3 minute read
Chris Nelson provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Rosehill on Saturday, 23rd March 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
RACE 1
Just a lazy 5 Group 1's on the card at Rosehill today with the Golden Slipper the feature. The action kicks off with a capacity field Midway, should be near enough to $5 the field. Happy to take each-way odds about the chances of ELETTRICA who is just busting to land one of these. Beaten all bar the winner her last couple running on from a mile back due to wide draws, not the case today & she will carry no more weight after the claim. GARDENZIO rises in grade however rolls forward & drops back 100m, could give a sight. TAVS will be running on.
Numbers: 1 – 9 – 7 – 2
Suggested Bet: ELETTRICA EACH-WAY.
RACE 2
CANBERRA LEGEND was well supported at Randwick a fortnight back however never really looked the winner. Can't say I was overly surprised as his form is all on damp ground, he's had 6 goes on dry going for duck eggs. Big chance we're on soft ground today & if that's the case he's worth an each-way ticket. Definite respect for the international POST IMPRESSIONIST who wasn't too far away in an Ebor two back, stable doesn't bring them here for the weather only! STOCKMAN's last couple have been improved efforts, wetter the better for him.
Numbers: 9 – 4 – 2 – 11
Suggested Bet: CANBERRA LEGEND EACH-WAY (small bet if soft 5 or worse).
RACE 3
Looks a very suitable race for the second up OSMOSE who couldn't have drawn a better gate for Tim Clark. Unable to match Lekvarte first up however didn't shirk her task one bit & will have taken good improvement off the run fitness wise. Parked close up she can make a dash for home in the straight & the closers will have to run her down, not easy. LITTLE MIX comes out of the same last start race, clearly looking for further now gets it this afternoon. Highly doubt CITY OF LIGHTS gains a start being the 6th emergency however should she do so must be included.
Numbers: 5 – 7 – 20 – 6
Suggested Bet: OSMOSE TO WIN.
RACE 4
He looks a very nice type SCHAWARZ & he'll have to be if he's going to win a race of this stature first up. A veteran of only 3 starts he bolted in at short odds on debut before straight to Group 3 company missing a placing courtesy of a bad start. No such dramas at his only other outing going straight to the front & producing plenty to win comfortably at Flemington over Cup week. Trialled well he can make a winning return. BRAVE MEAD the logical danger, dominant at Caulfield before a tardy getaway proved very costly the latest. Good gate with Shinn to ride suggests he's right in this. CORNICHE next best, nothing wrong with the form of the trio of Waterhouse/Bott runners, all will roll forward though & where they end up/how much work they do is the unknown.
Numbers: 6 – 2 – 1 – 8
Suggested Bet: SCHWARTZ TO WIN ($4.00 or better).
RACE 5
First of the Group 1's is the Ranvet & it's made an even more interesting affair by the appearance of the ex-UK mare VIA SISTINA who was purchased for 5.5 million to come to Australia as a racing & breeding prospect. She certainly is the 'real deal' winning & placing at Group 1 level last year, now with Chris Waller should she bring her A game I'd suggest she'll have the measure of our locals; market moves all important though as she hasn't 'officially' trialled having been in quarantine. THINK IT OVER right in it as is another import BUCKAROO who was good in the Apollo & gets Ryan Moore to steer.
Numbers: 6 – 1 – 3 – 7
Suggested Bet: VIA SISTINA TO WIN (if not a significant market drifter).
RACE 6 Best Bet
Interestingly MILITARIZE scratched here in the Guineas with connections electing to take on the next race, the George Ryder where he's coming back in trip, Chris Waller has trained a few more winners than I have so no argument from me! Stablemate RIFF ROCKET now the clear on top selection, he should be right at his peak here third up from a break & the 2000m looks ideal. Strong first up win he closed off well in the Australian Guineas after being cluttered away on the fence. TOM KITTEN has definitely been trained with less dash in his legs this prep, that or he's not going as well. Held up in the Randwick Guineas until near the 200m he found the line just ok, needs the 2000m now. KING COLORADO 2000m? Who knows, he did have excuses the latest though.
Numbers: 2 – 4 – 7 – 5
Suggested Bet: RIFF ROCKET TO WIN
RACE 7
Some widely drawn major fancies who could end up anywhere in the run, THINK ABOUT IT a perfect example. I'm going with ENCAP on an each-way basis, he's never far away & is one who draws well. He's been very close to MILITARIZE at their two outings to date & his Hobartville & Randwick Guineas efforts were good, Blake Shinn to do the steering is a big positive. There's no doubting THINK ABOUT IT's class, he's an Everest & Stradbroke winner, he's been beaten only 3 times in 14 starts, KOVALICA will be zooming home. Chances likely don't end there.
Numbers: 18 – 1 – 16 – 4
Suggested Bet: ENCAP EACH-WAY (small bet).
RACE 8
Cracking Golden Slipper, one of the best we've seen for a while. No shortage of pace, the Waterhouse/Bott runners will make sure of that. So, is it a match between STORM BOY & SWITZERLAND or are there others capable of causing an upset? Probably not, they do look to have the measure of their rivals. So, which one? I'm going to lean to STORM BOY, just feel over 1200m he might be superior, he'll have a start on SWITZERLAND who will no doubt be motoring to the line. Once they get to 1400m & beyond my gut tells me SWITZERLAND will be superior however at the shorter trip maybe not. LADY OF CAMELOT ran a cracker in the Blue Diamond on speed, should there be a knockout it may be her?
Numbers: 1 – 7 – 14 – 6
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 9
Last of the Group 1's is the Galaxy which brings together a terrific field of sprinters. Could go any number of ways, I've ended up with the Queenslander UNCOMMON JAMES who ran 3rd to Imperatriz twice in three starts last prep, keep in mind he ran 2nd in this race last year & unluckily so when unable to gain clear running at a vital stage. Not sure if gate 1 is the best draw after last week however I'll leave that in the extremely capable hands of Damian Lane. PRIVATE EYE is a class act who gave away too much start in the Challenge, wide gate suggests similar here however he'll be rattling home & gets 100m further. AFT CABIN isn't one of mine however no luck first up has to go in. SUNSHINE IN PARIS a BIG market watch, not let down in either trial. I've left out a few good ones such as OZZMOSIS, PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE etc, just can't fit them all in!
Numbers: 4 – 1 – 5 – 11
Suggested Bet: UNCOMMON JAMES EACH-WAY (small bet).
RACE 10
Plenty will be in OLENTIA's corner here & I'm another! She's a very effective fresh mare who was a good thing beaten first up in the Triscay back in mid-February behind Semana who was narrowly beaten by Zougotcha in last week's Group 1 Coolmore. She ticks plenty of boxes in this race & can hopefully send punters home happy. CEST MAGIQUE has similar form lines & must be the logical danger, busting to win a race. Keep the import SOUNDS OF HEAVEN safe, overseas form is strong & trials good enough to suggest she's not hopeless at her local debut.
Numbers: 3 – 4 – 7 – 5
Suggested Bet: OLENTIA TO WIN
Click here for Saturday's TABtouch Rosehill Markets.
Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
