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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS V PENRITH PANTHERS
In what looks likely to be Jason Demetriou's last game, Penrith should run out comfortable winners over South Sydney but this number does look too big. Home underdogs off conceding 50 or more points cover at a ridiculous 79% and Souths will look much better was Cody Walker and Jack Wighton as the halves pairing.
Betting Strategy
BACK: SOUTH SYDNEY +14.5 at $1.80+
Penrith are an outstanding team but they are just 9-9 against the spread when favoured by 12.5 or more points away from home.
MANLY SEA EAGLES V CANBERRA RAIDERS
The judiciary is going to have a huge bearing on this one with the fate of Daly Cherry-Evans resting with the three-man panel. Betting such a low line assumes Cherry-Evans won't escape a ban but even if he is missing this line seems skinny. Manly have won and covered nine of the last 12 meetings including a 42-14 win when these teams last met.
Betting Strategy
BACK: MANLY -8.5 at $1.75+
The Sea Eagles have covered five of six at Brookvale while the Raiders are just a 40% cover team outside of the ACT.
BRISBANE BRONCOS V SYDNEY ROOSTERS
The Broncos and Roosters shapes as the match of the round and while a case can be made for the Chooks, it is impossible to go past the irresistible Broncos. Brisbane have covered 13 of their last 15 night games and eight of nine at Suncorp. The Roosters can sing on their day but consistency has been an issue, notably covering just 3 of 13 off a win.
Betting Strategy
BACK: BRISBANE -5.5 at $1.80+
When off a win of 13-plus, Brisbane have covered 17 of 25.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS V WESTS TIGERS
The Bulldogs are riding high, starting a week inside the Top 8 outside of March for the first time since Round 10, 2017. They are well rested and likely get Jacob Preston back this week while the Tigers have faded as injuries bite with star Api Koroisau in some doubt this week. The Tigers cover at just 40% off a double digit loss.
Betting Strategy
BACK: CANTERBURY -7.5 at $1.70+
Canterbury have scored 22-plus in their last four against the Tigers have covered their last four day games.
GOLD COAST TITANS V MELBOURNE STORM
Gold Coast broke their duck last week with a super win over the Warriors in Auckland but have a far more difficult task this week when they host the red-hot Storm. Melbourne have won 13 of the last 15 clashes, scoring 32 or more points in their last four against the Titans. Gold Coast have covered just nine of 22 at home.
Betting Strategy
BACK: MELBOURNE -13.5 at $1.70+
Interstate favourites off scoring 50-plus cover at 69% while the Storm are 25-14 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS V DOLPHINS
The Dolphins continue to be hit hard by injury but are hoping to get some relief this week with Connelly Lemuelu a chance of returning. It has not all been smooth sailing though for the Cowboys with Tom Chester the latest injury to hit. The Cowboys have covered just 8 of 23 off a loss and 4 of 12 against Top 8 teams.
Betting Strategy
BACK: DOLPHINS +8.5 at $1.80+
The Dolphins have covered 4 of 5 off a loss
LAY: NORTH QUEENSLAND at up to $1.40
The Cowboys have been wildly inconsistent this year and look likely to get into a flat spot this week after exerting so much to get Penrith last week yet coming up short.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS V NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
The market continues to overrate the influence Kalyn Ponga has on the Knights from a betting perspecitve. The Knights cover at 58% without him and 44% with him suggesting the market overreacts to his absence and the rest of the Knights stop relying on his individual brilliance. The Warriors have covered just 13 of 35 as a favourite and at a clip of just 42% away from Mt Smart.
Betting Strategy
BACK: NEWCASTLE +2.5 at $1.75+
Newcastle have covered 7 of 10 at home.
CRONULLA SHARKS V ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
Cronulla have dominated this matchup but two numbers suggest this is a great spot for the Dragons. Teams off conceding 60-plus are 17-3 against the spread since 2008 while favourites of 12.5 or more in day games just a 43% cover proposition.
Betting Strategy
BACK: ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA +12.5 at $1.70+
In this rivalry and with Shane Flanagan up against his old team for the first time, the Dragons should have enough in them to cover the big start.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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