3 minute read
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $150,000 Newhaven Park Country Championships Northern Wild Card (1400m) at Scone on Friday.
1. Jacenza (Rodney Northam, Scone): Interesting to note his last two wins have come from the front including a runaway win at Tamworth over 1200m where he drew to be handy and took control of the race. Down 1.5kg and has a slightly different set up here from a wide gate so it's debatable whether he can find the lead. Was safely held in the Championships preview at this track from off the pace so will need to improve on that effort.
2. Rhythm Is A Dancer (Brett Cavanough, Scone): Forced to do a lot of the chasing up on the speed when the winner crossed to the front in the Championships at Tamworth so didn't do a bad job to battle on and run fourth. Was first-up since September there at 1400m so has to be fitter for it and if Jacenza looks to go forward he might get a nice cart across. That'd give him a chance to put himself in the race. Has a win over Russley Crown over this course which is good form for this race.
3. Bantarki (Tony Ball, Taree): Cruelly cut out of second and a berth in the Final when third at Tuncurry on a heavy track a month ago. Up to 60kg in a Benchmark 64 at Newcastle two weeks ago and stayed out without making a huge impact to run fourth. His biggest problem is that outside barrier given he prefers to race somewhere near the speed so it's going to take an off fence pattern or a big effort from him to be in the finish.
4. Imprinted (Lyn Thomson, Coffs Harbour): A consistent type who went around as a $71 chance in the Championships at Grafton and didn't do a bad job to run sixth beaten 2.5 lengths. It's worth a shot at this race, and he's drawn to get every chance, but on form he needs to find a bit.
5. Our Boy Ollie (Michelle Fleming, Tamworth): Had tough runs at his last couple so there's a case to say he's going better than the form suggests. Wasn't beaten far in the Preview here last month after sitting four wide and again tracked deep at Tamworth from up on the speed and weakened. Whether 1400m finds him out is a question but it wouldn't shock if he got the breaks and a ran a cheeky race.
6. Sizzle Minizzle (Brett Robb, Dubbo): Raced closer to the speed than anticipated and just battled away in fourth behind Elson Boy at Coonamble last week. If he does back up here he'll face a tough run should he go forward but he doesn't appear to be the same horse that won the Country Championships Final last year. His best chance would be on a heavy track.
7. That's Molly (Glen Milligan, Taree): Was considered one of the leading chances in the Championships at Tuncurry and just didn't get into it after going back off a wide gate. Outclassed in the Newcastle Stakes when again out the back and never a player. Wide gate is again harmful to her cause, on her best efforts she's not out of place but two runs back haven't worked out for her.
8. Belvedere Boys (Matthew Dunn, Murwillumbah): Logical favourite and clearly the horse to beat after a strong Highway win at Rosehill a month ago when a well supported favourite, beating Sharp Shock who has been Group 3 placed since and Rapbidash who ran second in the Championships at Tamworth. James Orman has won on the horse and gets the perfect gate. Should take stopping.
9. Macleay (Cody Morgan, Tamworth): Not a bad effort to finish midfield at Tamworth after going back to last from the outside barrier. It'll be interesting to see what tactics are applied this time though he's not drawn a whole lot more favourably. Scored a big win in a Class 2 over 1400m four starts back and while things will need to go his way he could sneak a place.
10. Retrieval (Jacob Perrett, Tamworth): A massive hidden run out of the Championships at Tamworth where he went around at $201 but did an enormous job to run sixth. Found himself last on the home turn and swung wide before powering home to be beaten 3.5 lengths. The challenge for him is to repeat the effort.
11. Sharp Shock (Rodney Northam, Scone): Didn't gain a start in the Tamworth race so went to Newcastle and ran out of his skin to finish second behind Rustic Steel in the Group 3 Newcastle Stakes, sending his rating soaring. Ran on from last through the field to claim the runner-up spot on the line. Unfortunately he's drawn off the track here so will be conceding a start and meets Belvedere Boys 3kg worse for their Highway clash in February. Still, on his home track, he has to be considered.
12. Sting Jet (Brett Cavanough, Scone): Produced a solid finish to get up near the line in the Preview first-up from a break before a game third in the Championships race at Tamworth, proving himself up to this company at set weights. Interestingly, he was a drifter in betting there so he could be open to a bit more improvement. Should be able to find a back to follow into the race and likely gets his chance.
13. Moskeeta (Cathleen Rode, Coffs Harbour): Has been a bit hit and miss and her best form has come on soft and heavy ground, so if the track stays soft it won't hurt her cause. Led all the way to win a Class 3 on her home track just over a week ago, bouncing back after a midfield finish in the Championships at Grafton. Gate one gives her the chance for an easy run but on what we've seen she'll need a peak here.
14. Melody Again (Scott Singleton, Scone): Ran off the track on the corner at Tamworth, which is unusual for her, so that can be forgiven. She was more favoured than her stablemate who won the race. Since had the tickover trial to please the stewards and on her close second to Sting Jet in the Preview she's right in this. Is a 1400m Highway winner and draws nicely this time around. One of the main hopes.
15. One Beat No Beat (Scott Singleton, Scone): Arguably beaten by the barrier at Tamworth in a Benchmark 58 after she was left stranded as an emergency in the Championships race. Huge effort to be beaten a nose after racing four and five wide without cover yet still tried to mow them down. She's down 5.5kg and draws perfectly for her style of racing, she's the one on the way up and is a serious danger.
16. Syrian Star (Rodney Northam, Scone): Too good out at Dubbo winning easily there in mid-February before heading to Tamworth and she ran about as well as she can in fifth after having a handy enough passage. Bar plates go back on and she's drawn wide which likely sees her giving away a decent head start. Usually runs on so at a minimum she'll do that.
17E. Ollie's Secret (Jan Bowen, Muswellbrook): Doesn't appear to be racing as well as he can this preparation, his Highway runs have been fair at best and didn't do a whole lot at Newcastle last time out from the back off a wide gate. Faces that wide alley again and while his best form is handy enough for this race he's not showing it.
18E. Exonumia (Cody Morgan, Tamworth): Rarely runs a bad race and could be a player if he gains a start, though he will need to step up to the plate in a tougher race. Solid behind his stablemate over this trip two starts back then back to 1200m and ran well at Tamworth in a Class 2. Doesn't get a lot of weight relief but has a nice draw and his honesty will take him a long way.
19E. Belle Tycoon (Ethan Ensby, Casino): Found a bit of form second-up when leading and run down late at Beaudesert last week. Didn't show as much fight at Doomben when resuming in a Class 3. Will find this a considerably harder assignment and she's entitled to be decent odds.
SPEED MAP: If the emergencies aren't there then Jacenza has the chance to get across and led with Rhythm Is A Dancer coming over with him. Bantarki also has that option from the outside gate. One Beat No Beat, Exonumia and Imprinted have the draws to be handy without working too much. Melody Again is another with some early speed to find a spot. Belvedere Boys could be anywhere from just behind the speed to in the second half from an ideal draw. Sharp Shock expected to go back.
