3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

GEELONG V MELBOURNE

Thursday 7 July @ GMHBA Stadium

For the second time in a few weeks, first plays second and in the end, it may well come to pass that this one is more reflective of being a better chance to be the Grand Final Preview.

By this stage of the season, Percentage is often a very good guide of ability (unless you've played North Melbourne twice).

Melbourne and Geelong are comfortably sitting at the top end of the market so we should get a cracking attacking game.

In a game that fluctuated wildly last round, the Demons were able to get home, pulling away from Adelaide late. You can either take the view it was a concern that the Crows were that close for that long or that it showed composure and confidence that Melbourne would get out of it.

They did so via some usual midfield subjects. Clayton Oliver, fresh off signing his 100-year contract, was at it again. We didn't hear Huddo screaming 'Give him a longer contract!' but that is what happened.

He's a club and competition dominating player so why not go that long? And we know with these contracts, player and club can change them at a whim if it's in the interest of both parties.

To see Petracca kick three is something top teams need. Not always are your key forwards going to be on top. They need help and they need the pressure off them. It also means defenders get drawn out and spreads the field as well.

That will be critical here as Geelong haven't big name experienced defenders and are also missing Tom Stewart for his recent indiscretion.

And heading up the road to Kardinia Park will be a fascinating place for such a fixture. Of course Geelong are happy to be playing at home but will that actually help them here?

They've struggled against Melbourne of late with it three blot in 2021. The Preliminary Final was a shocker, the last second defeat here and one earlier that season just emphasises that.

So it will be up to Geelong to change something. They brought Dangerfield back after his injury sabbatical and managed Selwood against the hapless Kangaroos. They're both back now.

It will be a matter of having all troops on deck at the business end and their aging group are being well evaluated through the 23 rounds.

Can the Melbourne defence handle Hawkins and Cameron off ten goals between them? Perhaps more to the point, can Geelong's attack land enough punches with Lever and May in command? A damp night makes it harder for the attackers.

Looking more to the other end of ground for the result. Geelong had no test playing witches hats last weekend. Wouldn't have mattered who was wearing the hoops.

Without Tom Stewart, reckoning here is the Demons might get a few more looks than they normally might. And now with Max Gawn and Luke Jackson poking heads into marking contests, it makes it even more uncomfortable.

If the Melbourne forwards have enough ball for either themselves or to bring it to ground for the likes of Fritsch and Pickett, that speed can cause Geelong dramas.

Tipping Melbourne to win and Bayley Fritsch to take advantage of that issue down back.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 16 points

Suggested Bets: Bayley Fritsch 3+ goals @ $2.20