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Read our AFL expert tips and analysis for every game in this season of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s AFL betting expert Joel Cashman. Includes game summaries, AFL expert tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round.
BRISBANE VS CARLTON
The first Preliminary Final matchup of the weekend is expected to be the most one-sided matchup of Opening Round, with a strong line of 22.5 points.
Brisbane was flawless at the Gabba last season, winning all 13 games at home! However, they failed to cover the line as favourites at home in 6 of their last 8 matches at the venue - including the Prelim Final against Carlton.
Carlton have covered the line as underdogs in the opening round in both starts with Michael Voss as the coach.
Carlton found their groove in the back half of the season, winning 11 of their last 13 matches. It still feels too difficult to beat the Lions at the Gabba, but it wouldn't surprise to have a closer match then the odds are predicting.
Betting Strategy
LAY Brisbane (-22.5pts) @ $1.87 
GOLD COAST VS RICHMOND
Damien Hardwick will coach his first game for Gold Coast against the side he took to three Premierships in what will be an intriguing matchup. Most media outlets have Gold Coast as the most likely team to rise up the ladder and Richmond as the most likely to drop down and bottom out - this game will be an early indicator if these predictions are correct or not.
Richmond have lost their last three matches against Gold Coast, with all three being upsets.
With the Tigers missing Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch this opening round, it doesn't appear that trend will change.
Betting Strategy
GWS VS COLLINGWOOD
There will be plenty of spite in this Preliminary Final rematch, with the Pies being victorious by a solitary point to advance to the Grand Final last year to eventually become Premiers.
GWS will be hurting after another Prelim Final loss, but they will have their work cut out for them - with the Magpies rarely seen as the underdogs.
Collingwood has started their season well under Craig McRae, winning the opening round as underdogs the last two years - including a 22-point win over reigning Premiers Geelong last year.
GWS were one of the form teams of the competition last year and they will be a premiership threat once again this year. However, when playing at home in 2023, the Giants only covered the line in 4 out of 12 matches last season.
Betting Strategy
BACK Collingwood (+6.5) @ $1.87 
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