3 minute read
Track Heavy 9 and rail out 3m from 1000m to 300m into a cut/away & True the remainder:
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):
The spate of very wet tracks and tough reads continue as we kick off with the maidens over a middle distance. Ultra honest five-year-old 6. Deific gets his chance to finally break through at 27th start, and deep into the current prep. Has placed in four of his last five runs, the latest even to the line here two starts back in a deeper race before again running home okay from a similar position at Quirindi. New rider goes on, and dropping 4kg, this is the lightest weight he's carried in a long time. Relishes rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Hard fit 3. The Favourite Son is fifth-up off a five week freshen, and also bursting to break through. Finished well to beat all bar the winner on a very shifty track at Gunnedah, and the seven day back-up is a signal he's worked well since. Keep safe 9. Oojah Kapow who can peak second-up on a significant weight drop; while 10. Sunset Panorama gets the blinkers back on carrying a postage stamp weight fourth-up after a fair closing effort last time when hard in the market. Big gap to the rest headed by 7. I Am Dutch coming through the same formline as the former.
Race 2 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):
Improving 7. In My Dreams is well placed to break through here over the right sprint trip third-up against his own age. Edged out narrowly in heavy ground when resuming before only holding his spot in a deeper provincial maiden 16 days ago. Getting some weight relief, with blinkers going on, and back on wet ground are all keys.
Dangers: Naturally, provincial filly 4. Bambi Belle is a threat second-up off a break as long as the inside going is okay. Could only run into a place when heavily backed over the Wagga carnival, but bred to be more effective on wet tracks. The market will tell a story with debutant gelding 3. Wicked Testimony who stretched out to win the second of two trials, and is by prolific Group 1-winning wet track sire Press Statement. A market watch too on 2. Hedged Your Bets by Headwater resuming for a second prep with gear changes behind a steady trial. Another first starter 1. Coppabella Road by renowned wet track producer Zoustar has also trialled smartly; while at bigger odds, must respect 5. Bent As Hell who ran home okay two starts back in a handy maiden before disappointing at Quirindi, but likes the wet and drawn to get cover.
Race 3 STAYERS CUP BENCHMARK 74 HCP (2300m):
Prepared to stick with emerging 3. Kingdom Of Logres despite a very poor performance at Goulburn when easily beaten as the hottest of odds-on favourites. Previous win at Hawkesbury was impressive, and with the regular jockey back on over more ground, and returning to much preferred rain-affected going, he's better placed to get back in punters' good books.
Dangers: Improving 7. Flying Deel looks the immediate threat down in weight fourth-up, with a stronger rider going on. Over the odds is 5. Aiseirigh who will relish a longer trip and dropping back from tougher metropolitan grade fourth-up in his first prep here since transferring from Hong Kong last year. Both 2. Natural Mystic third-up; and 6. Torowoto back in grade; are both capable of running into the minor money.
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m):
Wide open with many chances, but like the first-up placement here for imported ex French-based mare 8. Junebug now in the Annabel Neasham stable. Hasn't started since a couple of tidy European efforts late last year, and has trialled strongly, winning the latest over 1200m in soft ground, and bred to thrive in the wet.
Dangers: Plenty of them, and monitor the betting closely around first starter 3. Machaon by 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist who is a stablemate of the top selection, and has trialled progressively. Lightly raced 2. Goodnight Barlow ran home well on debut at Moruya after dominating a metro trial on Soft 7. Expect further improvement from lightly raced filly 5. Allegro Miss; while 6. Gigi Fille resumes with a gear change behind two improving trials; and debutant 13. Safe Place by Group 1 winner Castelvecchio starts behind two handy trials for the Freedman stable.
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):
Lightly raced mare 10. Royal Radiance resumes in an ideal sprint on the limit weight. Won first-up last prep on a soft 7 rating, and is drawn to get to the middle of the track and produce a superior closing surge.
Dangers: Naturally consistent 1. Twilight Rock is right in the mix dropping back to this shorter trip with gear changes fourth-up off a five week break. Has placed 10 times from 15 starts, and only career victory so far came in heavy going. Stablemate to the top selection, 5. My Mate Laney defied a late betting drift to lead all the way on debut at Armidale, but this is deeper; while keeping safe 8. Vandelight who relished very heavy ground to easily claim her maiden fourth-up.
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m):
Tough three-year-old 1. Lunartie is ready to claim a second career win fourth-up. Did his best work late in provincial company two starts back before holding his ground in a country BM 58. Reliable weight carrier who is at his best on wet tracks, and better suited on this map where he can get out wider into what will probably be better going and finish strong.
Dangers: Big watch on improving 4. Tartana who was well backed before surging home to win a provincial Midway maiden first-up at this track in heavy ground. Hard to fathom 6. Lease is still searching for only a second win ahead of his 37th start. Has placed in three of four runs this prep against tougher provincial opposition, and looks very well treated at the weights after the jockey's claim. Only concern is the inside going late in the day. Improving filly 8. Choice Witness ran home hard from the back when resuming at Grafton, and is one of several each-way chances; while included in exotic bets 2. Externus with the blinkers back on; and 5. Call Me Terry three weeks after surging home late to win here on debut.
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m):
Same set up and trip for the lower class improvers, and confident 8. Ahoy can claim her second win in three starts this prep. Was heavily backed fresh leading all the way in heavy ground before taking a trail at this track and running home okay behind a smart winner. Stays at the weight in a race with a little less depth, and the wetter the better.
Dangers: They'll be queuing up in this one, starting with 1. Smart Action who finds a suitable return race behind two quiet trials. Country mare 4. The Young Years is over the odds fourth-up getting out over a bit further, and loves the wet. Similar story for 2. Major Makeover who can peak at a similar stage in the prep, although unproven on real heavy ground; while at much bigger odds 3. Just Shane steps up from winning a very weak maiden first.
Race 8 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1280m):
Despite a wide draw and a first-up flop for the new Neasham yard, metro filly 11. Beauty Rising has more than enough ability to win this. Showed penty against deeper opposition in Melbourne last prep, four lengths from the winner in a Listed race before rushing home to miss narrowly in a BM 64 at Flemington, then spelling. Ridden too close when dropping out in BM 68 company on the Kensington track, but 18 days between runs she can return to her best here ridden quieter. Unproven in heavy gong, but is bred to handle it.
Dangers: Tough as they come, 4. Reggie's Boy hasn't finished further back than fourth all prep, including a fighting heavy track win here two starts ago, but shapes under the odds from a low draw. Conversely, well over the odds is 2. Olivia's Spirit who finished hard to win a provincial BM 64 two starts back, and has a 33 percent winning strike rate from 12 starts. Included in trifecta and first four bets, 3. Deel Street back in grade; 6. Sting Jet off a 52-day freshening; and 8. Rebel's Edge second-up with a jockey change.
Race 9 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m):
Competitive sprint to finish, and it stacks up well on the map for underrated 8. Super Freds deep into the prep. Has attacked the line impressively from well back in his last two, gets a key new jockey, and is drawn to settle back with cover behind a strong speed.
Dangers: Big watch on 6. Aquarter who hasn't started since Xmas Eve and no official trials, but comes to hand quickly and likes wet ground. Keep safe 9. Courageous Queen fourth-up and relishes this sort of going. Expecting a big second-up run from honest colt 1. Mr Trackside; while 10. Gerety resuming behind two trials is the best of the rest.
