3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
ST KILDA V ESSENDON
Friday 17 June @ Marvel Stadium
After such a wonderful start to the season, things could get a little tricky in the next few weeks for St Kilda and it starts this Friday against Essendon.
The Bombers need to find something and they'd love nothing more than to repeat what happened when they met last year.
That was the small measure of a 75 point margin at this very ground where a quarter time attack became a full game assault. The Saints had nothing but things are a bit different twelve months on.
While you can certainly punch many holes in what one of these two sides is doing, the other has some foibles too which may become more apparent.
St Kilda went into that Brisbane game last Saturday night with high hopes and at three quarter time, it was a complete toss-up.
But a casualty ward ensued. The Lions lost some important cogs with Gardiner and especially Zorko with a hamstring twinge – but they snared the ultimate spoils. It was the Saints that hard worse news.
Not only did they not win, they also saw Owens and McKenzie concussed but then Zak Jones had another repeat of his soft tissue issues. He does add a bit of 'mongrel' to their midfield on top of explosive pace but that gets restrained when hamstrings or calves become par for the course. He could still play but is that a risk worth taking?
Their midfield played pretty well all in all but when the ruckman didn't get on top, it meant the supply to King and Membrey was at best patchy. Bombing it into Max King sounds fine given he's 8 foot 12. But Brisbane just said we won't let him beat us so they double and even triple teamed him.
Not really sure Essendon have those luxuries this week. Their defenders are OK but get very little defensive help from those further up the field of play.
So often we see their mids struggling to two way run and get back to sure up the backline. Plus when those midfielders are all undersized by most metrics, the contest is just half the battle. They offer little marking potential as opposed to the likes of Dangerfield, Fyfe, Martin, Cripps etc at their best.
Peter Wright has done some serviceable things but is totally outmanned and without Jake Stringer to be regularly incisive and damaging with his thrusts from 60m out, Essendon just hasn't been able to kick a score. You can imagine them going after any of the larger forwards from other clubs in the next off-season for increased numbers if nothing else.
Being played indoors should help both teams a bit but more so St Kilda. They rely on that quality supply. They will also want to stop any talk of a possible snake down the ladder.
Best to attack from the start, get the Bombers playing catch up as any sniff you give an underdog (playing at home as well) can lead to danger.
Looking for St Kilda to win it early and stay there. Brad Crouch has had a very consistent year averaging over 27 possessions a match. Happy to back him to go a little higher and his team to win well enough.
Match Selection: St Kilda by 33 points
Suggested Bets: St Kilda/Brad Crouch 30+ possessions @ $2.45
