3 minute read
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $150,000 Newhaven Park Hunter & North West Country Championships (1400m) at Tamworth on Sunday.
1. Seguso (Cody Morgan, Tamworth): Safely held in this race last year but that was his first preparation with the stable. Won three times since then but all at 1200m and the additional trip is the big question mark. Fair run first-up at Randwick in a Benchmark 78 but is fitter for it. The pluses are home track, blinkers on and ideal draw. If he can be strong at the trip he's not the worst.
2. Rhythm Is A Dancer (Brett Cavanough, Scone): Unbeaten in two runs at this track including at this meeting a year ago when he won a Benchmark 58 over the trip. Winner of the Country Cup at the Scone carnival last year and that's a handy pointer to this sort of race. Only raced once since then and has trialled up okay leading in. Wide gate never a help but he has tactical speed and shouldn't be underestimated.
3. Russley Crown (Scott Singleton, Scone): Brave on pacer who tackled the Barn Dance before a spell at Randwick starting $13 and enduring a tough run. He's been set for this race first-up and his latest trial was over 1200m and he ran second to Detonator Jack. He will roll forward from the wide gate and give his usual good account, how easily he gets there will determine his chances.
4. Super Extreme (Cameron Crockett, Scone): Dual Highway winner and has form around Bandi's Boy from the spring which reads well. He's carried big weights in his two runs back, winning fresh at Dubbo then steaming home from well back in the Preview at Scone to run third. Gets a nice turnaround in the weights on the two who finished ahead of him. Perfect draw for him, he's run well here in the past and is a big chance.
5. Demitasse (Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich, Scone): The stable and jockey won this race last year with Akasawa, this fellow isn't quite as progressive as he was but he's an honest type. Beaten favourite and seemed to have his chance in the lead up on his home track but if you forgive that and look to his second to Whinchat at Kensington before that he's more than capable of showing up. Just been eight starts now since his last win.
6. Our Boy Ollie (Michelle Fleming, Tamworth): Local whose two runs since a break have been okay, stayed on last time at Scone without threatening the placegetters and now steps to 1400m for the first time. Not sure what they do from the gate with him, imagine they look for cover midfield or so, but entitled to be good odds given the query at the trip.
7. Macleay (Cody Morgan, Tamworth): It would be a decent reversal in form if he was to win this after beating one home at Scone last time in the Preview. He didn't have blinkers on there and went back to last from a wide gate, not improving his position much at all. Take that run away and his form is honest at this track and trip but to be fair from that outside alley it'll take a big performance.
8. Retrieval (Jacob Perrett, Tamworth): Hasn't run a place since leaving the Godolphin operation and is with his second trainer in that time. Didn't do enough first-up at Mudgee a couple of weeks ago to recommend him and it would surprise if he found himself in the finish.
9. Unravel (Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich, Scone): Fought on well after a wide run to be tipped out of third in the Preview near the line. Lightly raced and with a good record to date, hasn't been tried at 1400m as yet and is drawn wide. Faces the prospect of another tough run and will need all the breaks.
10. Sting Jet (Brett Cavanough, Scone): Sense of timing about him as he charged home from the second half of the field to score a narrow win in the Preview at Scone. Second-up form is strong with his two other career wins coming under those circumstances though he does have a weight swing against him under these conditions. Against that he's drawn well and has to be respected.
11. Riva Del Sol (Cameron Crockett, Scone): Beaten favourite in two runs back at Walcha and Quirindi, two quite tight tracks, and never looked comfortable last time out but still kept trying to find the line. Not the most ideal set up going straight to 1400m now but she has the inside gate and that will give her every chance to perform.
12. Melody Again (Scott Singleton, Scone): The barrier has really hurt her because she looks on target to run a big race third-up since winning a Highway over 1400m back in August. Hit the lead at Scone last time only to be nabbed near line. Meets the winner 4.5kg better for that narrow loss so if she gets the breaks she could easily turn the tables and that has her right in the mix.
13. Syrian Star (Rodney Northam, Scone): Confidence boosting win third-up at Dubbo in the Western region preview and she did it very easily there. Much stronger company in this but now she's back in form she could go on with it. Her form was patchy before that but she's won at the track so could sneak a place.
14. Rapbidash (Lyle Chandler, Scone): Very interesting runner, she's only had the six starts for three wins and in her three Highway runs she hasn't had a whole lot of luck. Not a bad effort in a strong Highway at Rosehill last time and she looks to have drawn a handy gate. Won't want to be held up in this field as she's been of late but with clear running is one of the major chances as she still has a heap of upside.
15E. Jacenza (Rodney Northam, Scone): Form has been a bit hit and miss through the summer, he won well at Taree three runs back and solid in third at Wyong after that in Benchmark 64 grade. Midfield all the way in the Preview on his home track. Only start here was a maiden win on debut, probably needs a career best to figure.
16E. Sharp Shock (Rodney Northam, Scone): Unlikely he'll line up after running an enormous second in the Group 3 Newcastle Stakes on Friday. His Highway form before that was sound with a second to Belvedere Boys at Rosehill a handy effort. If he does happen to back up he is a definite chance.
17E. Aesthete (Cody Morgan, Tamworth): Import hitting his straps at the right time and he was way too good in a Benchmark 66 over this course three weeks ago. Naturally this is harder but he will be strong at the trip, given he won well over a mile last time in, and could entertain him as an each-way chance.
18E. Ollie's Secret (Jan Bowen, Muswellbrook): Doesn't appear to have come up this preparation as he ended his last with an excellent Highway second placing. Did race at Newcastle on Friday and didn't fire and he'd be unlikely to back up off that.
19E. Know Thyself (Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich, Scone): Huge X-Factor runner if he happens to gain a start. Unbeaten in two starts at very short prices and there's a bit of a rap on this three-year-old. Got out of trouble on debut before racing clear then again never troubled to win a Class 1 on his home track. Takes on a lot stronger opposition this time and doesn't get any weight relief under the set weights. May start unders due to hype but we don't know how good he is so he has to be included.
20E. One Beat No Beat (Scott Singleton, Scone): Looks a promising filly and while beaten as an odds-on favourite first-up at Newcastle she can be forgiven after a wide run, she did hit the front but had no answer late. Much fitter for that and she was dominant winning her two runs before a break. Might find this grade too tough but a horse to watch elsewhere on the program.
SPEED MAP: Rhythm Is A Dancer and Russley Crown are noted speedsters drawn wide so they will look to cross. Some of the support speed comes from emergencies One Beat No Beat and Know Thyself, if they aren't there Unravel and Jacenza can take up spots just off them. Inside draws can see Seguso and Riva Del Sol land just off them. Should be a truly run race.
