3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Grafton meeting. Selections based on a soft to good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 1:10PM PRESTIGE WEDDING & EVENT HIRE MAIDEN PLATE (1700 METRES)
Keen on 4. The Riddler, who profiles well for this event, and he was brave in defeat last start at this track when nothing went right. The gelding was slow to begin, overraced and then made an early move from the rear of the field to the lead at the 1000m mark. Further, he always faced the breeze and never shirked his task to the line, holding on for second place. The Daniel Wheeler-trained galloper has a much more positive race setup here with barrier one, and the rise to 1700m is ideal. In addition, he finds a winnable race and can rate to win.
Dangers: 6. Saxon Brave comes through the same race as The Riddler and brings the SP edge. The gelding had all favours battling on for third, but all key indicators suggest he can peak third-up out to a more suitable trip. 7. Cunning Kitty brings solid provincial formlines and will be smothered away from the soft draw. Add 8. Pennies Destiny, who is racing well at her home track and the claim suits.
How to play it: The Riddler WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 1:45PM VALLEY PROTECTIVE SERVICES BM 58 HCP (2200 METRES)
1. Ausbred Cooee was well backed late in the trade last start at this track/distance 30 days ago, and he was honest in defeat, running second. The six-year-old had the race shape against but made up significant ground and beat the rest easily. He profiles well and has multiple winning figures for this event, with the claim suiting. Moreover, the break between runs is of little concern as he has produced some of his peak figures off freshen-ups.
Dangers: 2. More For Us is a consistent type but had excuses last start at Tamworth and is ready to bounce back into the winner's stall. 5. Subversive is in career-best form and rock-hard fit. Add 10. Zoria's Hero who was checked/blocked at a key stage last start at Newcastle.
How to play it: Ausbred Cooee WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 2:20PM MCLENNAN EARTHMOVING COUNTRY MAIDEN (1175 METRES)
Keen on 13. Top Act, whose debut run at this track was full of merit in a high-rating race. The filly wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape but made up significant ground by running fast closing splits and hit the line hard to finish second. She has a strong profile for this event, with key indicators suggesting she can only step off that performance and will benefit from race experience. Expect her to settle closer from the inside draw, giving her a tactical map advantage relative to some of her key rivals, making her hard to beat.
Dangers: Multiple runenrs come through the same race inclduing 4. Kid Billy, 10. Fools Play and 6. Golden Copper. Kid Billy brings the SP edge, and he can bounce back with a tongue-tie going on for the first time. Fools Play is a lightly raced improver who will appreciate the distance rise, and Golden Copper is an honest on-pace type.
How to play it: Top Act WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 2:55PM CLARENCE VALLEY WHOLESALERS COUNTRY C2 HCP (1000 METRES)
Leaning towards 1. Shaquila , who resumes off a 149-day break and has had the two trials leading into this assignment. The gelding has improved between heats and went through the line full of energy, not extended in a recent heat at Beaudesert. He can sprint fresh, has strong formlines/figures for this event, and a senior rider goes on for raceday.
Dangers: Respect 2. Sir Boo's first-up SP in a much stronger grade and he had excuses. The four-year-old can bounce back here and have the last shot. 5. Cool Shalaa is a lightly raced improver coming off a career-peak win at Tuncurry. 6. Snow Falcon will appreciate the drying track and market watch on 15. Noble Missile.
How to play it: Shaquila WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 3:35PM INSPIRATIONS PAINT MAIDEN HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Like 4. Sierra De Gredos, who represents value, and his first-up run on the Polytrack had hidden merit. The gelding wasn't suited over 1150m and got too far back throughout transit, but to his credit, he built momentum before hitting the line hard to record the second-fastest final 200m split of the meeting. He can improve sharply back onto a turf surface on a bigger track, and 1400m is an ideal second-up. He has a solid ratings/SP profile for this event and is over the odds. Good each-way.
Dangers: 3. Santatime deserves favouritism after a strong first-up run at Newcastle, where he was specked late in the trade, indicating he had come back improved. He raced well, clocked the fastest final 200m sectional of the meeting and held his action well late. Expect him to step, and he can settle closer from the soft gate. 14. Traviata is rock-hard fit coming through metropolitan Queensland maiden grade. 10. Shez Lethal had excuses last start at this track and will appreciate the genuine anticipated tempo where he produces his peak efforts.
How to play it: Sierra De Gredos E/W ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 4:10PM MORE ICE CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
10. Street Smarts has a tricky setup, but she is ready to peak third-up over more ground. The mare ran fast closing splits first-up and then had excuses last start at this track. Further, all her peak figures have come over this distance range, and she has a strong SP profile for this grade. Needs luck but represents value. Each-way.
Dangers: 1. Mister Jono has a dominant ratings profile and maps to have all favours. He is now in the hands of trainer Annabel Neasham and has had one trial leading up to this event. Key market watch. 3. Extra Smart can sprint fresh and has strong form lines for this event. 8. Intentional Lass and 2. Twilight Rock are both honest on-pace types who will roll forward.
How to play it: Street Smarts E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 4:50PM CLARENCE VALLEY OFFICE SUPPLIES CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1175 METRES)
Expecting 1. Zelgaria to improve sharply, and the market suggested he would come on from his first-up run at this track 19 days ago. The lightly raced galloper wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape, but he wanted to pick up and find the line with the gelding recording some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting. He will be fitter; the rise in trip suits and going onto a drying surface where he produces his peak figures is ideal.
Dangers: 9. Polarising resumed a winner at the Sunshine Coast and did it easily after SPing $1.30. He can make the step and maps well. 3. Camp Land is another last-start winner who can press forward from the wide draw. 10. Boambee Beach draws to have all the favours and 2. Cannon ran time to score last start at this track.
How to play it: Zelgaria WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 8 - 5:25PM BLUES BREWS & BBQ'S MARCH 17 BM 74 HCP (1175 METRES)
2. Oakfield Duke is racing much better than the formguide reads, and he can bounce back into the winner's stall here. The gelding is coming out time/sectional merit races this prep at the metropolitan level but has just had too much to do. He draws tricky again but drops sharply in grade, and his sectional profile suggests he can sprint over the top of his rivals at this level. He can also rate to win and races well off a freshen-up.
Dangers: Forget 3. Maximum Vortex's first-up run, where he was caught out on a limb, and he has since been back to the trials. He's unbeaten at this track and the claim suits. 5. Eagle Hawk Star had excuses last start but still ran on well and clocked some of the meeting's fastest closing splits. 14. Lion Class is a knockout chance, and add 13. Cabsav, who maps to have all favours from the soft draw.
How to play it: Oakfield Duke WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
