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The Australian Derby is one of four Group 1 races scheduled to be run on Day 1 of The Championships this Saturday at Royal Randwick.
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As would be expected with $2 million in prize money on the line, the 2024 edition of the race has attracted a strong field of three-year-old stayers including three Group 1 winners.
Major Beel won last year's race on a heavy track, and it looks like wet conditions will again greet this year's runners.
The Chris Waller-trained Riff Rocket is the current favourite for Saturday's Classic and will look to become one of only a handful of horses to have won the Victoria Derby/Australian Derby double.
The Tulloch Stakes has proven over the years to be a great guide for the Australian Derby with nine horses completely the double since 1973 which bodes well for Wymark.
The colours of the powerful Godolphin operation will be worn by Zardozi and Tom Kitten who are highly thought of by the market as the second and third favourites.
Zardozi will look to become just the fifth filly to win the time honoured feature in the past 70 years.
We have analysed every horse in the field and our complete Australian Derby preview and judgement can be found below. (Prices listed were current at time of publishing)
1. Riff Rocket (10)
Price: $3.60
The three-year-old gelding enters the Australian Derby as the horse to beat following an impressive display to win the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas last start.
Aided by a Nash Rawiller special, the son of American Pharaoh gradually improved from the back of the field to let down powerfully and win by just under a length.
He's built an imposing record in his 10-start career, winning on six occasions including the Group 1 Victoria Derby and Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes.
While he has never been on a heavy track, he has run well on soft going as demonstrated by his 5.5 length win in the Listed Super Impose Stakes during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival.
James McDonald will partner him for the first time since they won the Victoria Derby together.
He has a slightly tricky gate to deal with but there is no doubting that he brings elite form to this race and looks hard to beat.
2. Tom Kitten (3)
Price: $5.50
The James Cummings-trained colt fought bravely in the Rosehill Guineas last start but was overpowered late to finish 1.6 lengths sixth.
He has raced below expectations this time in work but enters this race rock hard fit and can produce a peak performance fifth-up.
That was the case last preparation for the son of Harry Angel when making a mess of his rivals by 3.8 lengths in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes.
Adam Hyeronimus was in the saddle that day and will again be on Saturday.
He's drawn to get a great run and won his only previous heavy track race.
3. Ceolwulf (5)
Price: $11.00
The son of Tavistock caught the eye in the Rosehill Guineas doing his best work late to finish just under a length second to Riff Rocket.
That run suggested that the Joe Pride-trained colt will eat up the 2400m here.
He will be at peak fitness fourth-up and gets the services of Blake Shinn, who is riding in supreme form.
The only knock on him is that he has only won once in seven starts.
4. Cap Ferret (7)
Price: $15.00
A change of tactics nearly paid off in the Rosehill Guineas with the Chris Waller-trained son of Snitzel settling handy before being picked off in the final furlong to finish third by 1.1 lengths.
He finished runner-up to Tom Kitten in the Spring Champions Stakes proving that he is adept at the staying trips.
The colt will enter this race at peak fitness, but he has one glaring negative, he's still a maiden after 12 starts.
He would need to lift to play a role in the finish and gets his chance to do so, given his breeding suggests he will enjoy a rain-affected surface.
5. Ganbare (1)
Price: $26.00
The Waterhouse and Bott stable won this race last year with Major Beel who led all the way, and they will look to do the same with this guy.
He took up the running in the Rosehill Guineas last start and did well to finish 1.3 lengths fourth.
From the inside barrier, he maps to get a beautiful run.
However, the son of Maurice is yet to win beyond 1600m which came in the Listed Dulcify Stakes so I'm happy to look past him.
6. Immediacy (13)
Price: $15.00
The Busuttin and Young-trained son of Tarzino tasted defeat for the first time in his four-start career in Rosehill Guineas.
He was far from disgraced, racing on speed and fighting strongly for a 1.4 length fifth.
That was his first race going the Sydney way so he will better for the experience.
His win in the Group 2 Caulfield Autumn Classic two starts ago suggests that he can finish in the placings.
7. Wymark (14)
Price: $7.00
Connections paid the $44,000 late entry fee for this race after the gelding impressively won the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes last start.
That was the Michael Freedman-trained son of Savabeel's fourth win in a row and given he keeps improving with each run, he has to be considered one of the leading chances.
His breeding suggests he'll have little problem with the 2400m, and he has proven that he loves getting his toe in the ground.
Tommy Berry has built a great relationship with the three-year-old and has given an inspiring vote of confidence to his mount's chances.
Unfortunately, he will need to overcome the outside barrier in the field of 14.
8. Noisy Boy (8)
Price: $26.00
The Todd Howlett-trained gelding produced a career best performance last start when finding the line strongly to finish second by just under a length in the Tulloch Stakes.
Prior to that his best effort was a four-length maiden win in a midweek race at Kensington.
While he was very good last start, he would have to go to another level again to be considered a realistic winning hope.
9. Glad You Think So (4)
Price: $51.00
The run of John Sargent's colt in the Tulloch Stakes last start was better than it reads on paper.
He was held up with 300m to go and given the race was out of his reach at that point, the jockey took it easy on him in the concluding stages.
However, this race looks far too rich for him.
10. Adagio (11)
Price: $101.00
The son of Pierro is an interesting runner from the Waterhouse and Bott stable.
He enters this race on the back of a dominant Class 1 win over 2000m at Canberra.
This is undoubtably a massive rise in class and he's drawn poorly, but he's only lightly raced, won on a wet track and will race on speed so he could give some cheek at triple figure odds.
11. Zenmaster (9)
Price: $101.00
Hard to see the Craig Carmody-trained gelding providing much resistance here given he was run down and beaten by 3.8 lengths last start in a Newcastle Class 1 Handicap over 1850m.
12. Hooligan Tommy (12)
Price: $101.00
John Sargent is having a massive throw at the stumps with the son of Ocean Park who is still a seven-start provincial maiden, but he would have been better served taking his other option this week at Newcastle.
13. Saxon Brave (6)
Price: $201.00
The rank outsider of the field enters this race on the back of a close Grafton maiden win so this looks well beyond his capabilities.
14. Zardozi (2)
Price: $4.20
It takes a special filly to win the Australian Derby and the pride of the James Cummings and Godolphin team may just be it.
The daughter of Kingman warmed up for this race with a stellar performance in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes where she tracked New Zealand superstar Orchestral all the way to finish 1.3 lengths third.
She should be at peak fitness now and the rise to 2400m is in her favour given she bolted in by 2.3 lengths to win the Group 1 VRC Oaks over 2500m last preparation, when also on a quick back-up.
A wet track will pose no fears and she may even revel in it given she won her only previous heavy track race and has won four from six on soft going.
From barrier 2, Jamie Kah can give her an economical run and every chance to enter the history books.
The Judgement
Zardozi is the only filly in the field, but I think it's a brilliant move by James Cummings to avoid Orchestral in the Australian Oaks next week and attack the Australian Derby on Saturday.
She was brilliant two starts back winning the Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes before turning in a great warm up for her rise to this distance last start when third in the Vinery Stud Stakes.
A quick back-up worked to perfection during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival when she easily won the VRC Oaks.
Jamie Kah has an excellent strike-rate riding for Cummings and will give her filly the run of the race.
Selections:
1st – Zardozi
2nd – Wymark
3rd – Riff Rocket
4th – Immediacy
