3 minute read

With The Masters at Augusta National just a fortnight away, the stars of the PGA Tour head to the American south to take on the Houston Open at the Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course beginning on Thursday, March 28.

The event was last played in 2022 with American Tony Finau claiming the title with a tournament record 264 (-16) to win by four strokes from Tyson Alexander. World number one Scottie Scheffler heads a strong field which includes Wyndham Clark, Will Zalatoris, Jason Day and the aforementioned Finau.

It's hard to look past Players Championship victor Scheffler (11/4) for the title, but those odds are extremely short considering the number of high-priced contenders that topped the field at last week's Valspar Championship – where we picked out Xander Schauffele to finish top 10.

Scheffler, however, has the statistics and form to back his heavy favouritism. He has two tournament wins, six top 10 and seven top 25 finishes in seven events this season, and leads the PGA Tour in shots gained (2.821), scoring average (67.41), par fours (3.82), birdie average (5.48), greens hit in regulation (77.78%) and putting average (1.668).

On a Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course that ranks top 10 in difficulty on the PGA Tour, a skilled striker like Scheffler is likely to feature at the top end of the field. The 4/5 price for a top five finish is, however, quite short.

Instead, we look to the outsiders, form players and statically strong contenders who could land in any number of the top finishers markets.

Valspar Championship winner Peter Malnati is a handsome 125/1 to repeat in Texas. After starting the year by missing four of five cuts, the American boasts T9 and T68 finishes in March - in addition to his victory last week.

His strength is his putting – he's sixth in shots gained (0.825), 12th in one-putt percentage (44.44%), 23rd in putts per round (28.24) and 37th in putting average (1.729). He also ranks fifth in par fours (3.91) - with 10 par fours on offer in Houston. 11/8 to finish Top 40 is strong value.

Those looking for a consistent performer to contend could pick Tom Hoge who has 31 under par rounds in 10 events played in 2024, making 9 of 10 cuts in the process. Hoge has Tied-17, T6, T17, 8 and T12 finishes across the past eight tournaments.

The numbers back an outside wager, his approach play ranks extremely highly with solid numbers on the green also. He's 19th in scoring average (69.30) and 24th in birdie average (4.54), so a Top 20 finish is possible at a 21/10 price.

Others to consider in the finishes markets include Keith Mitchell (Top 20, 8/5), Doug Ghim (Top 40, Evens) and Aaron Baddley (Top 40, 21/10)

Best Bets

Tom Hoge to finish Top 20 – 21/10

Keith Mitchell to finish Top 20 – 8/5

Doug Ghim to finish Top 40 - Evens

Aaron Baddley to finish Top 40 – 21/10