3 minute read

Track Heavy 9/10 and rail true:

Race 1 2YO HCP (1000m):

We start Gold Cup day with the sprinting youngsters on a surface likely to be well into heavy range with plenty of lead-up rain. Most are on debut, including the value filly 5. Incantress from the Kris Lees stable. Was rock solid through the line in two close-up soft track trials last month, draws to get the right run, and the Per Incanto stock are reliable in heavy going.

Dangers: Naturally plenty of them starting with the early short priced fancy 4. The Eyes Have It who reloads off a two month break, and steady trial. Hit the line hard on debut at Scone before tackling much tougher Group 3 company at Randwick, finishing five lengths from Lady Of Camelot who subsequently of course went on to win the Group 1 Golden Slipper. Keep safe 9. Shoutaboutit who has plenty of ability, and resumes for only her third outing behind an easy provincial trial. Was scratched from Newcastle on Wednesday to be saved for this. Both debutant Capitalist colt 2. Mogul Monarch off two progressive trials; and at bigger odds 3. Supreme Statement second-up and bred to handle the going; can run into the money.

How to play it: Incantress to win

Race 2 SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1280m):

Competitive race, although smart four-year-old debutant 3. Monty The Missile from the Waterhouse-Bott stable looms as the one to beat. Has been given plenty of time, and looked right up to the market in two eye-catching trials up to 1050m, and also bred to relish rain-hit going.

Dangers: Improving 4. Indiamo was heavily backed on debut at this track three weeks ago when being run down by a handy one. Big watch on resuming 15. Arctic Legend having won the second of two country trials; while 7. Black Tiara second-up off a month-long break; and 10. In Summer, a daughter of multiple Group 1 champion The Autumn Sun; both go into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Monty The Missile to win

Race 3 CLASS 3 HCP (1450m):

Progressive Scone filly 4. One Beat No Beat is unbeaten at this track, and looms as the one to beat fourth-up in her second prep. Started her career with consecutive wins here last spring before spelling, and has returned in tidy order, twice charging home from well back in BM 58 company before again doing her best work late in a much deeper Country C'ship Wildcard qualifier. Yet to start on heavy, but soft track form is smart, and she looks well treated at the weights after a 2kg claim.

Dangers: Again they'll be queing up in this going, especially 9. Himorher who is over the odds after sweeping home to beat a handy BM 58 field here three weeks back, and only previous run on heavy ground, she bolted in her maiden at this track. Keep safe 1. Ramones fourth-up with some weight relief; and included in all exotics, both 6. Vis I Do coming off a fast-finishing BM 58 win at Armidale; and 11. Adelsun who hit the line hard fifth-up, and the wetter the better.

How to play it: One Beat No Beat to win

Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m):

Any number of chances in this one, headed by promising and lightly raced filly 6. Bestower who can strike here nice and fresh off a typical quiet provincial trial. Showed plenty in two runs prior, powering home to easily claim her maiden as a hot favourite second time out. By dual Group 1 winner Contributor, and is right at home in the conditions.

Dangers: Plenty of respect for ex-Qld Sebring mare 3. Israelite Bay who hasn't started since late August, but looks ready to roll fresh behind two improving trials for the new Nathan Doyle yard at Newcastle. The market will tell a story with lightly raced four-year-old 4. Goonoo who has had a couple of false starts of late, and while this is his toughest test to date, bred to flourish in heavy ground. Watch the betting too on another Lees-trained filly 5. Lady Soames reloading off a two month break and quiet trial. Include in all exotics 13. Adelinda who has a fair wet track record; while well over the odds too is 14. Successful first-up off two quiet trials.

How to play it: Bestower to win

Race 5 SKELLATAR SPRINT (1000m):

Now for the feature sprint, and there's terrific value around tough four-year-old and short course specialist 10. Iron Hat second-up. Destroyed a BM 66 field here when resuming a few weeks back, and while there's far more depth in this line-up, he drops sharply in weight, is already a heavy track winner, and boasts a 50 percent winning strike rate at this course from six starts.

Dangers: No doubting 11. Perennial is choc full of promise reloading off a five-week break, but is under the odds in this field. Surged home for a dominant BM 64 win two months back before stuck on gamely in deeper CL3 Highway company at Randwick. Dominated a trial here last month, and is the best weighted runner down on the 55kg limit. Keep safe talented 4. Riva Del Sol who found her best to claim a BM 82 fourth-up, and is well over the odds from a low draw; while 1. Cecil Street Lad who finished best to claim a provincial BM 68 last start; 9. Negotiations who has only been beaten once in four starts; and promising 13. Hellcibell third-up; all go into trifecta and first four bets.

How to play it: Iron Hat each way

Race 6 WAYNE HARRIS HCP (1280m):

Talented six-year-old 9. The Dramatist is well placed here second-up over more ground. Did his best work late from last when resuming in that deep BM 82 won by Riva Del Sol a fortnight back, and normally improves big time into the next run. Carried 60.5kg to charge home and win a CL3 Highway over 1400m at Rosehill last spring, so expect him to settle back well off the fence and come with a big surge over the final 350m.

Dangers: Progressive wet tracker 2. Sivanito charged home late, first-up in a provincial BM 72, and carries 2kg less for this slightly deeper test. Will get plenty of cover back in the field from a low draw, and as long as the inside half ground is holding up by this stage of the meeting, he should be powering into the finish; while 17. Imatruestar would need scratchings to get a run, and more likely to go around in the Gold Cup, but draws the fence and drops sharply in weight. Include both 6. Proverbial second-up in preferred heavy going; and 8. Ljungberg who is hard fit; in wider exotics.

How to play it: The Dramatist to win

Race 7 MUSWELLBROOK GOLD CUP (1500m):

Now for the non-claiming feature run at Quality level, and a shot at a place in the Big Dance later in the year. All aboard another runner from the Lees stable sparingly raced 3. Kinloch nearly four weeks between runs. Did his best work late in tougher metro BM 100 company before making up plenty of ground from the back in the Listed National Sprint at Canberra against an on-speed bias. That run tops him off nicely for this, and he has a good strike rate on rain-affected ground.

Dangers: Stablemate and ardent wet tracker 2. Acquitted returns behind a trial win in soft ground, and a solid fresh record. Was dominant in consecutive Listed wins in Brisbane late last year before spelling, and has won an imposing three from four in heavy going. Draws low, but still under the odds in a big middle distance field. Keep very safe at good odds 4. Waihaha Falls second-up off a seven week break, and thrives in heavy going. Watch the betting on 12. Dasho Lennie third-up and having finished less than three lengths from high class Wymark at Rosehill 20 days ago; while progressive 10. Overriding is a knockout chance second-up coming back from Group 3 opposition. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Kinloch to win

Race 8 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m):

We finish over the same sprint trip as we started, and it stacks up nicely for promising and lightly raced Dubbo mare 7. Jet Empress who can go back-to-back second-up, especially with the early market fancy preferred at Gosford on Thursday. Came off a lengthy break to show tactical speed and easily beat a handy Cl1 field here, and while this is tougher, she gets a 1.5kg weight drop and is right at home in the conditions.

Dangers: The market will be a strong indicator with 4. La Boqueria first-up off two open class trials. Has good ability over this trip, but unproven in heavy ground. Big watch on metro-based mare 3. Azayaka back a shade in distance third-up; while 1. Procrastinator deep into his prep; and 6. Giving Delight down in weight second-up; are the best of the rest.

How to play it: Jet Empress to win

BEST BETS:
R3 4. ONE BEAT NO BEAT
R7 3. KINLOCH

BEST VALUE:
R6 9. THE DRAMATIST