3 minute read
Liverpool, City and Arsenal picked up midweek wins to keep the premiership race tight. Liverpool has been installed as $2.20 title favourites with bet365* ahead of City at $2.87 and Arsenal at $3.75.
At the other end, the three newly promoted sides are deep in the red to go back to the Championship. Luton looks the best hope of staying up – their clash at home with Bournemouth this weekend is crucial as is the Everton v Burnley encounter at Goodison.
CRYSTAL PALACE v MANCHESTER CITY: Saturday 6 April 10.30pm
POSITIONS: Palace 30pts, 14th. City 67pts, 3rd.
PALACE FORM: Finding it hard to win despite a kind run of fixtures, a victory over Burnley in late February their only success in eight. Just one loss in their last six at home is the positive.
CITY FORM: Remain unbeaten in 2024, most recently despatching an understrength Villa 4-1 at home midweek. Not going as well as the 22/23 version but at this time of year they rarely slip up. The $2.87 on offer for the title looks over the odds for mine.
HISTORY: Palace stunned City with a couple of late goals to share the points at the Etihad in the reverse fixture. Overall, just three wins and four draws in 23 meetings during the Premier League era.
Prediction: Manchester City win ($1.28 with bet365*)
ASTON VILLA v BRENTFORD: Sunday 7 April 1.00am
POSITIONS: Villa 59pts, 4th. Brentford 28pts, 15th.
VILLA FORM: Just one win in their last four although those dropped points were against top-seven opponents. A significant injury list and looming Conference League commitments will make their struggle to hold down the coveted fourth spot difficult.
BRENTFORD FORM: Only two wins this calendar year, the most recent on 10 February, has plunged the Bees into relegation territory. A couple of valuable points against Brighton and Man U this week keeps their head above water.
HISTORY: Villa came from behind to win the reverse fixture during a memorable December for the Villains. This is the tenth meeting at Villa Park between these sides, and Brentford remain winless.
Prediction: Draw ($4.00 with bet365*)
EVERTON v BURNLEY: Sunday 7 April 1.00am
POSITIONS: Everton 26pts, 16th. Burnley 19pts, 19th.
EVERTON FORM: Ironically the Toffees last win came against Burnley way back on 16 December. Sean Dyche's side has collected ten points in that time, four of them due to an appeal against the penalty imposed for a breach of FFP rules. Only four goals in open play in the last six games is problematic; they need Calvert-Lewin to find his range.
BURNLEY FORM: Until 10 March the Clarets hadn't gone two games in a row without losing – now they are on a run of four. The effort last weekend to come from behind twice at Chelsea with ten men to salvage a draw was the season highlight.
HISTORY: A mixed bag in the EPL era, with Everton winning nine, Burnley seven, and a solitary draw.
Prediction: Draw ($4.00 with bet365*)
FULHAM v NEWCASTLE: Sunday 7 April 1.00am
POSITIONS: Fulham 39pts, 13th. Newcastle 44pts, 8th.
FULHAM FORM: Consistently inconsistent. After belting Spurs three games back the Cottagers have conceded six goals against strugglers Sheffield Utd and Forest and picked up just a point. At home it is a better story, with wins over Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, and Spurs at the Cottage since New Year's Eve.
NEWCASTLE FORM: A couple of dubious penalties triggered a late comeback at home last weekend against West Ham in one of the better games of the season, save for the awful officiating. They couldn't build on an early lead against battling Everton midweek and succumbed late, ironically from the spot.
HISTORY: It has been slim pickings of late for Fulham who have lost five on the trot to the Magpies in all competitions.
Prediction: Fulham win ($2.37 with bet365*)
LUTON v BOURNEMOUTH: Sunday 7 April 10am
POSITIONS: Luton 22pts, 18th. Bournemouth 41pts, 11th.
LUTON FORM: The winless run hit double-figures when outclassed 2-0 by Arsenal at the Emirates midweek. It also ended a run of 18 games in which the Hatters have scored – they need to keep some clean sheets if the unlikely survival battle is to be a success.
BOURNEMOUTH FORM: Back in the groove after a rough start to 2024, with four wins and a draw from the last five games. The Cherries have been very effective against sides below them in the table but really struggle against the better sides.
HISTORY: The first clash was cut short when Luton captain Tom Lockyer collapsed on the pitch. The re-scheduled fixture on 13 March was a disaster and potentially season-defining for Luton, who led 3-0 at the break only to concede four unanswered in the second half.
Prediction: Draw ($3.80 with bet365*)
WOLVES v WEST HAM: Sunday 7 April 1.00am
POSITIONS: Wolves 42pts, 11th. West Ham 45pts, 7th.
WOLVES FORM: Consistency is the problem – Wolves have only followed a win with another win three times this season. At Molineux they are a little more reliable, losing there just twice in the past 12 games. Neto, Hee-Chan Hwang, and Dawson are three vital players all on the injured list which is making progress difficult at present.
WEST HAM FORM: Now without a win in four but going okay. A 3-1 lead after 76 minutes should have been protected at Newcastle last weekend, a ridiculous penalty decision triggering a late collapse. On tired legs the Hammers matched Spurs midweek; curiously Moyes made no subs despite the obvious fatigue. With a massive Europa League quarter final tie with the invincible Leverkusen coming up he is now wishing there was more activity in the January window.
HISTORY: Wolves have won four of the last five meetings in the midlands – home ground advantage has been a major factor in matches between these clubs of late.
Prediction: Wolves win ($2.50 with bet365*)
BRIGHTON v ARSENAL: Sunday 7 April 2.30am
POSITIONS: Brighton 43pts, 9th. Arsenal 68pts, 2nd.
BRIGHTON FORM: Struggling for momentum this season – the absence of March and Mitoma cannot be underestimated. Welbeck's early strike last weekend in a 2-1 loss at Anfield, and an own goal, are the only two for the Seagulls in four games. Interestingly, the home form is standing up with a loss to West Ham in August their only failure on the south coast this season.
ARSENAL FORM: Along with City the only undefeated side of calendar year 2024. Fielded a makeshift run-on 11 but were still too good for Luton midweek. Parked the bus and happily took a point at the Etihad last weekend – keeping City scoreless at home is no mean feat.
HISTORY: Brighton has a decent record in this fixture since promotion in 17/18. Played 13, won five, lost five, three drawn.
Prediction: Draw ($4.33 with bet365*)
MANCHESTER UTD v LIVERPOOL: Monday 8 April 12.30am
POSITIONS: Man Utd 48pts, 6th. Liverpool 70pts, 1st.
MAN UTD FORM: Created an unenviable slice of history on Thursday evening when they became the first side in history to concede twice after the 100th minute at Chelsea, losing 4-3. At Brentford last Saturday they were woeful yet almost pulled off an unlikely win only to be denied, again in the dying moments. Just two clean sheets since their 0-0 against Liverpool at Anfield in December is not good enough.
LIVERPOOL FORM: Leading but making heavy weather of things for fans. Came from behind to beat Brighton last weekend then only shook off Sheffield Utd in the final 15 minutes in the Thursday night match. Away form this season against top-six opposition is not flash – lost to Spurs and Arsenal, drew with City.
HISTORY: Aside from a surprise 4-3 win in the FA Cup tie at Old Trafford recently, Liverpool has handed the Red Devils some almighty hidings of late; in the League, wins of 7-0, 4-0, 5-0, and 4-2 since 2021.
Prediction: Liverpool win ($1.65 with bet365*)
SHEFFIELD UTD v CHELSEA: Monday 8 April 2.30am
POSITIONS: Sheffield Utd 15pts, 20th. Chelsea 43pts, 10th.
SHEFFIELD UTD FORM: Brave in defeat at Anfield on Thursday evening, a wonderful strike by Mac Allister in the 76th minute breaking the deadlock. Although mathematically still alive, the reality is that they will not pick up the 18 or so points required in the next eight games to survive.
CHELSEA FORM: Scoring goals isn't a problem, thanks largely of late to Cole Palmer. The Blues have scored in each of their last 13 matches and have not lost since 4 February. The greatest escape in Premier League history was pulled off at the Bridge on Thursday evening when Palmer scored twice after the 100the minute had ticked over.
HISTORY: Chelsea has won the last four meetings in all competitions by an aggregate of 10-2.
Prediction: Chelsea win ($1.40 with bet365*)
TOTTENHAM v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Monday 8 April 3.00am
POSITIONS: Spurs 57pts, 5th. Forest 25pts, 17th.
SPURS FORM: Found West Ham hard to break down in their 1-1 draw at the London Stadium midweek, that result coming after Luton gave them a big fright at home last weekend. At home, Spurs have won six of seven this calendar year and desperately need to add to that tally in this one – they face Newcastle, Arsenal and Liverpool next.
FOREST FORM: Scrapping well since the FFP penalty was imposed, picking up five vital points in the past three games. Flew out of the traps at home to Fulham on Tuesday evening in their best half of football for the season. Away form continues to be a problem, winning just one of the last 12.
HISTORY: Since Forest's return to the EPL Spurs has won 3/3, including a 2-0 win at the City Ground in December.
Prediction: Tottenham win ($1.40 with bet365*)
SUGGESTED WAGERS:
All-up Man City to win, Tottenham to win at $1.79* with bet365.
Luton v Bournemouth over three goals at $2.20* with bet365.
*Odds correct at 9.45am 5 April 2024.
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