3 minute read
Scott Embry provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Bunbury on Saturday, 9th March 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
RACE 1
THIS'LL SHOW YA has had to breeze at every run in her career to date from barriers 7/9, 10/10 and 11/12. This is the first opportunity in her life to find the fence and either hold out the speedy Blue Rocket / Mean Machine or take a sit leader's back. She'll do far less work in the run and with a 2kg weight swing on Blue Rocket think she's a chance of turning the tables. BLUE ROCKET stopped the clock 4L faster than 2 year old average on debut. Will need to burn early but looks capable of doing it at both ends. MEAN MACHINE has only had 2x 400m jump outs this campaign but they've got people talking. Broke 24 seconds recently and was 13L clear of his two rivals. Big watch. DESERT WAVES next best.
Numbers: 7 – 1 – 6 – 5
Suggested Bet – THIS'LL SHOW YA WIN
RACE 2
TYCOON HARRY concedes some massive negative weight swings to key rivals (2kg to Insyde Success for being beaten on debut, 5kg to If I Din Havadime from their 10 Feb clash at Bunbury and a whopping 6kg to Salt Lake Shake for a nose margin at Belmont on 24 Jan). However, you must take into account that he's improving with racing and he's now got the versatility to take a sit which gives Brayden Gaerth options. SALT LAKE SHAKE meets him 6kg better for being beaten a nose at Belmont first-up after crossing him. He's a jump and run animal and Bunbury should suit. INSYDE SUCCESS won by over 7L at Albany in a galloping exhibition but is drawn really awkwardly here. CLOSE TALKER showed plenty of speed at Pinjarra.
Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 6
Suggested Bet – TYCOON HARRY WIN
RACE 3
THE GREAT HOYA comes from 1400m back to 1200m, drops 2kg and can either roll to the top or sit outside of Ultimate Command. Either way he's going to be right up over the speed, he's rock hard fit, he's tough and he goes around an eachway quote. Holding form deep into his preparation and looks to have found another winnable race. ULTIMATE COMMAND was beaten a nose first-up by the talented Boots Like Bruce. She's usually better second-up than she is fresh and while Luke Campbell has opted to ride Halatorion she's still in with a winnable weight after the claim of Keshaw Dhurun. HALATORION bounced back to form last start. NO DICE gets a soft run close handy from the draw.
Numbers: 6 – 3 – 1 – 4
Suggested Bet – THE GREAT HOYA EACHWAY
RACE 4 Best Bet
UNCLE GERARD, VAMPI AT PLAY and SUPPORTIVE were in the same race at Pinjarra on 17 February and watching the replay it's hard not to side up with UNCLE GERARD who was no better than three and four deep the trip without any cover at any stage. He gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Vampi At Play, is drawn far better here and gains the services of Chris Parnham. Hasn't had much luck all campaign and is bursting to win a race. Think he'll be popular with punters. SUPPORTIVE is a previous winner off a 6 day back-up and can settle up over the speed. BOOTS LIKE BRUCE likely looks to lead again and he's a tough nut to crack. KEEP ATTACKING can mix his form but the best version of him is good enough to win.
Numbers: 10 – 3 – 1 – 5
Suggested Bet – UNCLE GERARD WIN
RACE 5
NERO KING showed three starts back behind Bonjoy that he doesn't need to be ridden rearwards and is capable of holding a position a little closer in a race devoid of speed. Looks a muddlingly run race behind the likes of Snazzler/Lord Gannicus/Arnray and no doubt that Laqdar Ramoly will be looking to keep Nero King out of trouble so that he can make his move when he wants. Take away his bizarre Ascot run(s) and his overall form is excellent (and consistent). LORD GANNICUS was enormous last start. He parked three deep outside the lead and was still there in the final stride. He seemed to appreciate the addition of blinkers and could be the leader here? SNAZZLER was allowed to roll last start and only knocked up late. FOREVER BOY makes a big step from a maiden into a 60+ Grad.
Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 8
Suggested Bet – NERO KING WIN
RACE 6
TIFF'S LAD has been underestimated recently. Many probably thought his run three back at 100-1 was a fluke but he has proven himself at his last two. Goes around eachway, rides the speed, clearly stays and is racing with great consistency. Hard to knock. MANAVENDRA was powering away from them late in the Esperance Cup last Sunday and on the 6-day back-up he lobs into another 66+ as he starts to make his way impressively through the staying ranks. CAPTAIN PLUTO won well three starts back and has form all around the main fancies in this. ACTING GOD is ready to win and enjoys a soft run along the fence. You could make a case for 6 – 8 of these.
Numbers: 6 – 1 – 3 – 4
Suggested Bet – TIFF'S LAD EACHWAY
RACE 7
MOJO RHYTHM was the 'be on me next start' run and with Jarrad Noske committing to riding him at 55kg it's a clear indication of expectation from both rider and trainer. There's a lot of quality in the three deep moving line and provided they can make some ground at Bunbury on Saturday he has to be one of the main players. MULTINATIONAL brings alternate ratings form, however, he has the right on-speed racing pattern and drops down to the 54kg minimum. Think he measures up. RED FIFTY THREE was skittled (like many) in the Pinjarra Classic just as he was looking to come around heels to make a run at them. Big forgive. SEARCHIN' ROC'S was enormous first-up but it's just hard to see how she enjoys a favourable run from barrier 15/15? She's quality and she's brave but she'll need a big steer.
Numbers: 6 – 12 – 13 – 4
Suggested Bet – MOJO RHYTHM EACHWAY
RACE 8
BLACK FANTASY, QUEEN ALINA, HOLY ENCHANTMENT and CURRIMUNDI are all talented chasers who get big weight pulls on the equal 62kg top weights Marocchino and Casino Seventeen. BLACK FANTASY meets Marocchino 3kg better for being beaten 1.3L in the Detonator Stakes and that should naturally bring him right into contention. Expect he'll look to stalk Marocchino for longer this time around because you just don't want to get into a dog fight with WA's toughest animal at the top of the straight. MAROCCHINO has to carry 62kg but you just can't rule him out. He's too good. CURRIMUNDI is on trial at 2000m but has always looked like he would stay. QUEEN ALINA will keep coming and was sound in the Detonator.
Numbers: 3 – 2 – 7 – 4
Suggested Bet – BLACK FANTASY WIN
Same Race Multi – Marocchino (Top 3) + Black Fantasy (Top 3)
Marocchino and Black Fantasy ran the quinella in the Detonator Stakes at Ascot a fortnight ago over 1800m. They meet again here over 2000m but the biggest difference is that this is a Handicap race and so Black Fantasy gets a 3kg weight swing on Marocchino for a 1.3L defeat last start. They'll likely settle 1 – 2 in running and from there should kick hard into the corner and fight out the finish.
RACE 9
OLY'S CHOICE was the run of the meeting at Pinjarra on 17 Feb and then was again the run of the meeting last Saturday at Ascot. Last two starts he's had no luck, he's had no decent map and he's had horrible barriers. That looks (on paper at least) to change on Saturday. He's 1/1 off the 7 day back-up and provided there's something left in the tank after those two massive efforts he looks to have found a suitable assignment to break through for a deserving win. SISU WARRIOR could nearly cross them from barrier 10 of 10. Don't think it's anywhere near as bad as it first looks in a race devoid of natural speed. Great return. BROOKLYN PIER should get a good run and sectionally wasn't bad in the Ice Pick Nick / Sisu Warrior / Defending race. DEFENDING continues to race well.
Numbers: 6 – 3 – 4 – 8
Suggested Bet – OLY'S CHOICE WIN
Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)1,3,4,6,7,10
2,4,5,6,7,12,13
2,3,4,7
3,6
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