3 minute read
A look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million Coolmore Classic (1500m) at Rosehill on Saturday.
1. Zougotcha (Chris Waller ): Back to her best with a solid first-up win over subsequent Group 1 WFA winner Lady Laguna, and giving her 3kg too, in the Millie Fox. She won over this course last year in the Phar Lap and the draw has been kind to her in the big field. Although she has 57kg she doesn't look badly treated at all and if there happened to be a shower or two it'd probably be a plus. Beatable, but clearly the horse they have to beat.
2. Revolutionary Miss (Peter & Paul Snowden ): Always shown talent but has gone up a notch in recent months with four wins from her last five starts split by a game third in the Magic Millions Cup. And she's better off at the weights compared to the winner there. What she's displayed of late is an ability to be up on the speed and may have that option with some of the significant speed influences drawn outside her. In peak form and a genuine chance.
3. Semana (Ciaron Maher ): She's come a long way in short time given she won a Benchmark 78 back in July just five runs back. She was strong at the Gold Coast winning off a wide gate then backed it up with a freshen and 200m distance drop and was able to win again at Group 3 level. Hasn't won beyond 1400m as yet but rarely runs a bad race so she will be competitive.
4. Vienna Princess (Chris Waller ): Specked in betting first-up in the Millie Fox and while she was never going to get near Zougotcha from where she was in the run she made some nice late ground. Just behind her was Lekvarte who won last weekend. Meets the top weight 2.5kg worse off for a four length defeat but if you don't care about weights and measures she has a strong second-up record and her Golden Eagle run would have her in the mix.
5. Hinged (Chris Waller ): Ticked over two years since her last win when she was beaten narrowly in the Guy Walter two weeks ago. Ran third in this race two years ago and is regularly a player in WFA races so she's more than good enough to make an impact. Can roll forward from the wide gate to be on the speed and if she gets there without too much work she can give a good account. Has she lost the winning edge? That's the only query.
6. Tropical Squall (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott ): One horse that a wide gate won't bother at all given she's a designated leader and runs her best races that way. Tough performance to lead throughout in the Group 1 Surround and can only be fitter for that. If you want to punch a hole somewhere she was beaten second-up last prep off a win, before winning the Flight third-up, but you know what you're going to get with her and that's a good sight.
7. Deny Knowledge (Michael Kent ): On face value the 1500m is probably a bit short of her best given she was a winner at 2000m in November and stretched to a mile and a half before a spell. She did open her last preparation with a win in a BM100 over this trip at Moonee Valley but this is a different assignment. Wouldn't rule out her running a cheeky race at each-way odds but a win would surprise a bit.
8. Foxy Frida (Andrew Noblet ): Was expected to run a handy race fresh and did just that hitting the line from last into fourth behind Revolutionary Miss at Flemington. Only half a kilo better off and that mare has won again since. Overall she's pretty hard to fault given she's won 10 of 31 and placed another eight with her best form around the mile. There's a case for her to run well given she's down in weight on her last few starts.
9. Madame Pommery (Chris Waller ): Recorded just her second minor placing since she won the Group 1 Thousand Guineas in the 2022 spring when chasing home Zougotcha in the Millie Fox. She's the one out of that race most advantaged by the weights with a 2.5kg swing in her favour but at the same time she wasn't exactly pulling significant ground. Add to that the wide gate and she's going to need some luck unless she can sneak into a nice spot by following the speed over. Think she's the right price.
10. Renaissance Woman (Bjorn Baker ): Didn't fire when resuming in the Millie Fox but that's not unusual for her when you look at that first-up record. She usually improves sharply with the run as her second-up stats will attest and she arrives with blinkers on first time and a soft draw. Weights say she'll struggle to beat Zougotcha but she's been set to produce a bit run in this race and while big odds she's a place chance.
11. Yonce (Ciaron Maher ): Very interesting mare who might be back in business after an all the way win at her third run from an 18 month absence. She was afforded a nice lead there but kept going to beat all comers in a Group 3 over a mile at Caulfield. Since then she's had a jump out and comes up with barrier one. Whether she's up to Group 1 level remains to be seen and we'll find out with the set up she has.
12. Barbie's Fox (Ben, Will & Jd Hayes ): Experienced mare who ran a blinder in the Epsom Handicap in the spring suggesting she's capable of mixing it here against the mares. Some improvement second-up behind Hell Hath No Fury at Randwick, giving away too much start but finding the line pretty well. Meets the runner-up on worse weight terms but if she happened to place it wouldn't shock you.
13. Hell Hath No Fury (Annabel Neasham ): Missed a Benchmark race to be thrown into the Guy Walter and walked away a Group 2 winner, albeit narrow, over Hinged. She drops 2kg on that and draws well which will help and while she's racing in career best form she'll need to go to a new level again.
14. More Secrets (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes ): Last win was a Benchmark 72 in October 2022 on a heavy track but she's been placed at Group 1,2, and 3 level since then. Never going to win first-up in the Guy Walter but she did find the line with some purpose to run third. As her form shows she finds it hard to win at this level but is more than capable of being placed.
15. Ausbred Flirt (Brad Widdup ): Well supported to start second favourite in the Guy Walter and bombed the start so that put her out of play as a winning hope. Not disgraced in beating a couple home there but faces a pretty big task from the outside gate. The likely leader is drawn directly inside her so if she gets away with them that might help her across but it would still be a big effort to win.
16. Jennilala (Ciaron Maher ): Chased a solid tempo when resuming at Flemington a month ago and looked quite dominant holding over a length on the line as a $12 chance. Ticked over with a 1200m trial at Randwick earlier this month and that might be to try to compensate for a drop off in her form second-up which has been the only times she's missed a place. The way she jumped first-up she'll put herself there but does appear to be unders.
17. Kimochi (Gary Portelli ): Not a whole lot went right for her in the Surround as she finished out of the placings for the first time and it can be forgiven. Tried hard when in the clear but given the winner led and controlled she didn't do a bad job to be beaten 3-3/4 lengths. Gate could be tricky for her but she's right down on 50.5kg and if she has any luck at all she has to be a decent chance.
18. Barby's Doll (Jerome Hunter ): Thrown right in the deep end on the back of a third at Pakenham in a Class 3 and you'd have to think this is beyond her at this stage of her career. On the plus side the draw should afford her every chance and you don't get into too many Group 1s with 50kg. That said, prefer others.
SPEED MAP: Tropical Squall is the leader and from the wide gate she'll get across without too much trouble it would seem though the likes of Hinged, Ausbred Flirt and Jennilala could make her do some work. Revolutionary Miss has settled in the first few in all her recent wins in Victoria and imagine she'll use the speed around her to look for a spot up there. Zougotcha will want to hold a position on the handy side and not drift too far back from her inside draw.
