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On one hand Think About It hasn’t had the preparation for Saturday’s Doncaster Mile that Joe Pride wanted but on the other the tougher than expected runs could work in his favour on a trying Randwick track.
Since the five-year-old's TAB Everest win in the spring, Joe Pride set his sights on testing his distance limits and set him for the Group 1 $4m The Star Doncaster Mile (1600m).
The two lead up runs, the Canterbury Stakes at 1300m and George Ryder at 1500m, have seen him suffer defeats you'd call rare for a horse that started the prep with 11 wins from 13 starts.
He made a long run from the second half of the field in first-up and was run down by Lady Laguna before working from a wide gate in the Ryder, sitting outside the lead, and was again reeled in.
"They've been tough runs for him and sometimes that's what it takes to win a big race,'' Pride said.
"You don't want to go in there underdone. He's had two tough conditioning runs and given the track conditions, what it looks like it's going to be, he'll have that under his belt.
"The horse is great, I'm very confident the horse goes in to run the best possible version of Think About It for a mile.
"How that plays out, starting the prep we didn't know and unfortunately the lead up runs haven't given us that good an indication.
"They have been good runs, they weren't exactly what I wanted for him. I would have liked cover both runs and have him hitting the line."
Think About It hasn't started longer than $5.50 in his 15 starts and only three times has he been longer than $4 in a market so he's being disrespected in the Doncaster as a $19 chance with TAB on Thursday.
Pride recognises there's been high expectation around the gelding, especially since his Everest win, but is adamant if he does run out a strong mile he can be in the finish.
"When you're expecting horses to win every start you're going to get disappointed a lot,'' he said.
"This horse had a great run going through the grades, won nine in a row, he hasn't had things go his way so far but this is the race I've set him for.
"I'm confident he's going to peak and his ability to run a mile will be seen.
"It's not that I doubt he's going to run it but when you're looking for answers you want the fewest amount of variables in the equation you can get and we have that extra one on Saturday."
Double figure barriers have a surprisingly good record in the Doncaster, winning 12 of the last 20, and Pride wasn't particularly disappointed with Think About It's gate of 15 given it'll come in a few spots if the emergencies don't gain a start.
What's most important to his chance is that cover in the run he hasn't had this autumn.
"If he came from 20 I'd be thinking how are we going to get cover,'' he said.
"I do want him on speed, he couldn't win a Doncaster from well back in the field with 57kg. He's got to be up there somewhere in that first third of the field with a bit of cover."
There are few doubts in Pride's mind about Ceolwulf's ability to run a mile and a half nor his prospects on a wet track so he feels he has a live contender for the Group 1 $2m Australian Derby (2400m).
The colt was runner-up in the Rosehill Guineas behind Riff Rocket and the Warwick Farm trainer is adamant he's right on target.
"He had a light spring, a summer run then conditioning runs to get him ready for this,'' he said.
"I feel like, speaking from a biased point of view, he's had the exact right preparation and he would improve more than some of his opposition.
"He's in it up to his ears. He's probably the one I come here most confident about. He's a very good colt and I don't think the ground will worry him being a Tavistock."
