3 minute read
Read our AFL expert tips and analysis for every game in this season of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s AFL betting expert Joel Cashman. Includes game summaries, AFL expert tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round.
ADELAIDE VS PORT ADELAIDE
Adelaide have won three of their last four Showdown matches against the Power, starting all three games as the underdog. They won both clashes last season by margins of 31 and 47 points.
The Crows have looked a lot better in the last three weeks compared to their start to the season, defeating the Blues at Marvel and securing a much-needed big win against the Kangaroos in Hobart.
Port Adelaide have been securing wins – with a 3-1 record in the last month- however, they have been well restricted in their scoring in recent weeks. In the last three games, they have averaged only 76 points.
The Crows on the other hand have found their scoring power, averaging 104 points in their last 3.
With Skipper- Connor Rozee a strong chance to miss with a hamstring injury, the Crows may be in stall for another upset.
Betting Strategy
Adelaide Line (+10.5 pts) @ $1.87
CARLTON V COLLINGWOOD
Carlton have had a lot of strike power in their forward half this season, leading them to become one of three sides to average 100+ points per game.
Since 2022 when Craig McCrae has taken over as coach, the Magpies have conceded 90+ points on 15 occasions for a 3-12 record- including 3 losses this season.
The Blues potent forward line will be a handful for the Magpies who haven't been able to start well. Collingwood have trailed during the opening term in their last two weeks, with margins extending to 31 points against Port and 29 points to Essendon. If they give the same chances to the Blues they will make the most of them.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Carlton at $1.60 +
SYDNEY VS GWS
In the last four Sydney Derby's, there has been an average of 187.5 total match points.
GWS and Sydney rank first and second for points this season, averaging 107 and 104 points respectively. Both sides have been very efficient in their forward lines, ranking first and second this season for scores per inside 50.
GWS matches have gone over the total in 3 of the last 4 weeks. Matches involving the Giants average 186 points, the third most in the AFL.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Total Points Over 147.5 pts @ $1.87
ST.KILDA V NORTH MELBOURNE
North Melbourne have failed to cover the line as the underdog in their last six straight matches, including three matches at their home Marvel Stadium.
St Kilda have won their last four matches against North Melbourne, all played at Marvel.
The Saints haven't proved themselves to be a finals contender this year, but have performed admirably enough to see they can punish the Kangaroos- defeating the reigning Premiers-Collingwood and four of their losses coming to current top-8 sides and being by 10 or less points.
Betting Strategy
BACK- St Kilda Line (-36.5 pts) @ $1.87
MELBOURNE VS GEELONG
The Cats look the team to beat at this stage, passing every test so far on their way to a perfect 7-0 record. Geelong's ball use was a class above the Blues, who threw everything they had at them but were still able to win by 13 points.
Geelong has won their last two against Melbourne by 15 and 28 points.
Melbourne bounced back from after their loss to Brisbane at the MCG with a four-quarter effort against Richmond, but still don't have the assets forward of centre to challenge the Cats. The Demons have only cracked 100+ points once this season and average only 74 points in the last three weeks.
Betting Strategy
LAY- Melbourne @ $2
WEST COAST VS ESSENDON
Essendon were one of the mystery teams of the competition early in the season, with their performances fluctuating from week to week, but they have now strung together three solid games yielding two wins and a draw against the reigning Premiers- Collingwood on ANZAC Day.
West Coast were handed a reality check to the tune of a 37-point defeat to Gold Coast after two impressive wins. Their wins came against Fremantle and Richmond- two sides who have struggled to kick a winning score this year. The Eagles have conceded 100+ points in all five of their losses this year.
Essendon's ability to score and transition quickly will come to their advantage against the Eagles.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Essendon @ $1.54
RICHMOND VS FREMANTLE
Fremantle have the third best defense this season based on points conceded, averaging 70 points against this season, making their games total very low. Matches involving Fremantle have been the lowest scoring of any side, with an average of 149 total match points.
The last four Richmond games have averaged 148 total match points. Their own inability to score is the main reason for this, scoring 42, 70, 60 and 82 points during this time.
These sides have competed in some low scoring affairs in previous seasons, with the total match points coming to 155, 104, 106 and 85* (2020 with 20% less game time).
Betting Strategy
BACK- Total Points Under 163.5 pts @ $1.87
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS HAWTHORN
After the Western Bulldogs have had big losses, they have responded the following week. They were able to back up from a 45-point loss in Round 1 to Melbourne with a 48-point win against the 2-0 Suns. Following an embarrassing 29-point loss to Essendon, the Bulldogs put St Kilda to the sword- winning by 60 points.
After losing to Fremantle by 24 points last start, the Bulldogs could come out snarling against the lowly Hawks to prove a point. The Bulldogs have covered the line as favourites in 2/3 games this season.
Hawthorn have failed to cover the line as the underdog in five out of six times this season.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Western Bulldogs Line (-24.5 pts) @ $1.87
BRISBANE VS GOLD COAST
Gold Coast are yet to win a game outside of Carrara this season, with all three of their losses taking place away and by an average margin of 43 points.
Brisbane have won nine of the last 10 Q-Clashes including their last five straight at the Gabba.
The Lions were poor the last time they played at the Gabba; however, the rainy conditions didn't allow them to play their brand against the top-of-the-table Cats. Now with a 10-day break after their last belting against the Giants, the Lions should be good enough to secure their third win of the season.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Brisbane @ $1.47
AFL TIPS AND BETTING STRATEGIES
Welcome to Betfair's AFL Tipping page for 2024! You will find AFL previews, betting tips and strategies for the 2024 premiership season from our team of footy experts. With 18 teams in the AFL, 24 rounds this season made up of 207 matches, the team at Betfair is here to help you navigate the season from a betting point of view. We'll be providing our expert picks for every game and once the regular season is over and we are left with 8 finals teams, the tips don't stop there as we've got you covered for the finals series as well.
Each week, we'll be putting out betting advice for every game of the round including best bets for the week, value picks, lay tips and player prop selections. These will range from margin picks, first goal scorers, who to bet at the line and of course who the Betfair team think will win each game. When making their weekly AFL tips, our experts will look at recent form, statistics from throughout the season, historical trends and rely on their developed betting knowledge giving you informed selections backed up by data.
The latest AFL tips will be posted on this page each week as teams get released for the round as the in and outs of each team can dramatically impact who wins a game of football. This is why it's also important to keep an eye out for late changes teams may swing, and adjust your betting strategies accordingly. For example, if a key defender is out, the opposing team's key forward might be due for a big game.
A great feature of Betfair is that you'll be able to put our tips on the Betfair Hub to use on the Betfair Exchange as not only does Betfair provide expert betting content, we are also a betting exchange where punters can bet against each other. You've got a wide range of AFL markets on the exchange which our tips cover including futures markets like the premiership market, top 4, top 8, wooden spoon and much more.
Our tipping content is tailored to the unique features you'll only find on the Betfair Exchange making it the perfect place to action the tips you'll find on this page. Simply click on the blue and pink widgets next to the tips depending on whether you want to back or lay the tip, and you'll be taken straight to the correlating market on the exchange where you can place your bets.
Not only have we got weekly footy tipping content, but Betfair also has a wide range of AFL related betting articles that'll keep you informed throughout the 2024 football calendar which you can find here. So what are you waiting for? Kick your AFL season into gear with premium AFL betting tips thanks to the Betfair Hub. Play your way with Betfair.
