3 minute read
Track Good 4 and rail true.
Race 1 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):
We start with the maidens on a track that is likely to slip back just into soft soft range, with some rain forecast. Emerging colt 3. King Carlos can improve enough from his debut run to break through here jumping from the inside gate. Worked home well enough at Newcastle, and naturally being by So You Think the extra furlong here is a major boost. Settles a few lengths off the speed, and with any luck cuts loose at the top of the straight. Was scratched from Wyong on Thursday to run here.
Dangers: Winkers importantly replace blinkers aboard 6. Suspect third-up dropping back from a deeper metropolitan lineup. Watch the betting around 1. Hellbetta, resuming for a third prep behind two improving trials; while 10. Iconic Miss is each way value sneaking a little further down in the weights fourth-up.
How to play it: King Carlos to win
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):
The maidens again over a touch further, and there's plenty to like at the big value about four-year-old 5. Outlander second-up since spring. Worked home okay at huge odds in a metro Super Maiden 17 days ago, and this is a well placed follow-up assignment back to the provincials from another soft trailing draw.
Dangers: Progressive and lightly raced 2. Draco's Fire looked all set to win at Scone in a handy maiden when he was swamped by one late. Tougher draw here, but has more than enough ability. Don't underestimate 3. Vermillion Dragon on debut as a gelding at big odds for the Ciaron Maher yard. Bred to stay, and has been handed two quiet trials up to 1200m. Include 1. Brazil at his third start; and 7. Chentileeno back a shade in trip second-up off a four week break in all trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Outlander each way
Race 3 STAYERS' CUP BENCHMARK 68 HCP (2400m):
The stayers lock horns here, and it shapes ideally for improving mare 5. Wilshire Boulevard who finds a very winnable race deep into her prep. Won three starts back before stepping up sharply with two gallant close-up efforts in a much tougher metro company. Those runs read well for this, and she's the best weighted runner after the jockey's claim.
Dangers: Tough 1. Notabadbuy has built a solid record from 14 starts, and comes in very fit fifth-up. Led all the way in a weaker race at Canberra two starts ago before run down in deeper city company last time. Will give a sight. Both consistent 2. Insider Trader off a narrow provincial BM 64 win; and 3. Fun Sunday coming back to a weaker affair; are in the hunt at each way odds.
How to play it: Wilshire Boulevard to win
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):
A maiden dominated by metro raiders, and the only two-year-old in the field, Written Tycoon colt 14. Media World only has to get over from the wide barrier without being used up too much to be the one to beat. Wasn't beaten far in Listed company at Caulfield before Xmas, and signalled he's ready now for a big first full prep with a convincing trial win late last month. Winkers come off.
Dangers: Improving filly 10. Kirragirl is a natural threat back to provincial level at her third start from a soft trailing draw. Failed to hit the line on debut, but kept chasing hard behind the winner at Rosehill last time. Should park in the box seat. Gap to the rest headed by 9. Khaznah who has to overcome a tricky draw here with a gear change, but two runs so far from on speed have been sound. Capable 2. Bottler was ridden way too close at his second start, but settling a bit further back here with cover, expect him to be charging into the finish over this distance. Over the odds is 8. Helldancer third-up from the inside gate; while I Am Invincible filly 12. Resilient Miss on debut for the Chris Waller stable behind two quiet trials; heads the rest.
How to play it: Media World to win
Race 5 BENCHMARK 94 HCP (1200m):
Tough six-year-old 1. Waihaha Falls can strike here coming back in trip second-up off a seven week turnaround. Came off a five week break to do his best work late in the Listed Carrington at Randwick, and kept on the fresher side again, he looks well placed in this company with the jockey taking 3kg off.
Dangers: Smart stallion 6. Garza Blanca resumes off two progressive trials with blinkers going on. Progressed through the city grades impressively last prep, and sitting on the limit weight, he will likely jump clear favourite. Another one first-up off two trials, 5. Russian Conquest is drawn to get a charmed run; while 3. Key Largo third-up with a class drop; and 8. Flying Sultan behind a last start win in weaker grade; can add value into trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Waihaha Falls to win
Race 6 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1400m):
Talented mare 4. Movader hasn't won for a while, and can be hard to catch, but this suits fourth-up over a furlong further. Twice found the line fairly against similar opposition in Victoria before being ridden quieter and hitting the line late in a deeper metro race. Drawn to park no worse than midfield from a handy draw, and switching to the bigger track is key.
Dangers: Big watch on progressive 1. Los Padres who charged home for a dominant Class 3 country win second-up, and this is within his reach, especially if the late rain arrives. Keep very safe well-bred 6. Kingdom Of Logres resuming as a gelding behind two quiet trials. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Owari who returns off two trials; and 10. Napoleon Solo down sharply in weight from the inside draw.
How to play it: Movader to win
Race 7 KEMBLA GRANGE CLASSIC (1600m):
Now for the Group 3 feature over a mile for the three-year-old fillies, and there are plenty of chances. Progressive 1. Arctic Glamour has a tonne of ability, and can peak third-up on a class drop here stepping up a furlong in distance. Hasn't been overly suited in two runs back, both times doing her best work late from near the tail up to Group 1 company. Gets an even firmer track to perform here, although won't want too much late rain turning up.
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 2. Tutta La Vita who hit the line hard into a place at huge odds when resuming in the Group 1 Surround. Very well suited under the set weights & penalties conditions of the race, but again will likely be forced to go a long way back from a wide barrier. Must keep safe progressive 4. Mare Of Mt Buller who returned with a dominant midweek BM 72 win at Rosehill, and loves dry ground. Big watch too on 3. Harlow Mist who is some value second-up from a low draw, and coming back from Group 2 company. Smart 7. Private Legacy rebounded after failing as a hot favourite, flooding home from the back to thrash Class 1 opposition here a fortnight ago. This is much tougher, but she drops sharply in weight and has a big finishing motor. At bigger odds 5. Queen Of Dragons and 6. Kind Words, both second-up; are capable of running into the minor money.
How to play it: Arctic Glamour to win
Race 8 MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1600m):
A wide open closer as well, but it stacks up well for home tracker 7. This Is The Moment peaking third-up, and staying at the mile. Found the line okay here last time, although was no match for Private Legacy but she could well shake the life out of the Group 3 showdown prior. Only win so far from nine starts came at this track last spring when he roared home from the second half.
Dangers: Keep safe rival local 3. Extreme Freedom who hasn't been far away all prep, often in deeper races, and gets an important gear change. Another one trained on the track, 1. Vain Invader held his ground fairly into a place in a Provincial C'ship Qualifier 13 days ago. Both 2. Victory At Omaha fourth-up; and 9. Atomic Forty Seven third-up from the inside draw; go in the exotics.
How to play it: This Is The Moment to win
