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Read our AFL expert tips and analysis for every game in this season of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s AFL betting expert Joel Cashman. Includes game summaries, AFL expert tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round.
CARLTON VS MELBOURNE
Carlton have lost three of their last four matches, but they are definitely playing top-4 football- losing in the final minute to Collingwood, scoring 105 points against the then undefeated Cats and securing a win against GWS.
Melbourne's football this season has been strong as ever with a 6-2 record; however, their lack of firepower up forward may be exposed against the Blues who boast two Coleman Medalists in the front half.
The Blues have won seven of their last nine at the MCG, including two wins against Melbourne during this time.
Betting Strategy
LAY: Melbourne at $1.80
GEELONG VS PORT ADELAIDE
The Cats may have stumbled for their first loss of the season last start, but they will hold no fears against the Power at GMHBA Stadium.
Under Ken Hinkley's reign, Port Adelaide are yet to defeat the Cats at home, holding a 0-4 record.
Geelong have won nine of their last 10 home and away matches against Port Adelaide.
With Port Adelaide missing their skipper and 2x All Australian- Connor Rozee- they will struggle to hurt the Cats through the middle of the ground.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Geelong @ $1.30
FREMANTLE VS SYDNEY
Sydney moved into Premiership favouritsm with an impressive win against the Giants which made it four straight victories for the Swans.
Fremantle have turned their form around after a Derby loss to West Coast by winning their next two matches. However, they came against the Western Bulldogs and Richmond who haven't proven themselves as genuine finals threats. The Dockers have also lost three of their last four matches against Sydney.
The Dockers are yet to defeat a side that is currently in the top-8.
The Swans have done well when taking the trip out west, winning their last three matches at Optus Stadium.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Sydney @ $1.65
HAWTHORN VS ST.KILDA
Hawthorn have won five of their last seven matches at UTAS Stadium, a much better strike rate than any other venue over the last three seasons.
The Hawks looked much improved in their victory against the Western Bulldogs last week for their first upset victory of the year.
St Kilda haven't handled favouritsm too well this year, failing to cover the line as favourite in three out of four matches- the only time they covered it was against North Melbourne by two points.
Hawthorn upset the Saints last season by 10 points in Round 11.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Hawthorn Line (+9.5 pts) @ $1.87
ESSENDON VS GWS
Essendon has been heavily underrated this season, starting as the underdog in six out of eight games- the only times they have started favourites was against Hawthorn and West Coast.
Out of these six games they have been underdogs, the Bombers have covered the line on five occasions- the most of any side this year.
GWS didn't fare well the last time they played at Marvel Stadium, losing to Carlton by 19 points.
The last time these two sides played at Marvel, the Bombers were victorious by 13 points in 2023.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Essendon Line (+7.5 pts) @ $1.87
RICHMOND VS WESTERN BULLDOGS
Richmond have had great difficulty scoring this season, and as a result have had many matches going under the total.
Matches involving the Tigers have gone under the total in four of the last five weeks. During this time their average match points has only been 148.
Richmond have failed to score 100+ points this season, and their last month has seen them score just 49, 42, 70 and 60 points.
The Western Bulldogs don't play particularly well at the MCG, losing four of their last five there- meaning they won't be as high scoring and free flowing as they would be at their home Marvel Stadium under the roof.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Total Points Under 167.5 @ $1.87
GOLD COAST VS NORTH MELBOURNE
Gold Coast have won their last four matches at TIO Stadium in Darwin- including wins against Adelaide and Western Bulldogs last season- by an average margin of 40 points.
The last time these two sides played at this venue, Gold Coast won by 62 points.
Gold Coast have won three of their last four matches against North Melbourne with winning margins of 43, 62- which occurred at TIO Stadium- and 67 points.
North Melbourne have failed to cover the line as the underdog in their last seven straight matches. In their eight losses this season, the average losing margin has been 50 points.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Gold Coast Line (-43.5 pts) @ $1.87
COLLINGWOOD VS WEST COAST
Collingwood look to be back to their best, going undefeated since their Round 3 loss to St Kilda. Their last three matches have come against current top-8 sides, getting away with two wins and one draw.
Collingwood have won two of their last three against the Eagles, with those two wins coming at margins of 63 and 45 points.
On all four occasions this season where West Coast have played away, they have failed to cover the line as the underdog. They have lost by margins of 50, 65, 76 and 37 points.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Collingwood Line (-39.5 pts) @ $1.87
ADELAIDE VS BRISBANE
Adelaide and Brisbane were two of the highest scoring sides last year and were the most frequent for their total match points to hit overs. However, this season they find themselves as two of the lowest scoring teams to play against.
Six of the last seven matches Brisbane have played in have gone under the total. The average points for a Brisbane game is 148 points- the second lowest in the AFL.
Four of the last six Adelaide matches have hit unders and the average points for their matches this season is 153 points.
The last three matches the Crows have played at Adelaide Oval have gone under the total.
Betting Strategy
BACK- Total Points Under 168.5 @ $1.87
AFL TIPS AND BETTING STRATEGIES
Welcome to Betfair's AFL Tipping page for 2024! You will find AFL previews, betting tips and strategies for the 2024 premiership season from our team of footy experts. With 18 teams in the AFL, 24 rounds this season made up of 207 matches, the team at Betfair is here to help you navigate the season from a betting point of view. We'll be providing our expert picks for every game and once the regular season is over and we are left with 8 finals teams, the tips don't stop there as we've got you covered for the finals series as well.
Each week, we'll be putting out betting advice for every game of the round including best bets for the week, value picks, lay tips and player prop selections. These will range from margin picks, first goal scorers, who to bet at the line and of course who the Betfair team think will win each game. When making their weekly AFL tips, our experts will look at recent form, statistics from throughout the season, historical trends and rely on their developed betting knowledge giving you informed selections backed up by data.
The latest AFL tips will be posted on this page each week as teams get released for the round as the in and outs of each team can dramatically impact who wins a game of football. This is why it's also important to keep an eye out for late changes teams may swing, and adjust your betting strategies accordingly. For example, if a key defender is out, the opposing team's key forward might be due for a big game.
A great feature of Betfair is that you'll be able to put our tips on the Betfair Hub to use on the Betfair Exchange as not only does Betfair provide expert betting content, we are also a betting exchange where punters can bet against each other. You've got a wide range of AFL markets on the exchange which our tips cover including futures markets like the premiership market, top 4, top 8, wooden spoon and much more.
Our tipping content is tailored to the unique features you'll only find on the Betfair Exchange making it the perfect place to action the tips you'll find on this page. Simply click on the blue and pink widgets next to the tips depending on whether you want to back or lay the tip, and you'll be taken straight to the correlating market on the exchange where you can place your bets.
Not only have we got weekly footy tipping content, but Betfair also has a wide range of AFL related betting articles that'll keep you informed throughout the 2024 football calendar which you can find here. So what are you waiting for? Kick your AFL season into gear with premium AFL betting tips thanks to the Betfair Hub. Play your way with Betfair.
