3 minute read
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $1.5 million Kia Tancred Stakes (2400m) at Rosehill Gardens.
1. Buckaroo (Chris Waller): This fellow brings some real Group 1 weight-for-age form into the contest and if he can run out 2400m then he'll be taking some beating. Both his runs this time in have had merit, he was an eye-catcher in the Apollo first-up then went five weeks between runs and up to 2000m in last week's Ranvet. No match for Via Sistina but he was strong through the line on the inside which was thought to be a bit inferior. Clearly the best credentialed and this is his Group 1 chance.
2. Military Mission (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Seems to be tracking pretty well for the Sydney Cup in a few weeks and he also comes through the Ranvet where he finished a bit over a length behind Buckaroo. In his favour is he's proven at the distance with three wins at the trip against his name and one of those at weight-for-age in the Sandown Classic. Expect he'll roll forward from the outside and in a race with little speed on paper this could be an opportunity for him.
3. Ashrun (Ciaron Maher): Enjoyed a very strong tempo in the Pakenham Cup and exploded in the straight when he was in the clear for an easy win. With the sort of run he had a performance of nothing less should have been expected. He's another on the Sydney Cup path where he'll get in with a light weight and given he carried 58kg last start it's not like he's facing a massive weight rise. He goes into the mix as a chance but he certainly won't get a fast run race like last time.
4. More Felons (Chris Waller): Finished five lengths behind Ashrun in the Melbourne Cup and we haven't seen him for a month or so since he won the Parramatta Cup in a close finish back on February 24. Interestingly he was sent to Victoria for a barrier trial at Donald just over a week ago over 1200m. Nothing about him says weight-for-age winner at this stage but he does have James McDonald and a field comprised of a lot of similar horses. You'd be looking for a nice Sydney Cup pointer from him.
5. Post Impressionist (William Haggas): Three starts ago he was a $41 chance in an Ebor and ran ninth, here he is seven months later and he's $2.50 or so in a Group 1 weight-for-age race. We talk about the JMac tax, the Haggas tax could well be something too! He couldn't haven been more impressive winning the Manion Cup in a canter last week and you don't blame connections for seeing an opportunity in a $1.5m race. He has to back up, carry 4.5kg more and meet a bit better opposition here. The aim was the Sydney Cup, this is clearly an afterthought on the back of that win last week, but we don't know how good he is yet.
6. Gear Up (Annabel Neasham): Almost a year after a promising Australian debut, which came at this meeting, this import posted his first win a couple of weeks back in a Listed 2000m handicap at Caulfield. He was a $15 chance. Much harder here but he is now back in form and will race on the pace if those last couple are any guide. Still needs find a few lengths in this company you would think.
7. Kalapour (Kris Lees): No weight-for-age form to speak of but he arrives at his pet distance range third-up and on the back of a sound effort in the Sky High where, while no match for Lindermann, he worked home okay. Last win was an all the way one over 2500m at Flemington last November. Up 3.5kg on last start and could find himself in the placings.
8. Bois D'Argent (Annabel Neasham): One win in Australia to date and that was the Lord Mayors Cup back in May last year. Ran a handy race in the Caulfield Cup before a spell and tried hard when chasing Serpentine fresh over 2000m at Randwick. Loomed to win that race but was outgunned. Appears better off under handicap conditions and hasn't won beyond 2000m as yet but you could see him giving some kind of sight.
9. Athabascan (John O'Shea): Set to be ridden back from the wide gate and that probably suits his style. He sat third in the run when a battling fourth behind Lindermann second-up so he's ready for the step up in distance. Just failed to beat Kalapour when they clashed at Flemington and is another with no real weight-for-age props. A handy Sydney Cup trial is quite likely from him.
10. Little Mix (SCRATCHED).
11. Tom Kitten (James Cummings): He's so hard to line up taking on the older horses on the back of a disappointing run in the Rosehill Guineas last week. Perhaps he had some excuses as he made his run on the inside but he was still below par. That said, this isn't a vintage Tancred and he gets the weight advantage of 5kg off all the other runners. If he finds the form that saw him thump his Spring Champion rivals last time in then there's no every reason to think he will be dangerous.
Speed Map: Not a lot of it here, if recent form is any guide then it's left to Gear Up and Military Mission to set the tempo. Kalapour and Bois D'Argent settle in trailing spots just off them. Post Impressionist may land a little closer naturally from a kinder draw than he had last week where they went back. Buckaroo and Tom Kitten have decisions to make from the second half of the draw.
SELECTIONS:
1 BUCKAROO
5 Post Impressionist
11 Tom Kitten
3 Ashrun
