3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Wyong meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 1:15PM SKY CHANNEL MIDWAY MAIDEN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
D-day 5. Hellbent On You, who finds a winnable race and brings a dominant ratings profile relative to his rivals. Her run was full of merit two starts ago where nothing went right, and she flashed home into second, recording some of the meeting's fastest closing slits. The filly then started a solid $3.20 favourite last start at Newcastle but was 28 days between runs and had excuses. Further, she was checked/blocked at key takes, halting her momentum and racing in the inferior ground. She can bounce back here with a wider draw, which suits her racing pattern, and she has multiple winning figures.
Dangers: 8. The Impeckable wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape last start at Scone and had to make a long-wide sustained run. Further, he had to exert too much energy and peaked late. He gets a favourable setup with an inside draw, and Tommy Berry rides. 7. Scorpion Jack comes through the same race, and although having every chance, he can improve again third-up over more ground. 3. King Carlos was solid in defeat on debut at Newcastle and maps to have all favours.
How to play it: Hellbent On You WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 1:50PM KIM WILIAMS APPRECIATION CG&E BM 64 HCP (1200 METRES)
2. Panic resumes off a 131-day break and has had the two trials leading into this, giving him a solid platform. The three-year-old raced well last prep, and prior to spelling, he ran slick time/sectionals to score. Tommy Berry has options from the wide draw as he's an adaptable type, and he always gave the impression that he would come back improved in his second prep.
Dangers: 6. Treasurer, who is a knockout chance, hasn't been suited in his past two high-pressure races. He gets a much more suitable anticipated race shape in this assignment, and a senior rider goes on. 5. Mancconi wasn't suited to the 1000m trip first-up, and he'll be fitter for that with more ground suiting. 1. Reggie's Boy has a tactical map advantage, and his first-up rating puts him in the finish.
How to play it: Panic WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 2:25PM TREVOR WARD APPRECIATION F&M BM 64 HCP (1200 METRES)
3. Bolero Belle can bounce back here with a much more suitable race setup, and she represents value. The filly was rising sharply in trip last start at Rosehill in a stronger grade but had excuses. Further, she raced keenly in a farcically run race and didn't run out the trip. Her prior start, her effort had merit at Canterbury in a strong time race won by Les Vampires after having the pace/bias against her. The Chris Waller-trained runner returns to the provincial circuit on a dry track where she produces her peak figures, and this distance range is ideal. Each-way.
Dangers: 4. Cross Your Heart was heavily backed last start at this track, and she broke through for her maiden win in style. She went through the line full of energy, recording the meeting's fastest final 200m split and pricked her ears. Can make it back-to-back wins. 1. Queen Bess has gone to a new level this prep, winning two from two and draws to have all favours. 8. Suprina will roll forward and give a sight.
How to play it: Bolero Belle E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 3:05PM DE BORTOLI WINES PROVINCIAL BM 64 HCP (1350 METRES)
6. Navios was well-backed first-up at Hawkesbury 22 days ago, and he was honest in defeat, running second. He went to a new level, producing a career peak figure, and all key indicators suggest he can step off that performance. Further, his late sectional strength suggests the extra ground will be ideal, and an aggressive ride from the wide draw is expected. The gelding gets in well with the claim and can bounce back into the winner's stall.
Dangers: Market watch on 8. Israelite Bay, who is now in trainer Nathan Doyle's hands, has had the two trials leading into this. He has multiple winning ratings and profiles well for this event. 9. Red Cobra has a strong record at this track and 5. Take The Jackpot was a solid winner last start at this track/distance. 4. Prince Aurelis will roll forward and can give a sight.
How to play it: Navios WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 3:40PM TAB.COM.AU MAIDEN PLATE (1000 METRES)
12. Ragga Ragga was extremely well-backed on debut at Kensington but had excuses in a high-rating race. Further, although beaten, that market intelligence must be respected. She has had the two trials leading into this assignment and went through the line full of energy in her latest heat at Hawkesbury. Expect her to roll forward from the inside gate, and reproducing her trial form will make her hard to beat.
Dangers: Debutant 3. Cassiel showed speed in a recent trial at Rosehill and ran a slick time to win relative to the morning. The Snowden-trained runner receives the nose roll for race day to help with his manners and will push forward from the soft draw. First starter 7. Bethsheba has trialled up well and wasn't extended to win her latest heat at Beaumont. 1. Keysborough brings a race experience edge and can rate to win.
How to play it: Ragga Ragga WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 4:20PM THE CENTRAL COAST MARINERS SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1600 METRES)
Keen on 4. Spanish Fox, who profiles well for this event and was solid in defeat last start, running second at Kembla Grange in a high-rating race. The gelding had every chance but sprinted and kept building through his gears to record one of the meeting's fastest final 200m splits. Further, he beat the rest easily, confirming the race's quality. He draws trickyly but has the early speed to cross from the wide draw. In addition, he brings the clear best last-start figure and will take some catching.
Dangers: 7. Miss Uchitel was caught three-wide out on a limb in a fast-pace first-up at Hawkesbury, and to her credit, she never shirked her task to the line. That race rated extremely well, and any improvement on that effort will put her near the finish. 8. Amnesia comes through the same race and will appreciate the rise in trip. 3. High Dandy was well-backed first-up at Kembla, and he ran on hard into second, recording fast closing splits. 6. All Too Rosey is a consistent type.
How to play it: Spanish Fox ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 4:55PM WYONG LEAGUES GROUP CONDITIONAL BM 68 HCP (1600 METRES)
11. Rothrock bolted in last start at Muswellbrook, and the clock backed up her visual dominance. The mare always saved ground, but she sprinted one of the fastest 400m-200m splits and knuckled down late to score with style. She does have to transfer her wet track form to dry, but she maps to have all favours and can absorb the pressure. In addition, she can sprint off slow/fast tempos and is at optimal fitness. Each-way.
Dangers: 6. Gardenzio had all favours when winning at this track/distance last start but did it easily. He must overcome a tricky draw but expect an aggressive ride early. 8. Oakfield Redgum maps to have all favours and is ready to peak third-up. 3. Side Show will appreciate the anticipated genuine tempo and has the closing speed to run over the top of his rivals. Add 1. Kiptanui to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Rothrock E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 8 - 5:35PM CARLTON & UNITED BREWERIES BM 64 HCP (1000 METRES)
7. Unstopabull is ready to peak third-up and finds a winnable race here. The gelding's two efforts this campaign have had sectional merit, and he had too much to do last start at Rosehill. Further, he had to exert all his energy between the 600m-200m before peaking on his run. He sets up well in this event with a significant barrier change and can settle closer from the inside draw. Additionally, he's coming out of time/sectional merit races and expect him to be in the finish.
Dangers: 8. Opal Fields can improve sharply back on top of the ground and is a lightly raced improver. She has a tricky draw but has the key asset of acceleration to sprint over the top of her rivals. Market watch on 1. Dreaming Of Vegas who went out on a career peak figure and resumes without an official public barrier trial. Add and 6. Split Decision to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Unstopabull WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
