3 minute read

Three Group Ones on the card with the Epsom, Flight and Metropolitan.

Some good racing in Sydney this week but an interesting day of favourites, with plenty of horses looking (dare I say), awfully hard to beat, but not really showing any value. The likes of Think About It, Just Fine, Kibou and Tiz Invincible are all deserving of their place at the head of the market but are in the pointy end.

The Listed Dulcify Stakes (1600m) looks interesting, however. On weights and measures, Tom Kitten looks a moral. It's not that simple of course, but he had a pretty tough run last start, back in the field, three wide, making an early run but doing well to hold down third behind Encap, who since placed in the Golden Rose.

He now gets back to level weights and draws much better so expect he's in the first half of the field. He rated a fair way down last start on what he did first up but given the scenario that's understandable, and he should be able to bounce back here.

I don't think he wants any further than a mile at this stage but he can get away with this. The one who is screaming out for a mile is Cafe Millenium. He's been ticking along beautifully in two runs back, coming home in the third fastest splits over 1300m first up, then charging home into fourth last time in the race fastest everything. I've been on him in the Spring Champion all along and I think he could be into equal favourite after Saturday.

He does meet Tom Kitten 4.5kg worse at the weights but Randwick will suit so much more, and he gets a huge jockey switch from Sherry to Shinn. He's going to be back near last again but he's got a serious motor and will be flying late. Happy to back them both.

For the value play I'm going to again back two horses (it's one of those days) in the Group 1 Flight Stakes.

No doubt Tiz Invincible is the horse to beat, the win in the Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes (1400m) was quite soft in the end, but she's drawn very wide here which has made it interesting, and she hasn't exactly given the impression she wants all of 1600m.

French Endeavour and Tutta La Vita do give that impression. Both were taken back from wide draws in the Tea Rose and hit the line in best last 200m splits of the race from impossible positions. They now both draw inside with the option to sit much closer and I think there's a case to be made of them turning the tables at double figure quotes.
 

SYDNEY SPECIALS

Bet of the day: Race 5 #1 Tom Kitten @ $2.30 & #4 Cafe Millenium @ $8

Value plays: Race 6 #5 French Endeavour @ $15 & #10 Tutta La Vita @ $12