3 minute read
The San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions will square off at Levi Stadium on Sunday, January 28 for a place in Super Bowl LVIII.
The Niners only just survived a 24-21 thriller with the Green Bay Packers. Quarterback Brock Purdy led a fourth quarter comeback capped by a Christian McCaffrey six-yard run with just one minute left remaining on the clock.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-23 with rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs the star of the show recording 114 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
San Francisco is a –7.0-point favourite to win the NFC Championship Game – the 49ers have won 11 of their 14 victories this season by eight or more points, including five of six victories at home. Detroit, meanwhile, has lost just two games by eight points or more this season – to Baltimore and Chicago.
The Niners are 10/13 to score 30 points or under, which seems a reasonable bet given the franchise has failed to achieve that mark in seven home games out of nine this season. Detroit has allowed just two teams to tally 30+ in nine away matches.
The Lions, meanwhile, have scored under 20.5 points (20/21) in four of nine away contests in 2023 – a seemingly well-set line. San Francisco has kept their opponents to under that mark in five of its home outings this season.
In the players props market, Niners' running back Christian McCaffrey is the star man amassing 2,023 all-purpose yards and 21 touchdowns throughout the regular season, adding 128 yards and two scores in the Divisional Round. McCaffrey has 13 performances of 100+ all-purpose yards, touchdowns in 14 games, and multiple touchdowns in six outings this season.
His quarterback Purdy has hit the 274.5 passing yard line (10/11) seven times in 17 starts, but goes against the 27th-ranked pass defense during the regular season. He has multiple touchdowns passes in 9 of 17 games and interceptions in six games this season – including three multi-pick games.
Tight end George Kittle is an outstanding talent – both as a run blocker and pass catcher. He has an Over/Under line of 60.5 receiving yards, a mark he has hit 10 times in 2023, including in four of his last six starts. He is also 21/20 to record five or more receptions, a target he has reached just five times this term.
Defensively, it was a down year for pass rusher Nick Bosa with just 10.5 sacks on the season. He's 13/10 not to record a sack, a solid price given he has zero sacks in his past four games.
For Detroit, Jared Goff has had somewhat of a renaissance since leaving the Los Angeles Rams. Goff is 10/11 to top 263.5 passing yards, a line he has hit in 11 games this season, including five of the last six starts. He has 10 multi-touchdown performances in 2023, and has eight games with interceptions – including three multi-pick games.
His main receiving target is wide receiver Amon-Ra St Brown. The former USC star has amassed over 75 receiving yards (10/17) in six straight games - and 14 times this season – whilst also tallying six or more receptions (5/19) in 15 games of 18 this season – combining those markets is 5/7. He also has TD receptions in six of his last eight starts and zero multi-touchdown games on the season.
Parlay – Brock Purdy to throw for 250 passing yards and two touchdowns, Jared Goff to throw for 250 yards and two passing touchdowns, Christian McCaffrey to record 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown and Amon-Ra St Brown to record six receptions, 75+ receiving yards and a touchdown – 11/1
