Search

show me:

Betfair Hub: Expert Tips - NRL Round 5

3 minute read

Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!

Picture: Racing and Sports

MELBOURNE STORM V BRISBANE BRONCOS

There is no bigger dominance in the NRL that what Melbourne has over Brisbane. The Storm have won 31 of the last 36 meetings and have scored 30-plus in 11 of the last 14. In the last 33 meetings, Melbourne have covered 25. With interstate teams off a win covering at just 37% in the opening eight round the last four years and Melbourne 8-4 against the spread at AAMI off a loss, the Storm are a confident play.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Melbourne -4.5 at $1.75 or better

With interstate teams off a win covering at just 37% in the opening eight round the last four years and Melbourne 8-4 against the spread at AAMI off a loss, the Storm are a confident play.

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS V SYDNEY ROOSTERS

Big home underdogs early in the season are automatic bets and that is the case this week with the Bulldogs getting double digits against the Roosters. That is a ridiculous line. Home underdogs of at least four points in the opening eight rounds of the year cover at 64%. Road favourites of eight or more off a loss cover at just 33%. The Bulldogs are a great bet this week.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Canterbury +10.5 @ $1.65 or better

Home underdogs of at least four points in the opening eight rounds of the year cover at 64%. Road favourites of eight or more off a loss cover at just 33%. The Bulldogs are a great bet this week.

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS V ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

No way should Newcastle be as short as they are. Take away the backend of last season when they caught fire and the Knights have barely won a game over the last three years. Bottom four teams favoured by a try or more cover at just 35%. The Knights have covered just five of 15 when favoured by at least 4.5 points. Lay, lay, lay the Knights.

Betting Strategy

BACK: St. George Illawarra +5.5 at $1.85 or better

LAY: Newcastle at $1.60 or shorte

Bottom four teams favoured by a try or more cover at just 35%. The Knights have covered just five of 15 when favoured by at least 4.5 points. Lay, lay, lay the Knights.

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS V NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS

The eye test suggest Souths are in for a long afternoon here but a dive into the numbers make a fairly compelling argument that they are over the odds as a home underdog. The Bunnies have won 14 of the last 15 against the Warriors and covered 17 of 23. Interstate teams off a win cover at just 37% in the opening eight weeks of the season while the Warriors have covered just six of 15 when favoured in Australia.

Betting Strategy

BACK: South Sydney at $1.80 or better

The Bunnies have won 14 of the last 15 against the Warriors and covered 17 of 23. Interstate teams off a win cover at just 37% in the opening eight weeks of the season while the Warriors have covered just six of 15 when favoured in Australia.

MANLY SEA EAGLES V PENRITH PANTHERS

Don't underestimate the Panthers, even with Nathan Cleary sidelined. Brad Schneider showed he is more than capable in running the team and the Roosters were much tougher outs than Manly will be. Penrith have covered nine of 13 without Cleary and notably are 25-14 against the spread when not a double digit favourite. The Panthers have won eight straight against the Sea Eagles and can continue their dominance.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Penrith -3.5 at $1.70 or better

Penrith have covered nine of 13 without Cleary and notably are 25-14 against the spread when not a double digit favourite. The Panthers have won eight straight against the Sea Eagles and can continue their dominance.

DOLPHINS V WESTS TIGERS

The Dolphins have bounced back from their opening round embarrassment with two impressive wins that have them top of the table. They get a great chance to make it three straight against the Tigers. The Dolphins have covered 16 of 27 off a win and four of six when favoured. It is notable that interstate teams off a win in the opening eight rounds of the year cover at just 37% the last four seasons.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Dolphins -3.5 at $1.70 or better

The Dolphins have covered 16 of 27 off a win and four of six when favoured. It is notable that interstate teams off a win in the opening eight rounds of the year cover at just 37% the last four seasons. 

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS V GOLD COAST TITANS

North Queensland have panels on the Gold Coast and if they are on their game they will win this by a big amount. The Cowboys are the biggest favourites of the season so far but the line is not big enough. The Cowboys have covered 12 of 17 against the Titans while the the Cowboys are excellent as a huge favourite, covering 29 of 42 when a double digit elect.

Betting Strategy

BACK: North Queensland -15.5 at $1.70 or better

The Cowboys have covered 12 of 17 against the Titans while the the Cowboys are excellent as a huge favourite, covering 29 of 42 when a double digit elect.

CANBERRA RAIDERS V PARRAMATTA EELS

Not the easiest game to finish off the week. Parramatta have had the best of it in recent meetings with five wins in the last seven. Teams off conceding 36 or more in the first eight rounds have covered at just 39%, a big cross against the Raiders. They have also covered just 13 of 42 when favoured.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Parramatta at $1.90 or better

Teams off conceding 36 or more in the first eight rounds have covered at just 39%, a big cross against the Raiders. They have also covered just 13 of 42 when favoured.

NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Betting Strategy

BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+ 

This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.

BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+

This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.

LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter

Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.

BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+

Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.

BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+

Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.

LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter

Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.

BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+

Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.

BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+

Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.

LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter

Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.


Racing and Sports

Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au