael van Gerwen maintained his impressive start to the Premier League Darts season with a third successive night victory in Newcastle last Thursday. He heads to Exeter's Westpoint Arena eight points ahead of Michael Smith and Luke Littler as the elite eight do battle once again on Thursday. February 29.
'MVG' is currently on a nine-match win-streak in the competition – with wins over all seven Premier League rivals during that run. Last week he defeated Gerwyn Price 6-4, Littler 6-5 and Nathan Aspinall 6-4 on his way to five points in the standings.
'Mighty Mike's' journey to a fourth successive tournament victory will start with a battle against world champion Luke Humphries. The pair have met just once on the PL circuit this season – a 6-5 win for 'MVG' despite being out-averaged 101.37-93.85 by 'Cool Hand Luke'.
Humphries is one of just two players with a three-dart average of 100+ since the start of the year and boasts a similar checkout percentage average to his opponent. The difference between the players – at least in the Premier League – is that 'Mighty Mike' has excelled against the throw, winning 41.18% of legs.
It's difficult to back the upset on current form, but a Van Gerwen victory coupled with Humphries hitting the most 180s at 3/1 is a solid option.
The winner of that meeting with face-off against either Nathan Aspinall or Peter Wright. Both players headed into Night Four with zero points but 'The Asp' was able to secure wins over Michael Smith and Rob Cross before losing out to 'MVG' in the final.
Wright, meanwhile, gave Littler quite a match in last week's quarter-final, losing 6-5 while averaging 103.37. The pair are bottom dwellers in terms of tournament average, checkout percentage and with-throw average.
The upset once again is palatable at 5/4 - Wright out-averaged Aspinall by over 15-points at the quarter-final stage last week – but the better option may be the Over 9.5 legs total in the match-up at 10/11.
Heading into the bottom half of the draw it's Gerwyn Price against Rob Cross and Luke Littler versus Michael Smith.
Price should garner favouritism in his match having beaten Cross 6-2 on Night One, with 'Voltage' really struggling to win against the throw – he has won just 17.65% of legs when the opponent has thrown first.
With Price winning one-third of legs against the throw, a 6-4 or 6-5 victory is the ballpark, so again the Over 9.5 leg option could be the play again at 10/11.
Meanwhile, the battle between Luke Littler and Michael Smith should be a high-scoring contest. The pair met on Night One with Smith overcoming the 17-year-old prodigy 6-5 despite 'The Nuke' averaging 105.31 in the contest.
Michael Smith is second in the Premier League against the throw, second in checkout percentage and third in 180s hit – he does, however, have quarter-final exits on his resume the past two nights. We back Smith on the handicap - +1.5 - excellent value at Evens.
Best Bets
Michael Van Gerwen to beat Luke Humphries
Humphries to hit most 180s (3/1)
Michael Smith to cover the +1.5 leg handicap (ie win or lose 6-5)
