3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of all games in the 2023 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE

Saturday 30 September @ MCG

We've arrived at the last hurrah and the teams that finished first and second on the ladder meet so theoretically that should only be right.

We've also seen this barn dance before as 2002 and 2003 seems an eon away and yet both sides have had a few hurdles in that time.

It pits Collingwood's pedigree and ferocious fervour driven by the locals against the invading Brisbane with their own Victorian heritage and desire to set the MCG record straight.

While those Lions have not been back to that last Saturday in September since the following year when they failed in the attempt at four on the bounce, the Pies were just five years back when they fell short courtesy of a late West Coast goal from Dom Sheed. That McGovern, Vardy, Ryan, Sheed chain was the stuff of legend.

Pressure of expectation is always a factor and Collingwood live with that most weeks. Remember when they once espoused the notion of 'blockbuster fatigue'.

Well, being a Grand Final, that is obviously as big as it gets and they have their own army for support. However you can bet most of the rest of Australia are wearing maroon, blue and yellow.

The Magpies have scrambled home in two finals and many would suggest they could have, should have and would have been beaten with a few things going their way last Friday.

For that last 10 minutes of the match nay a score was registered. From Jesse Hogan's goal in the 20th minute, the goal umpires had a kip. The sherrin had a force field around it and did not move between the 50m arcs.

Tackling pressure was certainly alive but was it legal? Jeepers there were some missed free kicks. It's all well and good for the game to flow with less intervention but if you get legged or tackled high, the whistle is required. It's like saying we might let a plumb lbw go because it's nice to watch a positive batsman.

GWS were a bit stiff but that won't mean much as the black and white side go side by side through the banner. One who brings in superb form is Jordan De Goey. He was in everything from the opening minute to the last – well almost the last as he was stuck on the bench for the last 10 minutes.

His 34 touches were so much more as he was attacking, ground gaining and incisive rather than just racking up the numbers. You can only imagine Brisbane will assign someone on him all day. Maybe Dunkley is the man.

The loss of Daniel McStay to the structure following his leg injury could be something you would never have thought was important even two weeks ago. It had given them a taller focal point where they don't really have one unless either the resting ruckman heads there or Howe goes forward.

Sad irony being McStay won't get to play for either side this week in a GF – his former and current sides.

Why that is even more important is Brisbane desperately want Harris Andrews to not have to engage as a defender but instead lag off and control like a sweeper in football. If Payne is back this week that will only help and that comes into notice late Thursday.

That defence was under enormous strain in the Prelim when Carlton got 5 goals up. You can only imagine the emotional stress that would have put into the favourites. But once they got one, they got two and it was levelled by half time.

From there they blew the Blues away and scored 5 more of their own to set up the winning margin. Reckoning though that they will need more than 11 goals in the Grand Final to beat Collingwood even though they haven't been as potent these Finals.

Will the Pies tag Brownlow man Lachie Neale? If he has a big game, that goes a long way to them winning. He ONLY had 19 in the Port game and 23 last week so hasn't been as prolific as he can be. If he turns it on then the rest will fire up.

Brisbane simply need to kick goals. They need to silence the 100,000 crowd and do it early. Collingwood aren't in scintillating form but they are at home. And that then becomes the narrative. Brisbane's MCG record - it has been and will be spoken until after the game whatever the result.

Since before the 2004 Grand Final up to now they have played 35 times at the 'G' for 5 Wins and a Draw. Now while they do play the big Melbourne Clubs there rather than at Docklands where they do go well, you can get the drift.

If the Pies get on a roll early as they did against GWS, but hit the scoreboard with more intensity, this could be over and fast. The longer it is close, the more the little man on the shoulders starts telling Collingwood this isn't supposed to happen.

Given we thought maybe Dunkley goes to De Goey, does that allow Daicos off the chain. He looked like he was being managed through the Prelim. No second chances here.

If you wake up on Sunday and Brisbane has won, Harris Andrews will likely have had a huge influence. His control and demeanour provides the rest with assurance. If he's had to take a man all day then they've been chasing the game.

A warm, fine day which is forecast could well suit the younger Lions midfield. Those ageing warriors like Pendlebury, Mitchell and Sidebottom can't be left hanging all game. So get them chasing early.

However they are smart players and by 4pm, it will be in shade most of the ground. So if Collingwood kick straight it could be on early. 15 goals will win it.

It must be said that Brisbane has won their last six over the Magpies. But a key component of that is NONE were at the MCG.

So we are tipping the Pies to take their first flag since 2010. Watch for the distributors off half back like Quaynor and Crisp to be highly influential and maybe Norm Smith worthy. If the Lions win, Andrews down back and Neale in the guts are the keys. They are worth a small play at the odds.

Enjoy the game folks. It will either be 'Side by Side' or it will be 'All for One and One for All'. But neutrals just want a good game.

Match Selection: Collingwood by 16 points

Suggested Bets: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20 with bet365 *

Suggested Bets: Norm Smith – Isaac Quaynor @ $71.00 with bet365 *

Suggested Bets: Norm Smith – Jack Crisp @ $29.00 with bet365 *

Suggested Bets: Norm Smith – Lachie Neale @ $7.00 with bet365 *

Suggested Bets: Norm Smith – Harris Andrews @ $34.00 with bet365 *

bet365 also have these additional Match Combos:-

Charlie Cameron and Jamie Elliott to combine for 3+ Goals @ $2.00 *

Joe Daniher and Brody Mihocek to combine for 3+ Goals @ $2.00 *

Nick Daicos or Lachie Neale to Win the Norm Smith Medal @ $3.00 *

*Odds correct at 9:00am 28/9/23

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