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Chris Nelson provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Eagle Farm on Saturday, 4th May 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
RACE 1
Big day at Eagle Farm as we kick off another Winter Racing Carnival. I'm leaning to the backmarker OSTERMEIER in this opening race who yes, will give away a decent start. All runs this prep have been at 1600m & he has been looking for further which he gets this afternoon, look for him to be sailing down the outside late. I swore off FIFTH POSITION a while back & fair to say he did have every chance last start, can definitely find a placing here though. BASARWA had no luck here latest run, prior form was only average though.
Numbers: 6 – 4 – 10 – 8
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 2
Plenty of early scratchings here. No leader which makes it interesting. I'll lean to MISTERKIPCHOGE who I'm convinced is heading for the Derby however this is certainly not beyond his capabilities along the way. He's an ex-Kiwi in the Waller camp who caught the eye late first up over 1400m, perhaps gate 1 will see him land a little closer in the run? Stablemate KIRIKAN closed off well first up, additional distance also suitable. RISING PACIFIC's chances have been aided by the number of scratchings, helps a little with the draw.
Numbers: 15 – 13 – 3 – 6
Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.
RACE 3 Best Bet
The only factor possibly stopping TYPHOON TAAVI continuing upon her winning way is the switch of venues from Doomben to Eagle Farm however personally I don't think it will make an ounce of difference. She'll cross these comfortably & roll along with her high cruising speed before going for home in the straight, good luck running her down. ALL STASHED UP is racing very well & must be included in the placings as should TAAVI's stablemate ARGYLE PINK who is likely to chase her in the run.
Numbers: 3 – 7 – 4 – 2
Suggested Bet: TYPHOON TAAVI TO WIN.
RACE 4
Race is made tricky with the lack of a leader on the map. I'm going to lean to BLAKMAX who draws a perfect gate for Angela Jones. From there Angela will be able to sum up just how slow/fast things are early & park this bloke appropriately. He was good first up & tumbles 7.5kg on that performance, note his second up record. EVOCATOR a chance with a decent tempo, that's a query though. OUTLAWED at her best would win this, she just hasn't been in the same form this prep though, as yet anyway.
Numbers: 11 – 8 – 9 – 6
Suggested Bet: BLAKMAX EACH-WAY (small bet).
RACE 5
Similar to a couple of early races there's no clear leader here. The resuming WEIGALL TIGER does tend to take up a prominent position though & he certainly draws the right barrier to do just that. Trialled well, shows plenty of promise & goes so well for Cejay Graham. INHIBITIONS didn't fire in the heavy ground at Randwick, can improve sharply upon that based on her prior dry track form. Throw PIVOTAL LAD into exotics, held up & should have finished closer last start in albeit a much easier race.
Numbers: 4 – 2 – 12 – 5
Suggested Bet: WEIGALL TIGER EACH-WAY.
RACE 6
Plenty of speed in this race, they should go quite hard in front. Like the Team Snowden trained visitor EMBASSY who ran well in a couple of very good 2yo races down south before being given a short break. He's won a couple of trials in the lead-up to this & draws to park behind the speed before hopefully coming with a rush in the straight. PARETO created a huge impression winning on debut at the Sunshine Coast, harder here & that was on heavy ground, has to raise the bar today. Really liked the look of ESPINHO on debut in a Blue Diamond Preview down south, likely better out over further however one to definitely keep an eye on.
Numbers: 3 – 4 – 12 – 10
Suggested Bet: EMBASSY TO WIN.
RACE 7 Best Bet
WARBY has only had the one preparation for Tony Gollan & it was a successful one winning twice & only finishing further back than 4th on the one occasion & that was still a solid effort running on from an impossible position. Loved his recent trial, look for him to be bursting through the pack late. Stablemates IMMORAL & MUSCHIALLI both draw favourably & that's always key to their chances, include.
Numbers: 10 – 4 – 2 – 9
Suggested Bet: WARBY EACH-WAY.
RACE 8
First of our features is the Victory Stakes where the sprinters lock horns over 1200m. Good pace up front from Prince Of Boom & Front Page with Petronius also pushing forward. UNCOMMON JAMES likely lands 4th in a lovely stalking spot & will be launching his run in the straight, he might be a little vulnerable late however can dig deep & prevail. ANTINO the one most likely he'll have to hold off, his best work will definitely be late in the race. FRONT PAGE perhaps the best of those on pacers.
Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 8
Suggested Bet: UNCOMMON JAMES/ANTINO TO WIN.
RACE 9
We wind up the day with the Guineas which brings together a good mix of 3yo's both locally & from interstate. Distinct lack of speed on the map suggests many of the fancied runners who settle back midfield or worse may have their work cut out? I'm with PRESS LINK who can park closer than usual rising in distance & might be able to steal a march on some of those backmarkers early in the straight. Really like the look of EASY DUN however he draws poorly & is a get back type, he'll need tempo, will he get it? KINTYRE back in distance may make use of his good alley as he did last start on the bog track when winning on protest.
Numbers: 11 – 16 – 1 – 18
Suggested Bet: PRESS LINK EACH-WAY (small bet).
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