3 minute read
The grand horse Zipping is honoured with his Classic this weekend at Caulfield and the feature makes for a good betting event.
A slight change to both the calendar and the scenery have not had a negative impact on the Zipping which, going into the race, stand up well against recent ratings averages.
In 2023 the race throws up a clash of established and emerging - something that we haven't really seen in the last few years where it has been a destination for the well established to the point of a bit tired...
We haven't seen a horse younger than five contest the race in the past three years with winners being seven, eight and seven. This year we have a pair of four-year-olds, the home-grown Muramasa and Irish import Duke De Sessa, as well as the low-mileage and quickly improving Shock Em Ova.
This isn't to downplay the grand old stayers like last year's winner Vow And Declare who goes again off another wonderful spring, and as a perennial Cups player he plays the Zipping role beautifully in his race, but the record of the emerging shows that they have a key part to play against the established.
Four-year-olds have made up just 14% of Zipping Classic fields in the past decade but have won 40% of the races - nearly three times their share.
Throw in Taj Mahal as a three-year-old winner in 2017 (one of just two three-year-olds to run in the this timespan) and we see that fresh legs have proven a big asset.
Muramasa had the zip to slam the door on Duke De Sessa at Flemington. DDS still appeals as one with more to offer in Australia, he has been ambitiously campaigned and has shaped well in better races, but he was outpointed convincingly enough at Flemington that the lean, with prices much the same in early markets, has to be with the last-start winner Muramasa.
Weak Tipster Caveat (WTC): With a touch better than $4.50 being bet about both you can back the pair at better than $2.25.
The theme of established versus emerging runs through the card and has run through the past couple of weeks of racing in Victoria.
Maiden winners have been toppling carnival form at a fairly good clip and the Twilight Glow, which goes as race four, is a good example of that.
Miraval Rose comes up as a short priced early favourite after being beaten by the finest of margins in a Group Three two weeks back. She was off a Kyneton maiden and was beaten by a $51 shot off a Yarra Valley maiden with a handful of springtime stakes performers trailing them in.
Extremely Rowdy is second elect having knocked off a Cup Week winner among others off a Pakenham maiden last week.
Both are clearly useful but they look beatable and Flying Fizz appeals as one potentially well equipped for the task.
Her platform is no more humble than those recently spiked off by those at the top of the betting and she remains completely unexposed after winning a pair of slow races where she showed a nice change of speed to winning going away.
She hasn't got form at this level, she runs for the emerging, but the emerging are holding their own against the established at the moment and she can follow that trend without surprising.
As a parting note; our good friends at 365 have priced up Mick Dee riding one or more winners around Caulfield this weekend and put some mustard on it with the price on offer $2.50.
For the sake of interest, early prices say that he is expected to ride around 1.28 winners. That includes the overround which we can loosely remove by rounding down to one. We can make that one the mean around which to model this out and the maths arrives at fair odds for one or more Mick Dee winners being loosely equal to $1.58. So $2.50, for whatever you can get set, is playing on good terms. Enjoy!
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #10 Muramasa @ $4.60 with bet365*
Each Way Play: Race 4 #5 Flying Fizz @ $10.00 with bet365*
*Prices accurate as of 4:00pm AEST 30/11
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