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Race 1 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
9. Cut On A Dime resumed as a gelding at the midweeks three weeks ago and was doing his best work through the line behind Sir Artie. Out to the mile looks a perfect progression second up for the Bryce Heys-trained galloper. The biggest appeal with this four-year-old compared to his rivals is the likelihood that the best is still to come from him. He showed the stable enough to warrant a crack at the Randwick Guineas last campaign. He was then tried later over 2400m in the Queensland Guineas too. Not sure where he fits in regarding his best distance but he does look well placed on Saturday in Midway company. Drawn wide but he'll get back regardless and be allowed to blend into the race at the right time.
Dangers: 3. Mahagoni's rating is starting to come down which makes another crack at a Midway appealing. He has only raced in one of them and he won it, beating his stablemate Najavo Peak. Don't think barrier 1 is ideal for him as he appears to like room to let down and he'd prefer a soft track. However, you have to respect the depth of his recent two runs in BM88 company. 16. Star Impact ran third in a three-way go in Midway company two weeks ago. The soft gate gives her the chance to turn the tables on 1. Dr Evil and 24. Elettrica. 6. Satness comes into this a last start winner at Kembla Grange. He'll ride the speed out of trouble.
How To Play It: Cut On A Dime WIN
Race 2 - 1:05PM YARRAMAN PARK REISLING STAKES (1200 METRES)
2. Erno's Cube brings the strongest form lines into this. What she has to overcome is the wide draw but Jason Collett, who has ridden her in three of her five starts, tends to ride her quietly anyways. Perhaps the gate doesn't change too much. She was four weeks between runs when third to Straight Charge and Espionage in the Silver Slipper Stakes. She was beaten a couple of lengths but there was just as big of a gap back to fourth. Prior to that Erno's Cube had run fourth to Storm Boy in the Magic Millions. Before that was a second to Straight Charge and a brilliant win in the Max Lees Classic. You get the point. Entitled to be shorter given what she has done to date.
Dangers: 8. Silmarillion ran as well as she could at Canterbury on debut. Snagged back from the wide draw in torrential rain she darted back towards the inside looking for clear running before making late ground behind Gatsby's, who is held in high regard. Respect the booking of James McDonald. 6. Extreme Diva is on the seven day back up after running on into third behind Manaal. She too brings Switzerland form and the draw is much kinder here. Have to risk 1. Too Darn Lizzie at the early price.
How To Play It: Erno's Cube WIN
Race 3 - 1:40PM RANDWICK CITY STAKES (2000 METRES)
Want to give 4. Diamil the chance to bounce back. He was flat second up in the Parramatta Cup when hard in the market. Perhaps having run so well first up saw him flatten off at his subsequent start. There was a theory that he was ridden too close. Either way, he is better than that. Looking back through his form, there is a pattern of him running well third up. There is enough in the early price to take the gamble that he can run to that trend. Looking at the make up of this field, it's largely genuine staying types. Diamil at least possesses a turn of foot. The other thing worth noting is that the six-year-old's last three wins have been at Randwick.
Dangers: 10. Canberra Legend stuck on bravely in the Parramatta Cup despite covering ground throughout. He was coming again on the line to be beaten half a length in fourth. The market has recognised the merit in that return though. He's well found. The red flag with that race as a form reference is that less than a length separated first to sixth. Not sure where else to turn, however. The market tends to tell the story with 7. Torrens but he too loves Randwick and gave Naval College a scare at Warwick Farm six weeks ago. 5. Serpentine will give a sight but 2000m is as short as he wants it.
How To Play It: Diamil WIN
Race 4 - 2:15PM TOKYO CITY KEIBA FIREBALL STAKES (1100 METRES)
2. Red Resistance was such a brute of a two-year-old and just as he was set up to get last year's Golden Slipper a shake, a temperature spike saw him scratched. He had form around all the right horses beating King's Gambit and Shinzo in the Canonbury before splitting Cylinder and Militarize in the Todman. He was tipped out with eyes on the spring as a three-year-old but was tipped out again after the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable weren't happy with how he'd come up. He's had tie back surgery since. Hence the 53 weeks between runs. It looks to be all systems go ahead of the autumn now on the back of two impressive trials. Finds Nash Rawiller and although he'll be hard pressed to cross speedy filly Facile to his immediate inside, the barrier ensures he won't be wide and working.
Dangers: 7. Facile found 1200m a stretch first up in the Light Fingers. It looks a strong crop of three-year-old fillies so although well beaten at the finish, she was far from disgraced. Like her back to 1100m, drawn to lead and three weeks between runs. We only got to see 1. Corniche once over the spring in the San Domenico Stakes where he failed to justify the confident backing. He was sent straight to the paddock thereafter. Has trialled well and could benefit from a fast run race, getting the drop on the speed. And there looks to be plenty of it on paper. 9. Confess Our Dreams quickly finds herself in Listed company but she showed plenty of determination to remain undefeated first up at the midweeks.
How To Play It: Red Resistance WIN
Race 5 - 2:50PM UNSW TODMAN STAKES (1200 METRES)
5. Espionage looks to have been too heavily penalised in early betting due to his wide gate. Given how quickly he mustered first up in the Silver Slipper Stakes, the son of Zoustar might be able to get himself outside of the likely leader Straight Charge. It's game on if that's the case. Don't expect Nash Rawiller to take a backward step early. Espionage will need to turn the tables on his stablemate second up but he raced keenly in the early stages after being restrained to find cover yet was chipping away into the margin late. His closing splits were the fastest across the entire meeting. That sees him well placed to improve off that performance out to 1200m. Gets the chance to stamp himself as a genuine Golden Slipper player.
Dangers: 3. Straight Charge is all guts and determination. Love how he kept finding under pressure to go down fighting in the Breeders' Plate on debut before proving too fast in his two subsequent starts. It'll be a rinse and repeat tactics-wise with Tim Clark riding again. Bounce out from barrier 1 and dare his rivals to run him down. 6. Switzerland was as impressive in the Pierro Plate as the quinella in the Silver Slipper but you get the impression that there is still much more to come. He was ridden as the best horse last start, settling outside of the leader. Job done. 4. Bodyguard adds further intrigue having been scratched from the Blue Diamond. 1. Shangri La Express wasn't beaten far by Switzerland and the market forecasted he'd likely need the run.
How To Play It: Espionage WIN
Race 6 - 3:25PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS CHALLENGE STAKES (1000 METRES)
6. Passive Aggressive won this race 12 months ago at a similar price and this year's edition isn't any harder. There's no Eduardo or Giga Kick and they are the two sprinters that filled the minors behind her. The gamble is that she is 44 weeks between runs, having failed to get in foal so her career as a broodmare was put back another season. Grahame Begg will have her ready. We've seen Passive Aggressive twice publicly since last campaign in a Cranbourne trial and then a jumpout. She looked as sharp as ever when matching motors with the likes of Bella Nipotina and Imperatriz in the trial before winning her 800m jumpout in good time for the morning. Looks the leader and is a proven 1000m horse.
Dangers: 3. Remarque was well held by Passive Aggressive in the Challenge Stakes last year but he was second up. The preparation is a little different this time back, tackling the race fresh and his first up stats speak for themselves (6:4-0-1). He too has a handy record over 1000m and should land on the back of the speed. The drums are beating that 4. Aft Cabin has returned in fantastic order. His trials suggest as much and he is being trained as a sprinter this campaign, as opposed to a miler when he was a three-year-old. 1. Private Eye has to be a risk staying at 1000m second up. This is the run he has to have to get him to the TJ Smith Stakes with a month between runs. Big watch on 2. Mazu fresh.
How To Play It: Passive Aggressive WIN
Race 7 - 4:00PM JAMES SQUIRE CANTERBURY STAKES (1300 METRES)
1. Think About It is the best horse in the race. That doesn't mean he automatically wins the race, far from it, but he's entitled to be a short-priced favourite given the CV he has compiled in 13 career starts. He has an Everest to his name and two Group Ones. The five-year-old has done everything required of him in his two trials, suggesting that he has returned at least as well as last campaign. The caveat is that this campaign he isn't being trained to peak second up over 1200m. There are Doncasters and Queen Elizabeths on the agenda. That, in theory, makes him more vulnerable first up. Particularly given that his dangers have all had a run or two under their belt. It's his determination which constantly gets him over the line, a quality that is hard to quantify.
Dangers: 6. Espiona swerves the G1 Newmarket to run here which could prove a tip in itself. Her first up run in the Lightning Stakes over an unsuitable 1000m in an unsuitably slowly run race was outstanding. She ran Imperatriz and Private Eye to less than a length. Her recent form says that she is now a genuine WFA performer. Was dominant second up last campaign over 1400m. 3. Coal Crusher produced the best first up run of his career this time back before flattening off a touch second up last Saturday. Perhaps understandably so if this has always been the target race. Third up, the blinkers go back on. Rides the speed with Malkovich. His best recent form has been fourth up but there's intent in this set up. 2. Pericles fits in well with his Mr Brightside form and maps perfectly.
How To Play It: Think About It WIN
Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600 METRES)
3. Celestial Legend put a gap on his rivals in the Hobartville Stakes, getting out to 1400m for the first time. He got to the right part of the track, granted, but it's hard to make a case for anything from that race to turn the tables given his late dominance. His last 200m split was over a length and a half faster than the next best. That screams that the son of Dundeel with relish a mile now, as does his pedigree. All indications are that Les Bridge has his colt exactly where he wants him third up heading towards his autumn target. The barrier isn't ideal but Kerrin McEvoy overcame a similar gate last start. A perfect world would see him find cover in three-wide running line behind Encap. Celestial Legend exploded to record a new peak last start and he sets up to improve again off that Saturday.
Dangers: The case for 1. Militarize is obvious and he is entitled to be favourite. His form is more exposed than Celestial Legend but splitting Fangirl and Think It Over at WFA first up reads as an exceptionally strong form reference for this. It's been the plan all along to tackle the Guineas second up. He draws perfectly. 4. Encap was trapped three deep in the Hobartville and stuck on bravely to run second to Celestial Legend. Looks to be building perfectly towards Saturday himself. 2. Tom Kitten has looked every but the miler this time back. We're unlikely to see the best of him until he gets back out to 2000m. 9. Ceolwulf also looks more of a Rosehill Guineas style of horse but he's a talent.
How To Play It: Celestial Legend WIN
Race 9 - 5:15PM MOSTYNCOPPER ASPIRATION QUALITY (1600 METRES)
4. Lekvarte finds herself in career best form. The five-year-old grey won three on the bounce as she worked her way through the grades, culminating in a Belle Of The Turf win at Gosford. She reappeared six weeks later in the G2 Millie Fox Stakes and despite running fifth, she rattled home in the fifth quickest last 600m split across the meeting. There wasn't enough pressure up front for her to get any closer to those that rode the speed. The 1300m was always going to be a touch too sharp too. Throw into the mix that the race was run by Zougotcha beating the flying Lady Laguna. That race had a lot more depth than the one Lekvarte lines up in on Saturday. Out to the mile is perfect as is the prospect of a drier track. Takes holding out.
Dangers: 1. Thalassophile won this race, narrowly, last year. She carries an extra 5kg twelve months on despite not having won since. Did enough first up against the boys over 1400m. Back to mares company, out to the mile and finds James McDonald. 3. Osmose should hold a spot from the draw, unlike first up last campaign. Still get the impression there's more to come from this import. Three trials will have her ready. 12. Howgoodareyou could be the sharp improver out to the mile. Wasn't suited staying at 1300m second up but now there's two runs under her belt. Looks the leader. 7. Pierossa trialled up nicely alongside Osmose recently and profiles like a potential improver this campaign.
How To Play It: Lekvarte WIN
Race 10 - 5:55PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS WENONA GIRL QUALITY (1200 METRES)
3. C'Est Magique was beaten fair and square by Semana and Olentia in the G3 Triscay Stakes first up but if either of those mares were here, they'd be short-priced favourites. The Grahame Begg-trained mare looked to peak on her run late having been given the perfect trail in behind. No excuses. This field is double the size but has a longer tail. We're getting the same price as two weeks ago in early betting which looks generous given the set up. Tim Clark sticks with the four-year-old and the pair map to get a very similar run in behind the speed. The fact that Begg was happy to run her in the G1 VRC Stakes over the spring gives you an indication of highly he regards her. The one to beat.
Dangers: 6. Wee Nessy is another Melbourne-based mare, for Mick Price and Micheal Kent Jnr. We've only seen her once in Syndey before and she ran Aft Cabin to a narrow margin in the Arrowfield Stakes. May have been flattered by the heavy track. It's been eight weeks since 11. Miss Hellfire was beaten by Lady Laguna at the Gold Coast. Only has to hold that form to be a player here and she has trialled nicely since. 5. Call Di creates interest having her first run for Joe Pride. She too has caught the eye in her trials. 15. Rainbiel looks ready to win now third up out to 1200m, back to mares company. 1. Queen Of The Ball found herself buried away on the inside at Caulfield first up, which was a disadvantage that meeting.
How To Play It: C'est Magique WIN
