3 minute read
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $2 million Schweppes Sydney Cup (3200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
1. Military Mission (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): It's clear leading isn't his go based on his last couple but to be fair they've been in Group 1 weight-for-age races in small fields. He's been seen at his best from off the pace winning races like the Newcastle Cup and the Sandown Classic last spring so suspecting he'll be a little more conservatively ridden with a couple of natural front-running stablemates engaged. Ran tenth in the Melbourne Cup at his only two mile attempt. If Hippo can find a position on him he's not without a show.
2. Mahrajaan (Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray): Always beware the Kiwi stayer and he brings a form line into this race that will be talked about a bit having beaten Mark Twain into third place in the Auckland Cup a month ago. That was his second win at 3200m so that's not an issue at all for him and he seems a rare Kiwi horse that goes a bit better on firmer ground. Not sure where he gets to from near the outside gate and while he's a proven stayer he's a place chance.
3. Ashrun (Ciaron Maher): Relished a strong tempo to win the Pakenham Cup second-up and you'd have to say he wasn't overly suited at weight-for-age in the Tancred so he ran well to finish third. So he's a bit better off at the weights carrying only 4kg more than he did when running fourth in the Melbourne Cup. He's been racing well all season and his Flemington run suggests two miles is no worries. Looks one of the main chances.
4. Loft (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Showed a glimmer as he worked home into a midfield position at the finish in the Chairman's last week in his best performance in four runs since a tendon injury. That said, not sure an extra 600m is enough as he didn't exactly pull ground off the winner and meets that horse 2kg worse.
5. Stockman (Joe Pride): Thought he'd be a bit more effective in the Chairman's last week on a heavy track that wasn't as heavy as everyone expected. He was hard in the market and was one of the first under pressure at the business end, he rallied for a while but he's had three goes at two miles now and missed a place each time. Down 3.5kg so that'll help and he could give some kind of cheek but it's a take on trust situation.
6. Selino (Chris Waller): Winner of this race three years ago then missed a place in his next 10 starts before winning the Brisbane Cup last June. His three runs since then have again seen him out of the placings and he went around at $31 in the Roy Higgins and was beaten seven lengths. He is a genuine stayer so has that in his corner but it'd be some kind of form reversal if he wins his second Sydney Cup.
7. Kalapour (Kris Lees): You could probably put his Melbourne Cup failure down to the quick back up after winning his way in there three days prior so won't mark him down on that from a distance perspective. Surprise winner of the Tancred at weight-for-age and drops a handy 5kg into this race where he's drawn ideally. When he's in form he tends to hold it for a while so with an economical run likely he's to be respected.
8. Serpentine (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Big query runner at the two miles given he's been there three times and missed a place in each, plus tackled a 4014m Ascot Gold Cup and was well beaten. But he's had a different preparation with two wins at 2000m and they've been fighting wins too as he's staved off challengers. Doesn't get a heap of weight relief up 2.5kg from his Melbourne Cup run but from a soft draw he'll be right up there and if left alone he might give a kick.
9. Amade (Philip Stokes): Amazing performance to run fourth in the Adelaide Cup last month after Zac Spain lost the irons going out of the straight the first time. He loomed up on the home turn and momentarily looked a chance but still brave to box on. He's a 10-year-old who is racing in good form, his last win was the Geelong Cup, and he's a three time winner at the two miles plus won at 3400m. Suspect he'll beat more home than beat him and has each-way claims.
10. Athabascan (John O'Shea): There's a sense of timing about this import who caught the eye running into fourth in the Tancred when not suited at weight-for-age. He drops 7kg on that and has Doncaster winner Tyler Schiller riding in great form on his back. He was beaten a whisker by Kalapour in the spring at 2500m so there's not a whole lot between that pair with a 1kg advantage in Athabascan's favour on last start. A drying track helps his cause and he's a good chance.
11. Manzoice (Chris Waller): Out of the winner's stall since he took out the Victoria Derby in 2022 and went unplaced in his next nine runs until he ran into second in the Manion Cup behind Post Impressionist. Gets his chance to consolidate on that with just 51.5kg and any improvement in the track condition will help his cause. He's never started in single figures in his career, $10 the shortest price. Scratched from last week with the heavy track and that could be a plus but you still take him on trust.
12. Circle Of Fire (Ciaron Maher): Import who found his way into the field with an impressive win in the Chairman's on that heavy track last week. It's been 10 years since a Chairman's winner backed up to win the Cup so that's his task. Drops in weight by 1.5kg and has a fly-in jockey who has a wide gate to negotiate with one warm up ride earlier in the day. He's an untapped stayer and Ciaron Maher has won two of the last four Sydney Cups. May be favourite by default but not prepared to risk him too much.
13. Glentaneous (Anthony & Sam Freedman): There was a bit expected of him in the Roy Higgins as he was a solid favourite but looked a bit one paced finishing sixth behind Mark Twain. He seemed to appreciate a strongly run Pakenham Cup before that and he was too good for Amade in the Bagot back on New Year's Day. So he's a handy enough stayer who gets in with a nice light weight, Jamie Kah to ride and a soft barriers. Wouldn't shock if he's thereabouts.
14. Major Beel (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Last year's Australian Derby winner and he's had quite the unorthodox preparation for a Sydney Cup. After a promising second-up run in the spring he didn't show a whole lot and this time around he had four barrier trials, including three over hurdles, before resuming in the Pakenham Cup at 2500m. He went way too hard in front there and weakened but he showed some improvement in the Roy Higgins, leading until inside the 200m and just missing a place. Imagine he's the likely leader here, he's down 7kg on last time and it'll be interesting to see if he can fire.
15. Mostly Cloudy (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young): Fresh horse on the scene tackling this third-up and has been placed in both runs including the Roy Higgins. Is a winner at 3318m but that was in July 2022 at Doncaster. Two runs in Sydney were a third behind Fawkner Park and Naval College and a sixth in the City Tattersalls Cup behind Athabascan and Serpentine. That says he's probably a rung below what's needed.
16. Torrens (Marc Chevalier): Very much a hit and miss stayer who tends to run his best races from somewhere in or near the lead. Led until the final few strides when run down in the Australia Day Cup three runs back but didn't fire in the Manion Cup. There have been longshots place in this race but he will need to be on his game.
17. So Dazzling (John Sargent): Finished off okay in the Chairman's last week in something of a return to form, getting past Stockman late to run fourth. Her best form is on wet tracks and she has a few lengths to make up on Circle Of Fire from a week ago. Only won one from 17 so she'll need some breaks.
SPEED MAP: The Waterhouse/Bott stable has control of the pace on paper with Major Beel and Serpentine, thinking the former leads and latter takes a sit given he's up from 2000m. Mahrajaan has a decision from a wide gate, expecting Military Mission to go back or at least look to slot in midfield. Options for the likes of Torrens, Kalapour and Stockman to be handy.
SELECTIONS:
3 ASHRUN
10 Athabascan
7 Kalapour
1 Military Mission
