3 minute read
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) on Day 2 of The Star Championships at Royal Randwick.
1.Mr Brightside (Ben, Will & Jd Hayes): It was unusual to see him miss a placing in the Australian Cup given he's a regular in the top two but perhaps it's wise to be a bit forgiving as he'll face a different set up. He drew one there and may have been forced into being the chaser when Pride Of Jenni opened up her midrace lead, and perhaps a good 3 was a bit on the firm side for him. He won't have to worry about a hard track this time around and from gate 10 it'll likely be left to something else to be the cart horse. We know he loves Randwick and a narrow Cox Plate defeat says 2000m is no issue. He's good enough and probably over the odds if the race pans out for him.
2. Cascadian (James Cummings): It's surprising to note this Godolphin warhorse has never run in a Queen Elizabeth and his first appearance could very well be his swansong. He's won a Doncaster and an All Aged, a Craven Plate and a number of other races at Randwick. It's hard to punch holes in him given he improved with each run right up to that Australian Cup win and if he can hold that form now he know he'll be finishing hard, appreciating a strong tempo again. He's sure to have his fans and rightly so, he's a definite chance.
3. Buckaroo (Chris Waller): Must admit he was a bit disappointing in the Tancred, perhaps he settled a bit too far back or perhaps he's not a 2400m horse. Has he promised more than he's delivered? It's dangerous making that assumption just yet but he has to go on notice. He's got a job to do to turn the tables on the Ranvet winner but that race was slowly run and this one won't be so there's a case to say he'll be better suited. Can't have him in the four but wouldn't shock if he's in the placings.
4. Lindermann (Chris Waller): The Doncaster just doesn't seem to be his race, he's gone there twice off impressive wins at 2000m and drawn the car park and not been a factor. Everything went right for him in the Sky High and he couldn't have won any easier beating Kalapour who went on to win the Tancred. Is that the right form for a Queen Elizabeth? Imagine he goes forward to a degree which is his pattern and it'll be a matter of if he can withstand the pressure.
5. Kovalica (Chris Waller): Finally gets to 2000m or beyond for the first time since he won the Queensland Derby as a three-year-old last year and lands in a high pressure race. That could potentially suit him. Backs up after finishing midfield in the Doncaster last week and in that race he hardly attacked the line like a potential Group 1 winner next start. The market says he's going to find this no easier and with one placing in his last seven starts it's difficult not to agree.
6. Zeyrek (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Ran seventh in this race last year as a $31 chance and the 2024 edition is just as strong. His last two wins have been the Neville Sellwood last year and the Craven Plate in the spring and that's about his level. Couldn't get past Serpentine at Rosehill two weeks ago and while the blinkers go on he's hard to make a case to win this race.
7. Pride Of Jenni (Ciaron Maher): Adopted her trademark free running tactics with great effect to win the All Star Mile in a canter and almost got away with the Australian Cup at just her second go at 2000m. We know she'll be leading this field and likely opening up a five or six length margin in the middle stages and with that run under her belt at the trip she might be a bit tougher to run down. You'll have a fair idea up the rise whether she's broken their hearts or not and that promises to provide some pretty good theatre. One thing's for sure, you're going to get a big sight.
8. Via Sistina (Chris Waller): She arrived in Australia with some decent raps on her and fair to say she ran right up to them as she cruised away with the Ranvet off a slow tempo. If there's any improvement in her off that run, and all indications are there has been, then she's looming fairly large over this race. She's tackled some tough 2000m races overseas and a bit more give in the ground seems to be in her favour. She has to be the horse to beat.
9. Atishu (SCRATCHED).
10. Place Du Carrousel (Anthony & Sam Freedman): It's going to be fascinating to see whether this Yulong mare can turn the tables on the more favoured one coming out of their one-two finish in the Ranvet. She loomed as a potential winner early in the straight but unfortunately for her dragged Via Sistina into it and she went straight on by. She has a great overall record from France and if she's still sharp enough and not looking for further she could easily find herself in the finish again.
11. Ceolwulf (Joe Pride): Adds a three-year-old element as he backs up from the Australian Derby where a ripping James McDonald ride on the winner was the difference. He's clearly a promising colt and this race can be kind to up and coming three-year-olds so it's going to be interesting to see how he fits in. On face value he's won just one race so far and meets some very hard heads not to mention the international competition. But he doesn't run bad races. Inclined to say winning is beyond him but am wary.
SPEED MAP: One of the more straightforward speed maps you'd think with Pride Of Jenni rolling to the front and edging out a few lengths clear. Lindermann is a natural on pacer and it'll be interesting to see if he tries to keep her honest. Zeyrek is another who will land somewhere in the first four. Where Via Sistina and Mr Brightside get to is up for debate. Imagine Via Sistina is around midfield and Mr Brightside could use Lindermann to get across into a somewhat forward spot. Everyone's expecting a true 2000m test.
SELECTIONS:
8 VIA SISTINA
2 Cascadian
1 Mr Brightside
7 Pride Of Jenni
