3 minute read
Switzerland emerged as Storm Boy’s genuine Slipper threat while Cylinder redeemed his crop in the Newmarket.
Switzerland's Peak
Switzerland remained unbeaten as he beat a deep field of two-year-old colts in the Group 2 Todman Stakes (1200m). As you'd expect, he runs a new peak, now rated 117 which, by Timeform's measure, makes him the highest rated two-year-old in Australia.
It puts him one pound ahead of Storm Boy's Magic Millions win and four pounds ahead of his return win in the Group 2 Skyline Stakes (1200m), but as I said after that win, he was never expected to run a peak there, and it looks a perfect platform for him to nudge the 120 mark.
He'll almost certainly have to do that to win the Golden Slipper now. There's no doubt, outside of Storm Boy, that the Todman is the premier lead up. Switzerland was strong over 1200m and I don't think anything went well enough to suggest they could turn the tables in the Slipper. Espionage was a touch unlucky but wasn't taking ground off the winner late and Straight Charge won't cop any less pressure in a Slipper.
All that said, I still think Storm Boy is very comfortably the horse to beat. His Magic Millions win exuded strength and he did it tough there. The question for him will be if he can take a sit, if need be. There could be a few flies in the proverbial ointment and that may mean not leading on Storm Boy in order to run the most efficient race.
I think he'll be able to do that and win. The price on the day will be interesting because the $2.30 or thereabouts now is probably as short as he'll be- not many horses SP under 3-2 in a Slipper. We should get closer to $3 on the day and that's when he becomes very backable.
In other two-year-old musings, Erno's Cube was well below the Todman, both in time and rating. She ran a new peak of 104 to win the Riesling which is well off what will be required for the Slipper. The only fillies that could win are Hayasugi and Lady Of Camelot, but I doubt either will trouble the top couple.
Holmes A Court ran a new peak to win Sunday's Black Opal at Canberra, rating 105, up from his pair of 101's that he managed in his first two starts. That's a handy rating for a Black Opal of late but he'd need significant improvement to be a factor in the Slipper.
Cylinder Takes Newmarket
Much had been made (a lot of it by us at Racing And Sports) that this three-year-old bunch are well below standard, and that can be measured not just by ratings, but by their wins against the older horses.
Worldwide, three-year-olds perform well against the older horses. If you get a top-class three-year-old who is basically fully developed, getting significant weight off the older horses, they're going to do very well.
That hadn't been the case this season until Saturday where Cylinder became the won first Group 1 winner against older horses from his crop, beating an ever so brave Imperatriz.
Imperatriz gave Cylinder 6.5kg at the weights, and as a mare, effectively 8.5kg given she'd have carried 60kg on Saturday if she were male.
With that weight swing, she's run the best rating in the race at weight-for-age, and on Timeform's scale she's run basically up to her best of 124. That's a fairly rigid scale and I'd argue she wasn't at her absolute best, certainly when you account for the fact she pulled up with EIPH.
Cylinder has run just two pounds off his peak rating which came when beaten 1.2 lengths in The Everest- his Newmarket win coming in at 121.
In terms of other three-year-olds to have won the Newmarket, of which there are another 10 this century, his 121 rating sits at the lower end of the scale, as seen below.
| Year | Horse/Sex | Rating |
| 2023 | In Secret (F) | 120 |
| 2020 | Bivouac (M) | 127 |
| 2019 | Sunlight (F) | 119 |
| 2015 | Brazen Beau (M) | 126 |
| 2013 | Shamexpress (M) | 118p |
| 2010 | Wanted (M) | 126 |
| 2008 | Weekend Hussler (M) | 127 |
| 2005 | Alinghi (F) | 125 |
| 2004 | Exceed And Excel (M) | 126 |
| 2000 | Miss Pennymoney (F) | 122 |
The only male to rate lower was Shamexpress in 2013. Both In Secret and Sunlight, top-class fillies, were also rated lower, but that's not accounting for their four pound allowance if converted to weight-for-age.
Bivouac and Weekend Hussler just edge out Cylinder's recently retired sire, Exceed And Excel, as the best three-year-old winners of the Newmarket.
Going forward, if Imperatriz recovers fine, she should win the William Reid in a cakewalk, and is still comfortably the #1 seed for the T J Smith, as well as the #1 sprinter in the world.
