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An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $150,000 Newhaven Park WRA Country Championships (1400m) at Coonamble on Sunday.
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $150,000 Newhaven Park WRA Country Championships (1400m) at Coonamble on Sunday.
1. Listen To The Band (Clint Lundholm, Dubbo): Easy winner of this race last year but hasn't raced since due to injury costing him his place in the Final. Three trials in the past six weeks and the latest was quite a strong one, a little race-like. He has a versatile racing pattern and from the soft gate he should land just behind the speed. It'll be a big training performance if he can win this first-up and a year after his last run but he's very smart when he's in order and it would be no surprise if he won.
2. Elson Boy (Dar Lunn, Dubbo): Aside from a couple of Highway runs this up and comer is racing in super form. He was run down at Mudgee two starts back but gave nothing else a chance leading all the way at Dubbo last week. Goes forward and is the probable leader, has Tommy Berry to ride and he could give them something to catch.
3. Sizzle Minizzle (Brett Robb, Dubbo): Runner-up in this race last year and won the Country Championships Final on a heavy track at Randwick. Aside from his Hawkesbury Guineas fourth placing after that win he's not been the same horse though he has been racing in city company and The Kosciuszko. So you can forgive him a bit. Did make a little late ground first-up at Randwick. Will appreciate the return to this class of race and if he can find some form he has to be considered.
4. Pants On Fire (Dar Lunn, Dubbo): On pacer who has won five of her last nine starts including three of her last four so she arrives her going as well as she can. Shrugged off a Dubbo failure with a win under 60kg at Bathurst last start and drops in weight. This is her biggest test but will put herself in the race somewhere and give a good account.
5. Beagle (Merv Rumble, Dubbo): Sent out a $21 chance and didn't make an impact behind Elson Boy on his home track last week. Comes down 5.5kg for this race but it's tough to see him turning it around. Prefer in something easier.
6. Cloud Factory (Stephen Edwards, Dubbo): Two runs back since a 12 month absence have been pretty solid overall while being no match for the winner. Held his ground at Dubbo up to 1300m last time out and has the soft draw that will see him land in the first half of the field. Just been a while between wins now so perhaps he's a place chance in a stronger race.
7. Gallant Star (Brett Robb, Dubbo): The race revolves around this promising four-year-old who is a worthy favourite. Impressed winning a Highway at Randwick in December before a game second in a Benchmark 72 at Rosehill under 58.5kg and with another 2kg on board a handy fourth at Canterbury a month ago. He hit the line well there suggesting 1400m with 56kg on his back will be right up his alley. Drawn to stalk and whatever beats him will win.
8. Hallowed Star (Clint Lundholm, Dubbo): Just the one win from 13 starts and form lately has been patchy at best. Good effort at Walcha two runs back from well back in the field but didn't fire at all as favourite in a Benchmark 50 at Orange. It's a bit hard to make a case for him to be in the finish on form.
9. Nannu (Brett Robb, Dubbo): Wheels seem to have fallen off a bit in his last couple of starts since rising in grade following a Class 2 win at Gilgandra. Battled at best at Dubbo in the preview a month ago and actually rises in weight into this. Tends to get back and may appreciate a strong tempo but still needs to find a bit.
10. Nest In The Hills (Clint Lundholm, Dubbo): Doesn't appear to have come up this time in with four disappointing efforts in the past couple of months. He was showing some promise before that and while he's down 5kg on his run at Dubbo last week behind Elson Boy he will need to lift sharply.
11. Raiding (Garry Lunn, Dubbo): More of a staying type who resumes since winning a 2200m event at Dubbo and missing a place as favourite at Orange back in October. First-up record is only fair and from the wide gate imagine he gives away a start fresh over the shorter trip. You'd expect him to be running on if there's pace on here but shouldn't play a role in the finish.
12. Transplant (Clint Lundholm, Dubbo): Inclined to ignore her first-up run behind Sting Jet at Scone under 60kgh where she sat handy then faded. That race was much stronger than this, aside from a couple of her rivals, and she will be fitter. Winner over this trip at Orange before a break and is capable of being placed.
13. Charlotting (Michael Lunn, Dubbo): Has been mixing her distances without any success of late and is up in class on her latest effort at Dubbo last week. Draws wide again, both wins are at a mile and in easier races than this.
14. Rubi Air (Brett Robb, Dubbo): Impressive enough winner of a BM58 at Cowra in January as favourite off a wide gate then led again and boxed on okay at Dubbo beaten under two lengths in the same grade. Yet to win beyond 1200m and has yet again drawn a wide gate so she has her work cut out for her.
SPEED MAP: There's potential for good speed with Elson Boy a noted front-runner, Pants On Fire and Transplant also liking to race on the speed. Listen To The Band has pace to hold a spot from an inside gate and Rubi Air usually presses on when drawing wide. Gallant Star likely lets the speed go and sits midfield or a bit better.
SELECTIONS:
7 GALLANT STAR
1 Listen To The Band
2 Elson Boy
3 Sizzle Minizzle
