3 minute read

Track Soft 5 and rail true

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (900m):

On a track continuing to dry out, progressive filly 2.I'm Independent resumes with key gear changes. Starts this campaign with the blinkers off, and gets first use of the inside ground.

Dangers: Improving and sparingly race filly 9. Literacy is a clear threat second-up back on much firmer ground; while 6. Annyanme at her fourth start, is the best of the rest.

How to play it: I'm Independent to win

Race 2 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

The maiden boys now, and lightly raced 1. Big Wandji is well placed, resuming for a second prep, also with crucial gear changes. Mixed his form in three runs early last spring, but showed in a strong open class country trial, he can park further forward fresh and finish hard over the final 300m. Trial jockey sticks for the real thing, and he should get enough speed up front here to produce a superior late burst.

Dangers: Naturally, big watch on 6. Cheap Gas who returns off a 10 week break and easy trial from an ideal trailing draw. Expect three-year-old 8. Goodbye Stranger to improve at his second start after being well specked at a big price on debut; while provincial-based two-year-old 12. Fast Blue heads the rest.

How to play it: Big Wandji to win

Race 3 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

The girls' edition shapes ideally for provincial-based filly 10. Hot Jive resuming from a handy trailing draw. Twice beaten narrowly in four runs last prep, including a neck defeat in a stronger Super Maiden at Gosford when she was backed from $2.30 into a $1.90 favourite. That reads well for this, and has been fitted with an easy metro trial. Should park a couple of lengths back with cover, and be given her head from the 350m. The one to beat

Dangers: Big watch on ex-Victorian filly 12. Tokyo Star who resumes for the new and rival Hawkesbury stable. Hasn't raced since early last October, but looked to have plenty to offer getting through the line in a trial last month, and reportedly has been working well. Watch the betting on 2. Jackets, a seven-year-old by Tickets, having her first start behind two improving trials; while at much bigger odds 6. Polens can run into minor money.

How to play it: Hot Jive to win

Race 4 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1700m):

Terrific value here around improving provincial-based mare 8. Sanbano who can go back-to-back fourth-up. Was only collared in the last few strides when leading over a mile at Newcastle before rubber-stamping that progression with a dominant win against the older maidens at that same track. Up 2kg for this, but draws to get another economical run from the fence draw, and with the early hot favourite drawn wider and under the odds, she looms as one of the better value bets all day

Dangers: That early short-priced fancy, talented 3. Tokyo Run drops a long way back in class from a Group 2 at Rosehill. Country and provincial form prior was more than enough to win this, but a wide draw on a much tighter turning track suggests wouldn't be diving into too short a price. Over the odds is dominant last start maiden winner 4. I'm Scarlett who will roll forward; while 6. Laisvas is hard fit and comes off an impressive maiden win over the mile.

How to play it: Sanbano each way

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (900m):

This short course affair stacks up nicely for 1. Royal Bombadier peaking fourth-up, and back on drier ground, with winkers added. Was dominant winning a provincial maiden fresh before two close-up efforts in deeper races again at the provincials. Given his strong tactical speed back at country level, the little drop back 100m in trip is just the ticket, with a stronger rider taking over. From the same stable as the on top selection in race two.

Dangers: Improving 3. Sparkingly finished well over the same trip at Muswellbrook, and should be right at his peak fourth-up. Include both stablemate to the former 4. She's A Bad Girl also fourth-up; and 9. Sepearl back a shade in trip third-up; in exacta and trifecta plays.

How to play it: Royal Bombadier to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (2400m):

Not often they go over this distance for this grade of galloper, but it shapes well for tough mare 6. Avalicious who has placed in three of her last four; and significantly is on a quick back-up going up sharply in trip. Led for a long way in this grade at Coonamble before being swamped late behind a smart one. Then given 3 weeks between runs and stuck on strong from the front until succumbing to high class Warialda Warrior at Dubbo. Gets a nice 3.5kg drop to the limit weight on a smaller track going back up to this level, and couldn't be any fitter to run out her first crack at 2400m

Dangers: Plenty of them starting with the stablemate 5. Karaoke King who is also on the same five day back-up from that Dubbo meeting where he swept home from just off the speed to easily win a weaker class. Big watch too on 3. Eva's Deel who will relish the longer trip and getting back on firmer ground after failing to beat a runner home on a heavy track last start. Honest 4. Blue Guitar is in the each-way mix from a softer trailing draw; while 1. Weave That Web charged home to win a similar graded race third-up, but asked to carry 60kg here from a tougher draw.

How to play it: Avalicious to win

Race 7 CLASS 2 & ABOVE BENCHMARK 50 HCP (1000m):

In a very open race, good value around 5. Benyatta who gets in reasonably well at the weights after the jockey's claim. Was just fair to the line in four straight runs across stronger BM 58 company before freshening up and running into a place in a slightly weaker field 13 days ago. Given she carries the same weight now back at this level, only needs to slot in for some cover a few lengths off the speed before unleashing over the final 300m. Her 20 percent career strike rate from 32 starts is superior to any of these, and she will come in a few spots in the draw with six emergencies in play.

Dangers: Consistent 7. Sauce Dragon is a serious threat drawn to get a cosy run right behind the speed. Keep safe too improving mare 10. Simply Better fitter now second-up off a six week break. Similarly, 9. Luckyimwithaimee has been freshened after easily winning a weaker class two starts back, and then wasn't far away in a deeper grade next run. Despite a wide draw, 8. Boorowa Girl has enough ability to figure after charging home to win in a tougher grade 19 days ago. Include both 2. Billy Bent Ear and 13. Injada if he gets a run in wider exotics.

How to play it: Benyatta each way

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m):

Confident Warwick Farm-based 2. Packer can strike in the closer coming back in grade & distance fourth-up. Swept home to win a country BM 58 fresh before again running home to finish just behind the placegetters in similar company. Then stepped up to a deeper BM 65 at Canberra where he only ground to the line from further back, but he did some work early there, and the form out of that race is strong.

Dangers: Big watch at good odds on 10. Imperioness who improves sharply down in weight second-up. Also in the mix is 3. Pyromania who is looking now for more ground; while both 5. All Too Sneaky third-up on a seven day turnaround; and 1. Vital Verse deep into the prep; can add plenty of value into trifecta and first four returns.

How to play it: Packer to win

BEST BETS:
R3 10. HOT JIVE
R5 1. ROYAL BOMBADIER

BEST VALUE:
R8 2. PACKER