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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS VS ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Underdogs cover at 60% when two teams from outside the Top 8 so the natural starting points should be the Dragons. That is confirmed with teams off a double digit win prior to a bye covering at 67% the last six years. With the Dragons covering six of their last nine away from their suburban home grounds, they look a nice bet getting more than a try.
Betting Strategy
BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA +4.5 @ $1.75 or better
With the Dragons covering six of their last nine away from their suburban home grounds, they look a nice bet getting more than a try.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS VS WESTS TIGERS
The Tigers team is certainly looking plenty thin with Justin Olam, Brent Naden and Starford To'a all out, joining a long list of sidelined players that includes John Bateman and Aidan Sezer. Saying all that, the Cowboys certainly cannot be trusted. They are 2-7 against the spread when favoured by 8.5 or more and they have not covered three straight when a favourite of more than a converted try at home. The Tigers have covered nine of 13 against the Cowboys and 10 of 17 when a double digit underdog.
Betting Strategy
BACK WESTS TIGERS +12.5 @ $1.70 or better
The Tigers have covered nine of 13 against the Cowboys and 10 of 17 when a double digit underdog.
MANLY SEA EAGLES VS MELBOURNE STORM
Melbourne are close to the best of the round now Jahrome Hughes has been cleared to play. That covers the absence of Cameron Munster well enough. Manly have named Touatau Koula at fullback but he is unlikely to play. Lehi Hopoate is expected to debut. This is a bang-up spot for the Storm with teams off scoring 48-plus covering at 67% the last four years. With the Storm covering 26 of 41 against teams outside the Top 8 and Manly horrific without Tom Trbojevic, Melbourne look a super bet down to -7.5.
Betting Strategy
BACK MELBOURNE -3.5 @ $1.70 or shorter
Melbourne are close to the best of the round now Jahrome Hughes has been cleared to play.
CANBERRA RAIDERS VS SYDNEY ROOSTERS
The Roosters have endured a week of drama and look to be in a real worrying situation this week that should see the Raiders run them close. Interstate double digits favoured off a loss cover at just 29% in the opening 12 rounds while the Chooks have covered just seven of 24 when favoured by 10 or more points. Canberra have covered seven of 11 against the Roosters and look poised to add another cover, if not a win at big odds.
Betting Strategy
BACK CANBERRA +11.5 at $1.70 or better
The Roosters have endured a week of drama and look to be in a real worrying situation this week that should see the Raiders run them close
CRONULLA SHARKS VS PENRITH PANTHERS
Cronulla have swept all before them this year and are marching to locking in a Top 8 spot sooner rather than later but they look short enough against a Panthers team off a loss. Penrith have a remarkable record off a defeat, covering 14 of 17. They have covered nine of 11 off conceding 22-plus points. The Panthers are rarely odds-against so even without Cleary they look the bet.
Betting Strategy
BACK PENRITH +2.5 at $1.80 or better
Penrith have a remarkable record off a defeat, covering 14 of 17.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS VS PARRAMATTA EELS
Parramatta fired their coach this week and handed the interim title to Trent Barrett and given his dire record as a head coach, they look up against it. Moses and Gutherson remain out and the Eels are desperately short of playmaking talent while they play a power game that died years ago. Ben Hornby has finally made the call he had to make by moving Jack Wighton to the halves. Souths ended a long non-cover streak last week and have a great record against the Eels and should be much shorter than they are.
Betting Strategy
BACK SOUTH SYDNEY at $1.75 or better
Souths ended a long non-cover streak last week and have a great record against the Eels and should be much shorter than they are.
BRISBANE BRONCOS VS GOLD COAST TITANS
The Titans look a nice bet in their derby with the Broncos, particularly with star Brisbane fullback Reece Walsh no certainty to be playing despite being named. Underdogs off conceding 28-plus in Rounds 7-12 cover at 60% while the Titans have covered six straight. Gold Coast have covered 11 of 17 in Queensland and 11 of 16 as a double digit underdog. This is a nice spot for the Gold Coast, who are perennially underrated in 2024.
Betting Strategy
BACK GOLD COAST +14.5 at $1.75 or better
The Titans look a nice bet in their derby with the Broncos, particularly with star Brisbane fullback Reece Walsh no certainty to be playing despite being named.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS VS THE DOLPHINS
The Dolphins are absolutely airborne and are not getting the respect they deserve. They leave Queensland for just the second time this year but this is a nice spot. They have covered 13 of 21 at night while the Warriors have covered just two of 10 at home and 14 of 35 off a win. The Dolphins are a nice bet.
Betting Strategy
BACK DOLPHINS at $1.75 or better
The Dolphins are absolutely airborne and are not getting the respect they deserve.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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