3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
CARLTON V GEELONG
Saturday 16 July @ MCG
If Friday night may seem an ordinary entrée, one of the main courses of the weekend is a cracker.
Carlton and Geelong contest a feature game for the first time in a long while. And contest could be the operative word. So many of the match ups are highly anticipated and hard to predict.
How does the Carlton defence handle Hawkins and Cameron? How does the Geelong backline contain Curnow and McKay? Who does a run with role on Dangerfield or Cripps?
This is technically a home game for Carlton but it's a ground both sides have played their home matches away from home at times.
Those Blues were only playing West Coast but the West Coast side circa June onwards is a better one than the witches hats from the start of the year when impacted badly by Covid.
While the opening stanza was a procession, the middle half of the game was a tight, contested, strong willed battle and it would have gone another way in the past for this team.
But 2022 is a new Carlton era. They don't panic. A bit like Melbourne last year, you have faith that at least they will be in the battle. And so it was as they piled on 46 points to nothing in the last. What a quirky game – West Coast did not score a single point in Q1 and Q4.
It is so hard to stop Charlie Curnow right now. With McKay as the fellow pillar, they are mighty hard to defend. You can't really tell who is Batman and who is Robin. 5 goals apiece was enough kill off the Eagles themselves.
They will need to be that productive as they face a Geelong team peaking up. Some would say they are peaking too soon?
The Cats were fantastic at home over the Premiers. Sure Melbourne had some injuries leading in and players underdone. But after the opening, where there was thrust and counter-thrust, parry and counter-parry, the wheel turned as the match progressed and they were going away late.
The use of Patrick Dangerfield is an enthralment. He did have issues earlier in the year but they have rolled the dice on being within striking distance upon his return. Well so much so that upon that, they now lead the Ladder.
His battle-ravaged body has had a mid-season freshen that it rarely can afford. Often by September he's been forced to play second fiddle to opposing big names and Geelong has suffered.
But this time could well be different. In many ways Joel Selwood is the same. Managed at times, he'll be given one last crack at hitting the heights at the right time. It has Bart Cummings come the old Mackinnon Stakes written all over it.
Of course they need Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola and others to fire but the class rises. Tack on the addition of the spice being Tyson Stengle and the improvements from Stanley and Blicavs and you have a dangerous mix.
That said their youthful defence has some incoming grenades about to be fired upon them. If the Carlton midfield does at worst cut even and at best get on top, it will take a great effort for Geelong to withstand.
The Blues are also a real momentum side, impacted heavily by the crowd reaction and that impression flows to all participants.
The trip home from Perth is not always easily overcome – tell that to Eagles and Dockers players over the years and they do it with regularity.
But we're still going to say this game also should be closer to evens your pick and given the odds on offer, we're happy to speck Carlton here.
Match Selection: Carlton by 9 points
Suggested Bets: Carlton @ $2.35
