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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
Expert Tips NRL
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NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS VS CANBERRA RAIDERS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Canberra +7.5 at $1.70 or better
Canberra project to be a very poor team this year but getting 7.5 points in Round 1 is utterly ridiculous. Round 1 underdogs of a converted try or more cover at 68%. The Raiders are also historically fast starters, going 9-1 in Round 1 the last decade. With the underdog having covered eight straight in this matchup, Canberra are a very good bet.
BACK CANBERRA
7/3/2024 - 2.30 pm
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS VS CRONULLA SHARKS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Cronulla +4.5 at $1.85 or better
The Warriors enter 2024 with plenty of momentum after last year and signing Roger Tuivasa-Sheck but laying 4.5 in Round 1 is too much, particularly with star fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad absent. Last year the Warriors went 9-3 against the spread with him and 5-10 against the number without. The Sharks have covered six of nine against the Warriors.
BACK CRONULLA
8/3/2024 - 12:30 pm
MELBOURNE STORM VS PENRITH PANTHERS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Melbourne +3.5 at $1.85 or better
Confidence is not super high on Melbourne here but given their astonishing Round 1 history under Craig Bellamy, they are the value against the three-time premiers. The Storm have won 14 of 15 Round 1 games and covered six of the last seven. Ryan Papenhuyzen is back and the Panthers, for all their talents, are just 15-14 against the spread interstate. If the full Storm spine plays, they can win.
BACK MELBOURNE
8/3/2024 - 2:35 pm
PARRAMATTA EELS VS CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Canterbury +6.5 at $1.75 or better
Parramatta have a dominant record against Canterbury and the Bulldogs have completely reworked their team but the Eels are vulnerable here. Underdogs of at least six points cover at 68% in Round 1 and that supersedes the Eels covering five of the last six against the Bulldogs. The Eels have also failed to cover their last four Round 1 matches.
BACK CANTERBURY
9/3/2024 - 12:00 pm
GOLD COAST TITANS VS ST. GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: St. George Illawarra +5.5 at $1.70 or better
The Dragons enter the season favoured for the wooden spoon but it is stunning to see them getting such a big start against a Titans team that has plenty to prove and missing their most dynamic player in second rower David Fifita. Round 1 underdogs of at least a try cover at 64% while the Titans have covered just 1 of 5 when favoured by more than a try the last two years.
BACK ST GEORGE
9/3/2024 - 2:05 pm
LAY: Gold Coast at $1.65 or shorter
LAY GOLD COAST 1.57
9/3/2024 - 2:05 pm
THE DOLPHINS VS NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Dolphins +5.5 at $1.70 or better
The Dolphins are the best of the week as a big home underdog against the Cowboys. Home underdogs of at least a try in the opning four rounds cover at 66% and it is notable that the Dolphins covered their opening four games last season before injury.
BACK DOLPHINS
10/3/2024 - 10:35 am
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK PENRITH PANTHERS 4.3
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
BACK SYDNEY ROOSTERS 8
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
LAY BRISBANE BRONCOS 5.4
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK MELBOURNE STORM 2.7
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
BACK CRONULLA SHARKS 3.7
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
LAY BRISBANE BRONCOS 3
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK CRONULLA SHARKS 1.85
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
BACK THE DOLPHINS 2.5
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
LAY NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS 2.48
6/10/2024 - 12:30 pm
NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE – NRL TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
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